07‏/12‏/2008

07‏/12‏/2008

Forex Systems Trading Signals Outlook

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Forex Systems Trading Signals Outlook
DailyFX+ Algorithmic Currency Trading Signals – Pay special attention to attractive Breakout and Momentum trades through the near term, as they should continue to outperform in current forex trading market conditions. Our “Range” signals currently show less promise, and traders should underweight or proceed with caution with any such trade ideas.
Dynamic Carry Trade Basket – Please see our weekly report on Carry Trades for a better idea on what to expect through short-term trade: Forex Carry Trade Outlook.

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Definitions__________________________________________
Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past three months of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range. Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near quarterly lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s quarterly range. Range High – 90-day closing high.
Range Low – 90-day closing low.
Last – Current market price.
Strategy – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.

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Discretionary Currency Trading Report Outlook

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Discretionary Currency Trading Report Outlook
Speculative Sentiment Index Trading Signals – Our Speculative Sentiment Index trading signals have seen clear improvement as of late, as major currencies have embarked on fairly extended trends. Trading the SSI typically is most effective during strongly trending markets, and the prospect of continued price trends bodes well for these signals. Visit our Forex Trader Sentiment and Positioning Thread on the FX Forum to discuss these signals.
Picking Tops and Bottoms – This difficult-to-classify strategy has performed well as of late, and we see little reason to shift our bias away from these trades. Anecdotally, times of highly volatile ranging markets have produced poor results in these trades, while low-volatility trends will tend to improve the performance of these currency trading signals.
Pairs to Range Trade – Major currencies continue to break out of their medium term trading ranges, and we would advise against placing too much weight on range trading strategies. The typical high-risk/low-reward range trade tends to underperform in strongly trending markets.

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Forex Trading Signals Likely to Outperform On Strong US Dollar Moves

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Forex trading conditions continue to point to breakouts in the US dollar and other major currencies, and we forecast that Breakout and Momentum trades will continue to outperform through the week ahead. New algorithmic Currency trading signals from DailyFX+ are well-positioned to take advantage of these moves, as our systems trading desk provides timely trade ideas for specific market conditions. Given challenging currency market outlook, we would underweight range trading market strategies and concentrate on higher-reward trending and breakout currency trades.

Preferred Forex Trading Strategies
The recent spike in volatility leaves our current bias leaning towards Breakout trades, and we will take advantage of “Breakout” signals from our new DailyFX+ Currency Trading page. In terms of DailyFX Analyst reports, we continue to favor Speculative Sentiment Index-based trades, while Jamie Saettele’s “Picking Tops and Bottoms” report likewise continues to perform respectably. We would underweight DailyFX+ “Range” signals, while similarly placing caution on any trade ideas from the DailyFX “Pairs to Range Trade” report.

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The Day Trade Forex System

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If you are still searching for the right Forex trading strategy, then you’ll probably like the free ebook that I added to my site today: The Day Trade Forex System by Erol Bortucene and Cynthia Macy. The strategy, which is offered in this book, is for intraday usage and won’t probably fit the more long-term trading style. The strategy is an indicator-based one: moving averages, Bollinger bands, parabolic SAR, MACD histogram, RSI and stochastic are the components of this system. All the necessary conditions for the entry/exits and other market situations are described with the provided examples. Trading in trends, breakouts and swings is also explained. All examples given in this book are made on the Visual Trading platform from CMS Forex broker. The book itself also promotes this broker, but that doesn’t really matter if all you want is to learn a new potentially profitable day trading system.

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Bottom Formed on EUR/USD?

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Bottom Formed on EUR/USD?

EUR/USD continue to rise today for the third straight day on the stock market optimism that was earlier based on the Citigroup bail-out and now on a new plan worth $800 billion to unfreeze the lending in the U.S. financial system. Fundamental reports from the United States that were released today didn’t impact Forex rates much. EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.3029.
Preliminary value for the Q3 U.S. GDP decline was revised downwardly to 0.5% from 0.3% drop released almost a month ago. It was expected by the market participants and didn’t affect the EUR/USD rate.
Consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in November - from 38.8 to 44.9. That’s a clear positive news for the global financial markets, but probably not for the U.S. dollar. The consensus forecast for the current month’s value was at 39.5.

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Abundance of Fundamental Reports from U.S. Causes EUR/USD to Correct

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EUR/USD declined today after rising for three consecutive days as many macroeconomic reports were released in the United States. EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.2939 after reach as high as 1.3080 yesterday.
Durable goods orders decreased by 6.2% in October after declining by 0.2% in September (revised down from the 0.8% gain). The orders were expected to decline by no more than 2.5%.
Initial jobless claims declined to 529,000 last week after being reported at 543,000 (revised up from 542,000) a week before. They declined by a little more than the analysts expected.
Personal income rose by 0.3% in October after gaining 0.1% in September (revised down from the 0.2% increase). It was expected to gain 0.1% in October. Personal spendings decreased as expected — by 1%, following the 0.3% decline in September.
Chicago PMI fell to the lowest level since April 1982 in November — from 37.8 to 33.8. According to the median forecast by the market analysts it should have risen to 38.5.
University of Michigan consumer confidence index slid from 57.6 (revised down from 57.9) to 55.3 in November — only 3.6 index points above its absolute minimum level recorded in May 1980. Forecasts show that the traders expected the index to go up to 58.0.
New home sales decreased to an annually adjusted rate of 433,000 in October down from 457,00 in September (revised down from 464,000). Market participants expected a decline to 450,000.
U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 7.3 million barrels during the last week. This growth followed 1.6 million barrels increase recorded a week before.

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GOMarkets — Australian Broker with CFD, Shares and Futures Trading

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GOMarkets is a regulated Australian Forex broker that offers not only Forex market, but also CFD, shares and futures trading. Information about this broker was added to my site today. It offers MetaTrader 4 platform and also its own trading platform — GOTrader. They started offering the on-line Forex trading services in 2008. They support accounts with just $100 starting capital and offer micro-trading lots. Wire transfer, BPAY, credit cards and PayPal can be used for the funds transfers. Overall, if you are interested in Forex, CFD and shares trading in one broker, along with the low minimum, MT4 platform and PayPal deposits, GOMarkets is a good choice for you. If you are from Australia then it will be even better for you.

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Forex Capital Trading — Forex Broker with Browser-Based Platform

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Forex Capital Trading
is another Forex, broker based and regulated in Australia, that was added to my site. This broker isn’t very new — it’s went on-line in late 2006. Unlike several previous newly added Forex brokers, Forex Capital Trading doesn’t offer MetaTrader 4 platform — and it is one of its main disadvantages. Instead, this broker provides its own web-based trading platform that can be run directly from your browser, including the one in your laptop or any other kind of a mobile PC. Unfortunately, not all traders enjoy trading via the browser, especially if they can’t use their favorite expert advisors. Another problem is that this browser-based platform requires Internet Explorer or a special plug-in installed on other browsers to work properly. Forex Capital Markets offers trading accounts starting with $100 (which can be deposited via wire transfer, PayPal and credit card). The leverage is flexible and varies from 1:1 to 1:300

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ATC Brokers — U.S. ECN Forex Broker

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ATC Brokers is a new Forex broker whose description was added to my site today. It’s a regulated U.S. broker, registered with both NFA and CFTC. ATC Brokers offer ECN Forex trading with the low variable interbank spreads (usually — 1 pip on EUR/USD) but they also charge commission per trade since the spread doesn’t compensate their services. This broker offers both MetaTrader 4 platform and Currenex (the advanced ECN platform) for traders to choose from. The trading with MetaTrader can be started with $3,500, 1:100 leverage and mini-Forex lots, while the Currenex platform would require $35,000 minimum and will allow only standard lots on 1:50 leverage. The deposit and withdrawal methods are very limited with ATC Brokers — they accept only wire transfers and checks.

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ATC Brokers — U.S. ECN Forex Broker

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ATC Brokers — U.S. ECN Forex Broker

ATC Brokers is a new Forex broker whose description was added to my site today. It’s a regulated U.S. broker, registered with both NFA and CFTC. ATC Brokers offer ECN Forex trading with the low variable interbank spreads (usually — 1 pip on EUR/USD) but they also charge commission per trade since the spread doesn’t compensate their services. This broker offers both MetaTrader 4 platform and Currenex (the advanced ECN platform) for traders to choose from. The trading with MetaTrader can be started with $3,500, 1:100 leverage and mini-Forex lots, while the Currenex platform would require $35,000 minimum and will allow only standard lots on 1:50 leverage. The deposit and withdrawal methods are very limited with ATC Brokers — they accept only wire transfers and checks.

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New Forex Tool — Risk and Reward Calculator

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New Forex Tool — Risk and Reward Calculator

A new on-line Forex toll was added to my site today. It’s a calculator for the risk and reward levels and ratio based on the Fibonacci retracements. To use this tool you just need to enter the values for the local maximum and minimum levels and the current price. It automatically calculates the 0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracements and offers the recommended take-profit and stop-loss levels based on these values. The reward-to-risk ratio is also calculated, providing a useful indicator for the worthwhileness of opening the position in the current market situation. The positions are better to be opened if the current price is close to the 0.382 Fibonacci level. As with all other on-line Forex tools offered on my site, you can freely save this risk and reward calculator to your PC and run it without accessing the site on-line. If you have some questions or proposals regarding this tool, you can leave a comment here or contact me directly.

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MetaTrader Forex Broker

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Windsor Brokers is a Forex broker company based in Cyprus and regulated by both Cyprus Securities and Exchanges Commission and the British Financial Services Authority. You can now find the detailed description of this broker on my site. Windows Brokers offer their services on-line since 2002. This broker provides MetaTrader 4 platform with the possibility of micro-trading. The leverage can be set to 1:200 (for micro-trading) and 1:100 (standard and mini). Windsor Brokers also provide futures, oil, CFD and index trading services. Unfortunately there are no convenient payment options to fund the account with this broker and the Forex spreads are slightly higher than the market’s average — e.g. the spread on EUR/USD pair is 3 pips instead of 2 pips as with the majority of other MetaTrader Forex brokers. The necessity to send the signed documents via the snail-mail to establish a trading account is also a significant disadvantage when you compare Windsor Brokers to its competition.

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Economy Drive Dollar Up

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Mixed Reports on Economy Drive Dollar Up

EUR/USD currency pair declined today after showing a moderate growth yesterday. The macroeconomic statistics from U.S. was mixed today — both positive and negative news barely influenced the market. EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.2637, still inside the yesterday’s trading range.
ADP employment report showed a drop by 250,000 jobs in November following a decline of 179,000 (revised up from 157,000) in October. The median forecast for the decline in November was at 200,000.
Productivity gain in the non-farm business sector was upwardly revised for the third quarter of 2008 — from 1.1% to 1.3%, while the market strategists expected a downward revision to 0.9%.
ISM services index surprised traders with an extreme decline from 44.4 to 37.3 in November, while the forecast was only at 42.0. It’s the lowest level this index has ever reached.
Crude oil inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels last week in U.S.This change followed an increase by 7.3 million barrels a week before.

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EUR/USD Up after Employment and Factory Orders Reports

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EUR/USD Up after Employment and Factory Orders Reports

EUR/USD rose today after posting a slight decline yesterday and trading in the negative zone for the most of the day as the ECB cut the interest rate and some mixed fundamental reports from U.S. arrived. EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.2794.
Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell in U.S. last week — from 530k (revised up from 529k) to 501k. According the forecast by the market strategists, the claims should have been up to 540k.
European Central Bank cut the main refinancing rate from 3.25% to 2.50% today. A cut by 50 to 75 basis points was expected by the markets.
Factory orders decreased by 5.1% in October after contracting by 3.1% in September (revised down from 2.5% decline). It was well over the analysts’ estimates that averaged at 4.5% decrease.

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Forex Technical Analysis for 12/08—12/12 Week

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EUR/USD trend: hold.GBP/USD trend: hold.USD/JPY trend: sell.EUR/JPY trend: sell

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Arab Financial Brokers — Kuwaiti Forex Broker

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Arab Financial Brokers (or simply AFB) is a Forex broker located and regulated in Kuwait. As its title suggests AFB is created by the Muslim traders for the Muslim traders and it’s offering all the respective services — including the no-interest trading accounts. Of course, non-Muslim Forex traders are also welcome to join Arab Financial Brokers and they will also gain the advantages (and also disadvantages) of their no-interest accounts. The broker offers MetaTrader 4 platform with mini-trading and leverage up to 1:200. But the minimum account size isn’t very low — $2,000 (though, sometimes they are accepting smaller accounts on special occasions). The spreads are slightly above the market average — for example, EUR/USD is bade with a 3 pips spread. Another problem with Arab Financial Brokers is the lack of the comfortable funds transfer options — the only one supported is the bank wire transfer.

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Forex Articles

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Three new articles from the author that is well-presented on my site were uploaded today. Marquez Comelab writes mostly about obscure topics related to the Forex trading. I can recommend the following articles for both experienced and beginning Forex traders:
The Power of Small Consistent Returns — Explains the difference between earning small and large consistent returns over the long periods of time. Finding balance between risk and return can be hard, but getting always too small rewards isn’t a good experience too.
The Advantages of Trading Alone — Some traders prefer to trade in groups, some like to share their experience with others, some like to ask for advices, but some traders prefer to trade alone. Are you one of them?
I am Happy with My System, What’s Next? — Having problem «finishing» your system development? Do you constantly change your completed system when you think that it’s trading wrong? That’s a big problem for some traders (and it’s becoming a problem for me currently). Read this article for the ideas on how to leave your successful system alone

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