29‏/04‏/2009

forex learning videos

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learn forex :PIVOTS AND THE FOREX

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The Pivot techniques work well in markets with a wide daily trading range, such as the Forex. Pivot lines steers traders away from “no man’s land” and identifies “high activity” areas in which the equity has a high probability of reversal. These areas are important trading zone watched daily by floor traders and computer trading systems.
The levels for the trading ranges and pivots are the support and resistance levels of the market in the next time interval. It is important to note that the predicted levels only give the range in the next time interval.
They do not indicate when the levels will be reached by the currency price action. The pivot is a level at which the underlying asset can be expected to change direction and/or move rapidly away from.

DAILY PIVOT DATA
My pivots program provides not only Pivot, R1, R2, S1, and S2, but also the M1, M2, M3, and M4 points as well. It is common to find many traders calculating only the Pivot, R1, R2, S1, and S2 levels.
In the Forex market, however, you will find my additional points of support and resistance to be very significant indeed. These pivot data points are published daily and is available for access to you once you start the course. The Forexmentor video course also shows you how to calculate the Pivot points using our proprietary Pivot Calculator.
After you have calculated the pivot numbers for the day, place horizontal lines on your 15 minute and 1 hour charts at the pivot numbers for the day, or at least as many lines as your chart has room for. These pivot points will guide your trading throughout the day.

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learn forex : PIVOT POINTS

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My trading system is based on pivots.
Pivot points are targets, or mile markers, used for assessing price movement and determining direction.
If you’re unfamiliar with pivot points and how I use them, below is an overview
Pivot points are rarely understood and even rarely used by the Forex trader.
However, they are gaining in popularity, once traders realize there is nowhere else to turn.
Used by professional floor traders, pivot trading is one of the oldest and most valuable technical trading methods available.
Professional traders calculate pivot points in preparation for each trading sessions.
The pivot lines system is an indispensable guide for making profitable decisions.
For an active trader, the pivots can mean the difference between winning and losing.

WHY PIVOT POINTS WORK
Pivot points are 'super-sized' resistance and support levels.
They are more important than normal resistance and support levels because they're objective, and it’s not easy to ‘read back into the data’ what a trader may be subconsciously looking for. Many indicators and pattern recognition systems used in technical analysis are subjective and prone to human error.
For example, two traders drawing Fibonacci lines might take entirely opposite trades because a Fibonacci line does not inherently contain rules for objectivity.
The same goes for Elliot Waves (very prone to ‘oh that was the 2nd wave!’) and other common systems.
Common technical analysis indicators like Parabolic SAR, EMA and others generate so many false signals it again becomes difficult to be objective in choosing combinations of indicators and knowing when to execute.
This is why objectivity is the pivot points system’s greatest strength, as it takes the analysis out of the trader’s hands, and puts it in the capable, mathematical hands of the computer.
Why are pivot points so good at forecasting short-term price levels? Pivot points are reflective of both short-term volatility and trader psychology

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Why Does My Currency Trading System Work and Others Don't?

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The reason is quite simple.
ALL professional traders, be they trading for themselves or for banks, financial institutions, funds, and the such like, adhere to the concept of support and resistance, which is the premise behind my system.
When you see price violate a pivot point convincingly, there are automated trading systems out there that automatically kick in and buy or sell, depending upon where price is going.
So, in essence, these two factors alone account for why other indicators are left breathing dust. Bar patterns, MACD divergence, different time frame readings, and trendlines are definite precursors to price changing direction but, in the final analysis, where price is in relation to its nearest pivot point, is the big clue.
Tie all these indications together, and you are sure to out-fox price's next move.

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learn forex : Master Pivot Point Trading system you will be benefit from it.

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Pivot Point trading system is based on support and resistant levels by using pivot points. It shows the entry and exit signals which gives traders a firm analysis strategies. It is no longer like the tradional hand writing pivot system while this is an easy and result orientation tools that you should never miss.

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learn forex

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FOREX or Foreign Exchange market is the world largest financial market, where currency of one country is exchanged with another country through currency exchange rate system. Trader’s purpose is to get the profit as the result of foreign currencies purchase and sale. From latest assessment, Forex trading daily constitution is approximately average from 1.5 trillion to 2.5 trillion. . The free-floating of currencies being in the market turnover are determined by the supply and demand. The currency rate is actually run through telecommunication all over the network of banks 24 hours a day from 00:00 GMT on Monday to 10:00 pm GMT on Friday. Importance of human society event in the sphere of economy strongly influences the currency market. Traders gain the profit from the fluctuations in accordance with an agreed principle “buy cheaper- sell higher” or “sell higher-buy cheaper”. Forex is a continuously changing number financial system which exclusively create high trade turnover to all individual and corporative traders with an ensured liquidity of traded currencies. Due to the high potential profitability, therefore the higher risk should be essentially considered. Traders can only be the successful forex investors by going through proper training including an understanding of forex structure and types, the common techniques of analysis, the factors influencing currencies and potential risks, high confident prediction of the market movements with the trading tools and data. There are lots of simulation trading software on web, you can simply choose anyone of them for self training. This will help you to be in a better scenario. Most of the trading providers have the toll free phone number, so just call them up! Ask them question! Learn from them! Some of them may take initiative to consult you, so do write down the question from time to time.
There are many countries in world; so results different currency pairs. Among all of them, these are the popular in currency trading:
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, CHF/JPY, GBP/CHF, EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, AUD/CAD, AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, NZD/JPY, GBP/AUD, AUD/NZD
Five Major Currencies are:
U.S dollar - The United States dollar is the world's main currency – an universal measure to evaluate any other currency traded on Forex.
Euro- Euro was designed to become the premier currency in trading by simply being quoted in American terms. Like the U.S. dollar, the euro has a strong international presence stemming from members of the European Monetary Union.
Japanese Yen- The Japanese yen is the third most traded currency in the world; it has a much smaller international presence than the U.S. dollar or the euro. The yen is very liquid around the world, practically around the clock.
British Pound - Until the end of World War II, the pound was the currency of reference. The currency is heavily traded against the euro and the U.S. dollar, but has a spotty presence against other currencies.After the introduction of the euro, Bank of England is attempting to bring the high U.K. rates closer to the lower rates in the euro zone.
Swiss Franc - Swiss franc is the only currency of a major European country that belongs neither to the European Monetary Union nor to the G-7 countries. Although the Swiss economy is relatively small, the Swiss franc is one of the four major currencies, closely resembling the strength and quality of the Swiss economy and finance.
To have a well focusing, you have to concentrate on less than 5 currency pairs( preferred the U.S. cross-currency pairs.)
Some traders see forex as a business, and some see it as a fortune. And even some traders think forex is an art. But anyway, its highly recommended to use pivot system in your trading plan or else you are trading blind.

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forex articles : How Forex Trading Works

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Currency trading is mainly about buy and sell activities. Currencies are traded on a price interest point (normally called pip) system. Every currency pair has their own pip value. The objective of a trader is to hold as many profitable pips as possible. Some pip values are fixed, but some can fluctuate depends on the currency gain or loses strength. Normally I trade by using margin trading, where small deposit is required to control much larger amount in the market. Here I will use 1 percent margin deposit so that $1000 control $100,000 of trade currency. $100,000 is the notional amount. Let me shows some major currency pair with the currency exchange rate and the pip values.

For GBP/USD, 1 pip movement can be from 1.7203 to 1.7204. That means from 1.7102 to 1.7202, it should be 100 pip movement. Lets look for another example, USD/JPY, 1 pip movement is from 117.82 to 117.83 and 100 pips movement is from 117.83 to 118.83.
Foreign Exchange Calculation
Below will show you how to calculate pip values.
Formula is (1 pip value/currency exchange rate) x (Notional Amount)
For GBP/USD, 1 pip value is 0.0001. Assume currency exchange rate is 1.7204. Notional Amount is GBP 100,000.
Therefore, (0.0001/1.7204) x GBP 100,000 = GBP 0.58
If we want to convert back to USD, then GBP 0.58 x 1.7204 and we will get $1
For EUR/JPY, 1 pip value is 0.01 . Assume currency exchange rate is 138.96. Notional Amount is EUR100,000 . EUR/USD=1.1789
Therefore, (0.01/138.96)x EUR 100,000 = EUR 7.20
If we want to convert back to USD, then EUR 7.20 x 1.1789= USD8.49

Make Profit in Forex Trading
Foreign exchange trading is mainly about buy and sell activities. The theory is slightly similar with share market. To make the profit, there is the only way which is buy at lower price and sell at higher price, or we can also sell at higher price first and buy at lower price. Is it very easy? It is actually not that difficult. What we need to do is to analyze the forex in a correct way and do the good trade. Together with good money management and proper guideline, I can say that success will be eventually more on your side.


Sometimes, trader involves in foreign exchange not because of make profit but just do not want to lose money. Let me take an example, A US Construction Company want to build a subway in India and it is going to take about 7 years with $50 million construction cost. The first thing this company will do is to hedge the dollar value of the project. By buying or selling US dollar against the future market value, no matter how big the amplitude of the fluctuation, the company will not lose any money.

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Interpreting Bar Charts

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. The opening price of a daily or a weekly bar usually illustrates the amateurs’ view of value. Research has shown that opening prices very often occur near the highs or lows of daily bars. Prices tend to recoil later in the day from the extremes set early on by the buying or selling of amateurs.
The actions of professional traders are often reflected in the closing prices of daily and weekly bars.
They become especially active near the close, taking profits to avoid holding positions overnight.
In bull markets prices often hit lows on Monday and Tuesday due to profit taking by amateurs and then rally to new highs on Thursday and Friday.
In bear markets prices often make new highs for the week on Monday and Tuesday and new lows then occur on Thursday or Friday.

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Interpreting Bar Charts

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. The opening price of a daily or a weekly bar usually illustrates the amateurs’ view of value. Research has shown that opening prices very often occur near the highs or lows of daily bars. Prices tend to recoil later in the day from the extremes set early on by the buying or selling of amateurs.
The actions of professional traders are often reflected in the closing prices of daily and weekly bars.

They become especially active near the close, taking profits to avoid holding positions overnight.
In bull markets prices often hit lows on Monday and Tuesday due to profit taking by amateurs and then rally to new highs on Thursday and Friday.

In bear markets prices often make new highs for the week on Monday and Tuesday and new lows then occur on Thursday or Friday.

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Don’t Overtrade!

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If you are experiencing a run of wins, don’t get getting carried away in the flush of success.

You don’t want to give it all back.
Over Trading is the greatest single cause for losses in the markets.

Whether you are winning now or losing now, ninety-five or more percent of all traders trade too often.
Even a daytrader trading a five minute chart has no need to trade every day nor to trade all day long.

You should be filtering your trades so that you take only the best of the best.
Overtrading was a problem that took me a long time to overcome because I did not know what I was looking for.

Overtrading is a very serious problem, and veteran traders learn to avoid it.

In fact, one way to know if a trader is a mature professional is to know if that trader conquered the problem of overtrading.
The biggest problem with overtrading is that you don’t even know you’re doing it.

You can overtrade by trading too many contracts (too much size), trading too often, attempting too many positions or sitting and staring at the screen all day.
One trader I met, who was following a system in twenty markets, received entry signals in fourteen of the twenty.

The entry prices were such that probably only two or three of them had any chance of being filled.

Yet this trader boldly called in to enter all fourteen orders.

After the first six, his broker refused to take any more orders.

Had they all been filled, the trader would have been several thousand dollars over margin.
Good traders immediately cut back on size when they are losing or have an equity draw-down.
The total commitment you make on any entry should be relative to a reasonable expectation of the profit potential for that trade.

Each trade is different and must be weighed on its merits.
How do you know how many contracts to trade? Certainly you are in a pickle if you always have to trade in single lots.

That is not to say that there are never times when a single lot is the right thing to do.

It’s okay when you’re scalping , or trading options .

However, wherever possible try to trade a least two contracts. You need one to cover costs, and the other to give you a profit.
If it’s late in the day and you are a daytrader who normally does a five lot, perhaps you should use a smaller size due to the fact that the trade hasn’t as much time to develop as one made earlier in the day.

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Forex Glossary

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A
Accrual - The apportionment of premiums and discounts on forward exchange transactions that relate directly to deposit swap (Interest Arbitrage) deals , over the period of each deal.
Adjustment - Official action normally by either change in the internal economic policies to correct a payment imbalance or in the official currency rate or.
Adjustment - Official action normally by either change in the internal economic policies to correct a payment imbalance or in the official currency rate or.
Appreciation - A currency is said to ’appreciate’ when it strengthens in price in response to market demand.Arbitrage - The purchase or sale of an instrument and simultaneous taking of an equal and opposite position in a related market, in order to take advantage of small price differentials between markets.Ask (Offer) Price - The price at which the market is prepared to sell a specific Currency in a Foreign Exchange Contract or Cross Currency Contract.
At this price, the trader can buy the base currency.
In the quotation, it is shown on the right side of the quotation.
For example, in the quote USD/CHF 1.4527/32, the ask price is 1.4532; meaning you can buy one US dollar for 1.4532 Swiss francs.At Best - An instruction given to a dealer to buy or sell at the best rate that can be obtained.
At or Better - An order to deal at a specific rate or better.
B
Balance of Trade - The value of a country’s exports minus its imports.
Bar Chart - A type of chart which consists of four significant points:
the high and the low prices, which form the vertical bar, the opening price, which is marked with a little horizontal line to the left of the bar, and the closing price, which is marked with a little horizontal line of the right of the bar.
Base Currency - The first currency in a Currency Pair.
It shows how much the base currency is worth as measured against the second currency.
For example, if the USD/CHF rate equals 1.6215 then one USD is worth CHF 1.6215 In the FX markets, the US Dollar is normally considered the ’base’ currency for quotes, meaning that quotes are expressed as a unit of $1 USD per the other currency quoted in the pair.
The primary exceptions to this rule are the British Pound, the Euro and the Australian Dollar.
Bear Market - A market distinguished by declining prices. Bid Price - The bid is the the price at which the market is prepared to buy a specific Currency in a Foreign Exchange Contract or Cross Currency Contract.
At this price, the trader can sell the base currency.
It is shown on the left side of the quotation. For example, in the quote USD/CHF 1.4527/32, the bid price is 1.4527; meaning you can sell one US dollar for 1.4527 Swiss francs.Bid/Ask Spread - The difference between the bid and offer price.
Big Figure Quote - Dealer expression referring to the first few digits of an exchange rate.
These digits are often omitted in dealer quotes.. For example, a USD/JPY rate might be 117.30/117.35, but would be quoted verbally without the first three digits i.e. "30/35".
Book - In a professional trading environment, a ’book’ is the summary of a trader’s or desk’s total positions.
Broker - An individual or firm that acts as an intermediary, putting together buyers and sellers for a fee or commission.
In contrast, a ’dealer’ commits capital and takes one side of a position, hoping to earn a spread (profit) by closing out the position in a subsequent trade with another party.Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944 - An agreement that established fixed foreign exchange rates for major currencies, provided for central bank intervention in the currency markets, and pegged the price of gold at US $35 per ounce.
The agreement lasted until 1971, when President Nixon overturned the Bretton Woods agreement and established a floating exchange rate for the major currencies.Bull Market - A market distinguished by rising prices.Bundesbank - Germany’s Central Bank.

C
Cable - Trader jargon referring to the Sterling/US Dollar exchange rate.
So called because the rate was originally transmitted via a transatlantic cable beginning in the mid 1800’s.Candlestick Chart - A chart that indicates the trading range for the day as well as the opening and closing price.
If the open price is higher than the close price, the rectangle between the open and close price is shaded.
If the close price is higher than the open price, that area of the chart is not shaded.
Cash Market - The market in the actual financial instrument on which a futures or options contract is based. Central Bank - A government or quasi-governmental organization that manages a country’s monetary policy.
For example, the US central bank is the Federal Reserve, and the German central bank is the Bundesbank.
Chartist - An individual who uses charts and graphs and interprets historical data to find trends and predict future movements.
Also referred to as Technical Trader.
Cleared Funds - Funds that are freely available, sent in to settle a trade.Closed Position - Exposures in Foreign Currencies that no longer exist.
The process to close a position is to sell or buy a certain amount of currency to offset an equal amount of the open position.
This will ’square’ the postion.
Clearing - The process of settling a trade. Contagion - The tendency of an economic crisis to spread from one market to another.
In 1997, political instability in Indonesia caused high volatility in their domestic currency, the Rupiah.
From there, the contagion spread to other Asian emerging currencies, and then to Latin America, and is now referred to as the ’Asian Contagion’.
Collateral - Something given to secure a loan or as a guarantee of performance.
Commission - A transaction fee charged by a broker.
Confirmation - A document exchanged by counterparts to a transaction that states the terms of said transaction.Contract - The standard unit of trading.
Counter Currency - The second listed Currency in a Currency Pair.Counterparty - One of the participants in a financial transaction.
Country Risk - Risk associated with a cross-border transaction, including but not limited to legal and political conditions.
Cross Currency Pairs or Cross Rate - A foreign exchange transaction in which one foreign currency is traded against a second foreign currency.
For example; EUR/GBPCurrency symbolsAUD - Australian DollarCAD - Canadian DollarEUR - EuroJPY - Japanese YenGBP - British PoundCHF - Swiss FrancCurrency - Any form of money issued by a government or central bank and used as legal tender and a basis for trade.Currency Pair - The two currencies that make up a foreign exchange rate.
For Example, EUR/USDCurrency Risk - the probability of an adverse change in exchange rates.

D
Day Trader - Speculators who take positions in commodities which are then liquidated prior to the close of the same trading day.
Dealer - An individual or firm that acts as a principal or counterpart to a transaction.
Principals take one side of a position, hoping to earn a spread (profit) by closing out the position in a subsequent trade with another party.
In contrast, a broker is an individual or firm that acts as an intermediary, putting together buyers and sellers for a fee or commission.
Deficit - A negative balance of trade or payments.
Delivery - An FX trade where both sides make and take actual delivery of the currencies traded.
Depreciation - A fall in the value of a currency due to market forces.
Derivative - A contract that changes in value in relation to the price movements of a related or underlying security, future or other physical instrument.
An Option is the most common derivative instrument.
Devaluation - The deliberate downward adjustment of a currency’s price, normally by official announcement.
E
Economic Indicator - A government issued statistic that indicates current economic growth and stability.
Common indicators include employment rates, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, retail sales, etc.
End Of Day Order (EOD) - An order to buy or sell at a specified price.
This order remains open until the end of the trading day which is typically 5PM ET.
European Monetary Union (EMU) - The principal goal of the EMU is to establish a single European currency called the Euro, which will officially replace the national currencies of the member EU countries in 2002.
On Janaury1, 1999 the transitional phase to introduce the Euro began.
The Euro now exists as a banking currency and paper financial transactions and foreign exchange are made in Euros.
This transition period will last for three years, at which time Euro notes an coins will enter circulation.
On July 1,2002, only Euros will be legal tender for EMU participants, the national currencies of the member countries will cease to exist. The current members of the EMU are Germany, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Austria, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Italy, Spain and Portugal.
EURO - the currency of the European Monetary Union (EMU).
A replacement for the European Currency Unit (ECU).
European Central Bank (ECB) - the Central Bank for the new European Monetary Union.
F
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) - The regulatory agency responsible for administering bank depository insurance in the US.
Federal Reserve (Fed) - The Central Bank for the United States.
First In First Out (FIFO) - Open positions are closed according to the FIFO accounting rule.
All positions opened within a particular currency pair are liquidated in the order in which they were originally opened.
Flat/square - Dealer jargon used to describe a position that has been completely reversed, e.g. you bought $500,000 then sold $500,000, thereby creating a neutral (flat) position.
Foreign Exchange - (Forex, FX) - the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another.
Forward - The pre-specified exchange rate for a foreign exchange contract settling at some agreed future date, based upon the interest rate differential between the two currencies involved.
Forward Points - The pips added to or subtracted from the current exchange rate to calculate a forward price.
Fundamental Analysis - Analysis of economic and political information with the objective of determining future movements in a financial market.
Futures Contract - An obligation to exchange a good or instrument at a set price on a future date.
The primary difference between a Future and a Forward is that Futures are typically traded over an exchange (Exchange- Traded Contacts - ETC), versus forwards, which are considered Over The Counter (OTC) contracts. An OTC is any contract NOT traded on an exchange.
FX - Foreign Exchange.

G
G7 - The seven leading industrial countries, being US , Germany, Japan, France, UK, Canada, Italy.
Going Long - The purchase of a stock, commodity, or currency for investment or speculation. Going Short - The selling of a currency or instrument not owned by the seller.
Gross Domestic Product - Total value of a country’s output, income or expenditure produced within the country’s physical borders.
Gross National Product - Gross domestic product plus income earned from investment or work abroad.
Good ’Til Cancelled Order (GTC) - An order to buy or sell at a specified price.
This order remains open until filled or until the client cancels.

H

Hedge - A position or combination of positions that reduces the risk of your primary position.
"Hit the bid" - Acceptance of purchasing at the offer or selling at the bid.

I
Inflation - An economic condition whereby prices for consumer goods rise, eroding purchasing power.
Initial Margin - The initial deposit of collateral required to enter into a position as a guarantee on future performance.
Interbank Rates - The Foreign Exchange rates at which large international banks quote other large international banks.
Intervention - Action by a central bank to effect the value of its currency by entering the market.
Concerted intervention refers to action by a number of central banks to control exchange rates.
K
Kiwi - Slang for the New Zealand dollar.

L
Leading Indicators - Statistics that are considered to predict future economic activity.
Leverage - Also called margin.
The ratio of the amount used in a transaction to the required security deposit.
LIBOR - The London Inter-Bank Offered Rate. Banks use LIBOR when borrowing from another bank.
Limit order - An order with restrictions on the maximum price to be paid or the minimum price to be received.
As an example, if the current price of USD/YEN is 117.00/05, then a limit order to buy USD would be at a price below 102. (ie 116.50)Liquidation - The closing of an existing position through the execution of an offsetting transaction.Liquidity - The ability of a market to accept large transaction with minimal to no impact on price stability.
Long position - A position that appreciates in value if market prices increase.
When the base currency in the pair is bought, the position is said to be long.Lot - A unit to measure the amount of the deal.
The value of the deal always corresponds to an integer number of lots.
M
Margin - The required equity that an investor must deposit to collateralize a position.
Margin Call - A request from a broker or dealer for additional funds or other collateral to guarantee performance on a position that has moved against the customer.
Market Maker - A dealer who regularly quotes both bid and ask prices and is ready to make a two-sided market for any financial instrument.Market Risk - Exposure to changes in market prices.
Mark-to-Market - Process of re-evaluating all open positions with the current market prices. These new values then determine margin requirements.Maturity - The date for settlement or expiry of a financial instrument.

N
Net Position - The amount of currency bought or sold which have not yet been offset by opposite transactions.
OOffer (ask) - The rate at which a dealer is willing to sell a currency.
See Ask (offer) priceOffsetting transaction - A trade with which serves to cancel or offset some or all of the market risk of an open position.
One Cancels the Other Order (OCO) - A designation for two orders whereby one part of the two orders is executed the other is automatically cancelled.
Open order - An order that will be executed when a market moves to its designated price. Normally associated with Good ’til Cancelled Orders.
Open position - An active trade with corresponding unrealized P&L, which has not been offset by an equal and opposite deal.
Over the Counter (OTC) - Used to describe any transaction that is not conducted over an exchange.
Overnight Position - A trade that remains open until the next business day.
Order - An instruction to execute a trade at a specified rate.

P
Pips - The smallest unit of price for any foreign currency. Digits added to or subtracted from the fourth decimal place, i.e. 0.0001.
Also called Points.Political Risk - Exposure to changes in governmental policy which will have an adverse effect on an investor’s position.Position - The netted total holdings of a given currency. Premium - In the currency markets, describes the amount by which the forward or futures price exceed the spot price.
Price Transparency - Describes quotes to which every market participant has equal access.
Profit /Loss or "P/L" or Gain/Loss - The actual "realized" gain or loss resulting fromtrading activities on Closed Positions, plus the theoretical "unrealized" gain or loss on Open Positions that have been Mark-to-Market.

QQuote - An indicative market price, normally used for information purposes only.
R
Rally - A recovery in price after a period of decline.
Range - The difference between the highest and lowest price of a future recorded during a given trading session.
Rate - The price of one currency in terms of another, typically used for dealing purposes.
Resistance - A term used in technical analysis indicating a specific price level at which analysis concludes people will sell.
Revaluation - An increase in the exchange rate for a currency as a result of central bank intervention.
Opposite of Devaluation.
Risk - Exposure to uncertain change, most often used with a negative connotation of adverse change.
Risk Management - the employment of financial analysis and trading techniques to reduce and/or control exposure to various types of risk.
Roll-Over - Process whereby the settlement of a deal is rolled forward to another value date. The cost of this process is based on the interest rate differential of the two currencies.
Round trip - Buying and selling of a specified amount of currency.
S
Settlement - The process by which a trade is entered into the books and records of the counterparts to a transaction. The settlement of currency trades may or may not involve the actual physical exchange of one currency for another.Short Position - An investment position that benefits from a decline in market price.
When the base currency in the pair is sold, the position is said to be short.
Spot Price - The current market price. Settlement of spot transactions usually occurs within two business days.
Spread - The difference between the bid and offer prices.
Square - Purchase and sales are in balance and thus the dealer has no open position.
Sterling - slang for British Pound.
Stop Loss Order - Order type whereby an open position is automatically liquidated at a specific price.
Often used to minimize exposure to losses if the market moves against an investor’s position. As an example, if an investor is long USD at 156.27, they might wish to put in a stop loss order for 155.49, which would limit losses should the dollar depreciate, possibly below 155.49.
Support Levels - A technique used in technical analysis that indicates a specific price ceiling and floor at which a given exchange rate will automatically correct itself.
Opposite of resistance.
Swap - A currency swap is the simultaneous sale and purchase of the same amount of a given currency at a forward exchange rate.
Swissy - Market slang for Swiss Franc.

T
Technical Analysis - An effort to forecast prices by analyzing market data, i.e. historical price trends and averages, volumes, open interest, etc.
Tick - A minimum change in price, up or down.
Tomorrow Next (Tom/Next) - Simultaneous buying and selling of a currency for delivery the following day.
Transaction Cost - the cost of buying or selling a financial instrument.Transaction Date - The date on which a trade occurs.
Turnover - The total money value of all executed transactions in a given time period; volume.
Two-Way Price - When both a bid and offer rate is quoted for a FX transaction.

U
Unrealized Gain/Loss - The theoretical gain or loss on Open Positions valued at current market rates, as determined by the broker in its sole discretion.
Unrealized Gains’ Losses become Profits/Losses when position is closed.
Uptick - a new price quote at a price higher than the preceding quote.
Uptick Rule - In the U.S., a regulation whereby a security may not be sold short unless the last trade prior to the short sale was at a price lower than the price at which the short sale is executed.
US Prime Rate - The interest rate at which US banks will lend to their prime corporate customers.

V
Value Date - The date on which counterparts to a financial transaction agree to settle their respective obligations, i.e., exchanging payments.
For spot currency transactions, the value date is normally two business days forward.
Also known as maturity date.
Variation Margin - Funds a broker must request from the client to have the required margin deposited.
The term usually refers to additional funds that must be deposited as a result of unfavorable price movements.
Volatility (Vol) - A statistical measure of a market’s price movements over time.
W
Whipsaw - slang for a condition of a highly volatile market where a sharp price movement is quickly followed by a sharp reversal.

Y
Yard - Slang for a billion.

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forex articles : 10% Of Traders Go Bankrupt

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was thinking about an article I read some time ago that 90% of traders who ever trade lose their account and that 10% actually go bankrupt. If the first number doesn’t scare you then the second definitely should.
Why is it then that there is such a large number of traders failing? It is not because they are stupid; in fact most traders have an above average IQ and are above average in most categories such as education and income. So why do they fail?
Lack of trading education!
By education I don’t just mean learning how RSI works or drawing lines on a chart. I mean thoroughly educating yourself in all aspects of your chosen profession. Educating yourself on the correct psychological approach to the market! Educating yourself in the correct risk management techniques relative to your account size. Educating yourself in the correct entry and exit methods for the trading style that suits you.
This, my friend, is where I hope to be of some help. I don’t have all the answers nor do I profess to be some kind of guru but I will do my best to point you in the right direction.
Common Misconceptions Of New Traders

They think they can trade consistently with an 80% accuracy.

They think they can turn $1000 into $100,000 in six months.

They think they can predict turning points in their given markets to within minutes.

They think they can buy a system that is 100% accurate.

They think they will quit their jobs and make a living full time after a few months of trading.

What’s the reason that so many new traders believe that trading is an easy way to make big profits? Propaganda!
We are continually bombarded in magazines, emails and the general media with claims of making astronomical amounts, just by applying the vendor’s latest method or system.
Don’t get me wrong, there is good stuff out there but the vast majority is not worth the price you pay. At www.surefire-trading.com I also recommend products but I have at least read the ebooks or courses and think they have some value to my subscribers and they all have a refund guarantee.
Fundamentals Of Trading
Trading is not an exact science. You can’t do X and get Y every time. It is as much an art as it is anything else. There is no magic formula. Trading is all about probability. It is the art of correctly applying a set of carefully thought out rules and allocating the probability of that event to result in success.
Each trade is an independent event. The market does not remember if you lost or made dollars the last time you traded.
The way you approach the market psychologically has as much to do with your success as any trading plan.
Risk management is crucial if you want to have any hope of becoming a successful trader.
Matching a method of trading with your personality is the only way you will ever feel comfortable in the markets.
An adequately funded account is necessary - not only to be able to take the trades you want, but also so you don’t feel every trade is a live or die situation.
The journey to the road of successful trading will make you confront your deepest fears. Your armor on this journey will be confidence, knowledge and belief in yourself that you can achieve your dreams.
Never, equate your success or failure in the markets with who you are as a person!
The Flaw In Our Emotions
As humans we have a natural tendency to try and influence our surroundings and events we take part in. This is one reason we, as a species, have succeeded but it is also one of the fundamental flaws we all have when trying to achieve success as a traders.
As traders we have to realize we have no control over the market and if we accept that then we have to accept that we can not influence the direction of the market.
The problem of course is we have a tendency to try and succeed and when inevitable losses come, it is easy to let those losses effect us emotionally. Becoming euphoric when you hit a winning streak is almost as detrimental as becoming depressed when you have a string of losses.
We as traders have to try and achieve the state of impartiality. We have to accept that we will have losses as readily as we will have wins. Reaching the stage where you can comfortably accept loss in the knowledge that your method of trading will produce profits in the longer term is the state we have to aspire to.
Risk Management
Whenever I think of risk management I always think of an article I read on 925 CTA programs between 1974-1995. It essentially confirmed what I have long held to be true. To summarize the report, of all the CTA’s who managed funds, the most consistently profitable were the ones with the best risk management systems.
To trade successfully you have to take a long look at yourself. Ask and answer the following questions.
How much equity do I need to start? How much should I risk on any one trade? Am I undercapitalized?
During the course of these lessons I will do my best to help answer these and other questions.
Entry And Exit
As a trader you will probably fall into two main categories, traders who like to trade the breakout and traders who like to join the trend once established. We could also add congestion traders, reversal type traders and mechanical signal traders but for the vast majority of traders you are going to fall into one of the two categories.
If you are a trend trader, you like to define a trend and then find a way in. This may be with the aid of fibonacci retracement levels, moving averages, Gann or one of the other many indicators available today. Your goal is to enter the trend as early as possible with the least amount of risk.
Breakout traders like to enter the market on the breakout of a previously identified range. This may be support/resistance areas, rectangles, triangles or one of the many other chart patterns. The secret to this type of trading is to determine a valid break.
In future lessons we shall begin to look at the more technical side of trading and how you can apply technical analysis to the markets to increase your probability of success.
Conclusion
During this lesson I have tried to give you a glimpse into the world of trading. I have also taken a slightly negative stance, as I don’t want you to get unrealistic expectations of what to expect.
On the more positive side, trading is a fascinating world, which will allow you to really exercise your brain. There is no other arena where you get to play with some of the best minds in the world on a level playing field.
Once mastered, if you can ever use that term then the possibilities are endless. Hopefully I can help you achieve your goals

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forex articles : Emini - Why does technical analysis work?

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Technical analysis describes different ways of predicting the future of the stock/futures market based on its history. Unfortunately, technical analysis is not an exact science. Many prominent scientists label it as "voodoo science". They claim that due to market efficiency, if you use TA to find your entry positions, you’re no better off than someone who chooses those positions randomly. Market efficiency means that all the available information is already calculated in the stock prices, and that you can only guess how the price will behave in the future.
The "voodoo science" theory would make sense if it wasn’t for the fact that there is a significant number of traders who are able to consistently make profits in the stock/futures market. These traders use technical analysis as their main tool. Since any trader has or can have access to the same TA tools we have to ask how can a small group of traders consistently win and the other larger group, more or less consistently lose in the stock market game. What is it that winning traders know about technical analysis that gives them the upper hand?
The answer is simple: Technical Analysis works but not necessarily for the reason most people believe. Many successful traders don’t want to share this secret. TA works because many people use it, and successful traders are able to predict how other people will react on the different TA indicators and signals. In other words, while the losing traders are using TA to determine their trades, the winning traders are winning because they know how the losers are going to react based on this data. For example, when a price goes below one of the key moving averages, (MA’s) many investors sell that instrument to protect themselves against additional losses. By doing so, they will drive the price of that instrument lower and that will prompt some traders to start short selling that instrument in anticipation of further decline. Prices continue the downward trend, forcing traders who were long on that stock to sell their positions because it is going below their stop limits. This creates a domino effect as the price continues to decline. However, at this point, successful traders realize that most of the current price action was created artificially. They start to enter positions on the buy side and more often than not price starts to reverse. The losing traders have already sold their contracts based on the TA tools. The winning traders buy the contract because they understand that the fluctuation was temporary, and they seize the opportunity based on the losing trader’s reactions.
No TA tool by itself will give you reliable buy or sell signals. There is no Holy Grail or magic black box that will give you the perfect, accurate signal. However, the combining of the right group of TA indicators with discipline and adequate trading capital has been the road to fortune for many traders. There is no reason why you cannot emulate their success. Let’s take a look at an example.
Understanding Pivot Points
Pivot Points are those price levels that are most likely to act as levels of support and resistance on any given trading day. As we already know, Technical Analysis works because many people use it. For the same reason, the most influential pivot points are those that are used by majority of traders. The most widely used formula for calculating pivot points is as follows:
H = previous day’s high

L = previous day’s low

C = previous day’s close
Pivot Point = (H + L + C)/3

Resistance = 2*PP - L

Support = 2*PP - H

Previous day’s last two hour high = L2HrHigh

Previous day’s last two hour low = L2HrLow
When the price moves through the known pivot point on increased volume it is most likely to continue current trend, and if the price hits the known pivot point but is unable to move through it is most likely to reverse the current trend.


Figure above is a 5-minute candlestick chart for S&P 500 E-mini contract and you can observe how the Pivot Point was acting as a major support line throughout the trading day.
When the advancing/declining price is not able to move through the known pivot point after two or more tries there is a good probability that it will start to decline/advance. Trading method in which a trader is waiting for a price to reverse after hitting S/R level is called swing trading. On the other hand if the advancing/declining price has easily moved through known S/R level there is a good probability that it will continue to advance/decline. Trading method in which a trader is looking for a price to continue to move in the same direction after moving through S/R level is called breakout trading.

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forex articles : Double Bottom Chart Patterns

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There are three favorable Chart Patterns to look for as an investor. They include the "Cup and Handle", "Double Bottom" and "Flat Base". This article will concentrate on the "Double Bottom" pattern which looks like the letter "W" as it develops. An example of a stock which had formed a Double Bottom pattern before breaking out to new 52 week highs was NVR in 2002.
NVR peaked in the Spring of 2001 and then sold off before making its 1st bottom in June (point A). From there it rallied into July (point B) but then sold off again and made a 2nd bottom in September (point C). After making the 2nd bottom NVR then rallied strongly again before stalling out near its previous Spring 2001 high and completed its Double Bottom "W" pattern. NVR then traded nearly sideways for 6 weeks and formed a Handle (H) before breaking out in late January of 2002 accompanied by strong volume (point D).
Each week we look for stocks which are exhibiting favorable chart patterns that have good Sales and Earnings Growth which may break out in the future and undergo significant price appreciation.

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forex articles : Using Elliot Wave Theory to Analyze the Stock Market

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Some market technicians that use technical analysis to look for a nearing market bottom or market top have noticed over the past several years that the stock market will consistently move in a 5 wave pattern which is based on concepts from Elliott Wave Theory. When the stock market is trending upward a 5 wave pattern consists of 3 separate moves upward and 2 separate moves downward before a top occurs. Meanwhile when the stock market is trending downward a 5 wave pattern consists of 3 separate moves downward and 2 separate moves upward before a bottom occurs.
Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq and S&P 500 and analyze their one year charts using concepts from Elliot Wave Theory. Notice how both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 made a bottom in late July of 2002 (points A) and then made 3 separate moves upward (A to 1, 2 to 3 and 4 to 5) followed by 2 separate moves downward (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) before topping out in late August after completing a 5 wave pattern.
Now notice what happened from late August until early October of 2002 as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 made 3 separate moves to the downside (5 to 1, 2 to 3 and 4 to 5) and 2 separate moves to the upside (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) before making a bottom in early October after completing a 5 wave pattern.
Meanwhile lets continue using Elliot Wave Theory an trace out the 5 wave pattern from early October of 2002 until early December of 2002 when the stock market made a top. Notice there were 3 separate moves to the upside (5 to 1, 2 to 3 and 4 to 5) and 2 separate moves to the downside (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) as well.
After the Nasdaq and S&P 500 topped out in early December they formed another 5 wave pattern as they made a bottom in mid March of 2003. Once again there were 3 downside moves (5 to 1, 2 to 3 and 4 to 5) and 2 upside moves (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) before the 5 wave pattern was completed in mid March.
Now I’m not an expert in Elliot Wave Theory but it looks to me that the Nasdaq and S&P 500 may be nearing the completion of another 5 wave pattern with a potential stock market top coming into play. Notice there have been 3 upside moves (5 to 1, 2 to 3 and 4 to 5) and 2 downside moves (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) since mid March through late May of 2008.



Adding concepts from Elliot Wave Theory is another tool investors can use to help predict when a stock market bottom or top is nearing.

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forex articles : Planning: A Key to Successful Trading

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From time to time I get some very interesting confessions. Here is a very recent one, along with a solution.

had been looking at a profitable trade setup all day. I studied indicator after indicator looking for confirmation, even though I know many are correlated and redundant. But I just kept on searching. I thought, ’Maybe I missed something.’ My account is now so small that I just wanted to be sure that this was the right trade. My thought was that I must take into consideration anything and everything that could cause this trade to fail. I can’t afford to lose any more money. What should I do?"
Well, my friend, you need to be able to make a decision, but you can’t do it if you are trading undercapitalized and making your trading decisions out of fear and uncertainty.
You are suffering from too much analysis. You are looking at so many things, you no longer can see straight. If you keep on over-analyzing your trades, it may develop into a deep-seated psychological problem.
Carefully analyzing the possible consequences of your trading decisions is healthy, but it becomes unhealthy when it is overdone. When it comes to trading, it’s important to have a clearly defined trading plan. You want to be sure that any given trade is not going to wipe out your trading account. That is one of the reasons we want you to use a time stop in addition to a money stop. When you use both types of stops you are clearly defining the signs and signals that indicate your trading plan is not working, suggesting that you should close out the trade to protect your capital.
Trading, by its very nature, is uncertain. There is little that can be described as security for traders. Every trade is a new event, and every entry is an entirely new business. A trader does not have the luxury of living from his past accomplishments.
If you have an unquenchable thirst for certainty, then trading is not for you. Uncertainty in trading is co-equal with insecurity. If money represents security to you, you have a real problem as a trader. Losing money not only costs you your financial security, but also your emotional security.
At many of my seminars and private tutorings I tell people that I have completely divorced myself from the money involved in trading. I don’t even know until the end of the month whether I have won or lost. I trained myself to think of trading as an endeavor in which I strive to make points. Only later are those points translated to dollars. In that sense, for me trading is a game. But I never lose sight of the fact that trading is also a serious business.
Insecurity in traders who over-analyze manifests in searching for the holy grail of trading, desperately seeking the right indicator or the perfect trade setup. The problem you’re having is that even when you see something, you are not sure it is sufficiently perfect for you to act on. Why? Because you lack confidence in your ability to trade what you see. Because you lack confidence in yourself. And because you fear the pain of another loss.
Here’s how I was taught to do my analytical work.
First, I went through all my charts to get an overview of the markets. During that time, I looked for trending markets. Trend lines were placed on the charts as long as they had a 30° or greater angle. Until I became used to what that looked like, I used a protractor to determine the angle. This action got me used to identifying the trend. These days it is easily done with your software.
Next, I went through all my charts again looking for "against the grain" moves-the intermediate trend that went against the longer term trend. This alerted me to markets that might soon resume trending.
Then I went through all my charts looking for Ross hooks™. I marked each hook with a bright red "h". Then, in light of the size of my margin account, I tried to select those markets that appeared to have the greatest potential, and I placed order entry stops just above or below the hooks. These were resting orders in the market. I tried to never miss a hook. I phoned my orders in daily.
How did I know which markets had the greatest potential? The answer is simple. I selected those markets that had the strongest trend lines.
Now there was a trick to this. I didn’t want too steep an angle, because in a rising market that often signals that the end of a move is near. Markets that break out too fast and go straight up rarely give an opportunity for entry before they start to chop around in congestion. Markets that have been going up at a steady angle, and suddenly that angle steepens-goes parabolic, are giving a warning that the move may soon be over.
In down markets I was willing to allow a steeper angle, because often a market will move down a lot faster than it moved up.
What I most wanted was trending markets that were making a retracement. Then I could attempt an entry as the market retraced, when it reached the proximity of the trend line, and then seemed to resume its trend, and when it took out the Ross hook™ created by the retracement.
Sometimes I had to wait for weeks before the markets started trending. The same is true today; nothing has changed other than that intraday it can happen a lot sooner. There will usually be at least a couple of markets in that condition, but there are times when there are none.
Yet I did my homework every day. The only way to know when an important breakout, the beginning of a trend, would occur, was to perform my daily analytical work.
Finally, I would set my work aside and take a break for dinner. After dinner, when my head had cleared a bit, I would look at my charts again. I would then do my best to come up with a trading plan. I would try to think through what I was going to do. I would ask myself a million "what if’s." I tried to anticipate what might happen in the market.
Often that kind of thinking would cause me to eliminate some of my potential trades. Also, a second look at times resulted in "why didn’t I see this before?"
For instance, what if you look at a market that is approaching its trend line. Isn’t it reasonable to ask yourself, "If this market breaks the trend line, what would I do?" Ask yourself how such an event would change the picture. If you had a position, would you still want to hold it? If you had no position, would this cause you to take a position opposite what was the trend? If it would, then why not place an order entry stop with limit, just the other side of that trend line? Very often, when prices approach a trend line from what has been a trending channel, they are already in a counter trend within the channel. That means a breakout of the trend line would be a continuation of this newly formed trend.
Finally, I would put my work aside and go to bed. In the morning I would look at my charts once again. Then I would write out scripts for the orders I wanted to place.
I would rehearse how authoritatively I was going to give these orders.
I did all this and more before I entered a trade. But do you know what most traders do? They do their analysis after the trade is made. Too often, they do it when the trade is already going against them.
How many times have you entered a trade, and then said to yourself, "Oh no, why didn’t I see that before?" How could you have seen it if you hadn’t looked, and looked again, and thought about it, and then perhaps looked one more time?
Also, many traders do their analysis after entering the trade in search of a justification for having entered. "Now I’m in the trade, let’s see if I can find out a couple of good reasons as to why!"
If you want to be a successful trader, you have to be hard. Hard on yourself and hard on your broker. I don’t mean that you have to be a rat, or be impolite, or be contemptuous. You just have to be firm in all that you do. You can’t afford to be "Mickey Mouse" about the way you do things. This is a business; you must be businesslike in conducting your affairs.
As a business person, you must manage your business. One of the main functions of management is planning. You have to plan your trades. Other things to look for as you go through your charts are: One-two-three formations, cups with handle, matching congestions, reversal bars, and Doji’s. These should all be part of your plan.
Some people give more thought to choosing which flavor ice cream to eat than to which market to enter and how and when to do it.
By not taking the time for preparation, you end up not having enough time to weigh the pros and cons or really familiarize yourself with what you are getting into.
You don’t have time to realize that prices have supported two ticks away from your entry about forty times in the past. You don’t have time to see that you are trading right into overhead selling. You don’t have time to notice that if prices break out of yesterday’s high, they will also probably take out a Ross hook. You don’t have time to see where prices are in relation to the trend line. You don’t have time to really grasp the overall trend, or the wave that is going counter trend. You don’t have time to really consider where you will place your stop. You don’t have time to read the market and to see what it might be telling you.
All of these things can be done ahead of time. If you do not do your homework, you will end up chasing markets in a desperate attempt to get into "the big move."

by gamal

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forex articles : Planning: A Key to Successful Trading

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From time to time I get some very interesting confessions. Here is a very recent one, along with a solution.
had been looking at a profitable trade setup all day. I studied indicator after indicator looking for confirmation, even though I know many are correlated and redundant. But I just kept on searching. I thought, ’Maybe I missed something.’ My account is now so small that I just wanted to be sure that this was the right trade. My thought was that I must take into consideration anything and everything that could cause this trade to fail. I can’t afford to lose any more money. What should I do?"
Well, my friend, you need to be able to make a decision, but you can’t do it if you are trading undercapitalized and making your trading decisions out of fear and uncertainty.
You are suffering from too much analysis. You are looking at so many things, you no longer can see straight. If you keep on over-analyzing your trades, it may develop into a deep-seated psychological problem.
Carefully analyzing the possible consequences of your trading decisions is healthy, but it becomes unhealthy when it is overdone. When it comes to trading, it’s important to have a clearly defined trading plan. You want to be sure that any given trade is not going to wipe out your trading account. That is one of the reasons we want you to use a time stop in addition to a money stop. When you use both types of stops you are clearly defining the signs and signals that indicate your trading plan is not working, suggesting that you should close out the trade to protect your capital.
Trading, by its very nature, is uncertain. There is little that can be described as security for traders. Every trade is a new event, and every entry is an entirely new business. A trader does not have the luxury of living from his past accomplishments.
If you have an unquenchable thirst for certainty, then trading is not for you. Uncertainty in trading is co-equal with insecurity. If money represents security to you, you have a real problem as a trader. Losing money not only costs you your financial security, but also your emotional security.
At many of my seminars and private tutorings I tell people that I have completely divorced myself from the money involved in trading. I don’t even know until the end of the month whether I have won or lost. I trained myself to think of trading as an endeavor in which I strive to make points. Only later are those points translated to dollars. In that sense, for me trading is a game. But I never lose sight of the fact that trading is also a serious business.
Insecurity in traders who over-analyze manifests in searching for the holy grail of trading, desperately seeking the right indicator or the perfect trade setup. The problem you’re having is that even when you see something, you are not sure it is sufficiently perfect for you to act on. Why? Because you lack confidence in your ability to trade what you see. Because you lack confidence in yourself. And because you fear the pain of another loss.
Here’s how I was taught to do my analytical work.
First, I went through all my charts to get an overview of the markets. During that time, I looked for trending markets. Trend lines were placed on the charts as long as they had a 30° or greater angle. Until I became used to what that looked like, I used a protractor to determine the angle. This action got me used to identifying the trend. These days it is easily done with your software.
Next, I went through all my charts again looking for "against the grain" moves-the intermediate trend that went against the longer term trend. This alerted me to markets that might soon resume trending.
Then I went through all my charts looking for Ross hooks™. I marked each hook with a bright red "h". Then, in light of the size of my margin account, I tried to select those markets that appeared to have the greatest potential, and I placed order entry stops just above or below the hooks. These were resting orders in the market. I tried to never miss a hook. I phoned my orders in daily.
How did I know which markets had the greatest potential? The answer is simple. I selected those markets that had the strongest trend lines.
Now there was a trick to this. I didn’t want too steep an angle, because in a rising market that often signals that the end of a move is near. Markets that break out too fast and go straight up rarely give an opportunity for entry before they start to chop around in congestion. Markets that have been going up at a steady angle, and suddenly that angle steepens-goes parabolic, are giving a warning that the move may soon be over.
In down markets I was willing to allow a steeper angle, because often a market will move down a lot faster than it moved up.
What I most wanted was trending markets that were making a retracement. Then I could attempt an entry as the market retraced, when it reached the proximity of the trend line, and then seemed to resume its trend, and when it took out the Ross hook™ created by the retracement.
Sometimes I had to wait for weeks before the markets started trending. The same is true today; nothing has changed other than that intraday it can happen a lot sooner. There will usually be at least a couple of markets in that condition, but there are times when there are none.
Yet I did my homework every day. The only way to know when an important breakout, the beginning of a trend, would occur, was to perform my daily analytical work.
Finally, I would set my work aside and take a break for dinner. After dinner, when my head had cleared a bit, I would look at my charts again. I would then do my best to come up with a trading plan. I would try to think through what I was going to do. I would ask myself a million "what if’s." I tried to anticipate what might happen in the market.
Often that kind of thinking would cause me to eliminate some of my potential trades. Also, a second look at times resulted in "why didn’t I see this before?"
For instance, what if you look at a market that is approaching its trend line. Isn’t it reasonable to ask yourself, "If this market breaks the trend line, what would I do?" Ask yourself how such an event would change the picture. If you had a position, would you still want to hold it? If you had no position, would this cause you to take a position opposite what was the trend? If it would, then why not place an order entry stop with limit, just the other side of that trend line? Very often, when prices approach a trend line from what has been a trending channel, they are already in a counter trend within the channel. That means a breakout of the trend line would be a continuation of this newly formed trend.
Finally, I would put my work aside and go to bed. In the morning I would look at my charts once again. Then I would write out scripts for the orders I wanted to place.
I would rehearse how authoritatively I was going to give these orders.
I did all this and more before I entered a trade. But do you know what most traders do? They do their analysis after the trade is made. Too often, they do it when the trade is already going against them.
How many times have you entered a trade, and then said to yourself, "Oh no, why didn’t I see that before?" How could you have seen it if you hadn’t looked, and looked again, and thought about it, and then perhaps looked one more time?
Also, many traders do their analysis after entering the trade in search of a justification for having entered. "Now I’m in the trade, let’s see if I can find out a couple of good reasons as to why!"
If you want to be a successful trader, you have to be hard. Hard on yourself and hard on your broker. I don’t mean that you have to be a rat, or be impolite, or be contemptuous. You just have to be firm in all that you do. You can’t afford to be "Mickey Mouse" about the way you do things. This is a business; you must be businesslike in conducting your affairs.
As a business person, you must manage your business. One of the main functions of management is planning. You have to plan your trades. Other things to look for as you go through your charts are: One-two-three formations, cups with handle, matching congestions, reversal bars, and Doji’s. These should all be part of your plan.
Some people give more thought to choosing which flavor ice cream to eat than to which market to enter and how and when to do it.
By not taking the time for preparation, you end up not having enough time to weigh the pros and cons or really familiarize yourself with what you are getting into.
You don’t have time to realize that prices have supported two ticks away from your entry about forty times in the past. You don’t have time to see that you are trading right into overhead selling. You don’t have time to notice that if prices break out of yesterday’s high, they will also probably take out a Ross hook. You don’t have time to see where prices are in relation to the trend line. You don’t have time to really grasp the overall trend, or the wave that is going counter trend. You don’t have time to really consider where you will place your stop. You don’t have time to read the market and to see what it might be telling you.
All of these things can be done ahead of time. If you do not do your homework, you will end up chasing markets in a desperate attempt to get into "the big move."
by gamal

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forex articles : Some Advice before Entering Forex Trading

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There is an ideal mindset, character, and mental attitude that traders need to acquire. I say “acquire” because few people have the innate personality that makes this mindset “natural” With respect to your trading, this involves being free of anxiety, fear, despair or regret. It also involves being able to remain calm, confident, focused and disciplined in the face of adverse trading outcomes.
Trade with a Disciplined Plan
The problem with many traders is that they take shopping more seriously than trading. The average shopper would not spend $500 without serious research and examination of the product he/she is about to purchase, yet the average trader would make a trade that could easily cost him/her $500 based on little more than a feeling or hunch. The plan must include stop and limit levels for the trade, as your analysis should encompass the expected downside as well as the expected upside. Be sure that you have a plan in place before you start to trade.
Good Execution Good Anticipation
Everybody knows that trading is a number game. I mean, our success is not depend on the outcome of the next trade, our success is depend on the overall profitability of many trades. So, while we are trading, whether the last trade we did was profitable or not is definitely not important. There is no point drawing conclusions on the outcome of just one –or even a few-trades. We can only access our anticipation skills when we have made a reasonable number of trades and see the longer-term result of our action. It is so important that when we are trading, our goal should be focus on executing our trades with ruthless efficiency and to judge only that. If you consider the ways that you lose money trading, you will find that it is down to poor execution, rather than poor anticipation.
Cut Your Losses Early and Let Your Profits Run
This simple concept is one of the most difficult to implement and is the cause of most traders demise. Most traders violate their predetermined plan and take their profits before reaching their profit target because they feel uncomfortable sitting on a profitable position. These same people will easily sit on losing positions, allowing the market to move against them for hundreds of points in hopes that the market will come back. In addition, traders who have had their stops hit a few times only to see the market go back in their favor once they are out, are quick to remove stops from their trading on the belief that this will always be the case. Stops are there to be hit, and to stop you from losing more then a predetermined amount. You simply allow your profits on the winners to run and make sure that your losses are minimal. What is it about cutting a loss that is so hard?
Do Not Over Trade
Do not bet on the farm. One of the most common mistakes that traders make is leveraging their account too high by trading much larger sizes than their account should prudently trade. Leverage is a double-edged sword. Just because one lot of currency only requires $1000 as a minimum margin deposit, it does not mean that a trader with $5000 in his account should be able to trade 5 lots. One lot is $100,000 and should be treated as a $100,000 investment and not the $1000 put up as margin. Most traders analyze the charts correctly and place sensible trades, yet they tend to over leverage themselves. As a consequence of this, they are often forced to exit a position at the wrong time. A good rule of thumb is to never use more than 10% of your account at any given time.
Do Not Marry Your Trades
The reason trading with a plan is the #1 tip is because most objective analysis is done before the trade is executed. Once a trader is in a position he/she tends to analyze the market differently in the hopes that the market will move in a favorable direction rather than objectively looking at the changing factors that may have turned against your original analysis. This is especially true of losses. Traders with a losing position tend to marry their position, which causes them to disregard the fact that all signs point towards continued losses.
So should you before you trade. In order to start the trading day in the optimum state of mind you should take 15 to 20 minutes to prepare. Treat each day like an elite athlete prepares for a competition. Here is how to do this:
1. Get yourself in a comfortable sitting position and close your eyes
2. Breathe in and out slowly, pushing your stomach out each time you breathe in
3. Consciously relax all your muscles
4. Focus your entire attention on your breathing
5. When your mind starts to wander (as it will) re-focus on your breathing so that you eliminate from your consciousness whatever your mind had started to think about -including bodily sensations
6. Become aware of being exclusively -in the present moment. Exclude memories or thoughts about past events, and worries or anticipation or planning about the future
7. Do this past the point of boredom, until your restless mind settles down and you enter a peaceful, relaxed state. This usually takes 15 to 20 minutes, but it can be longer for some people

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forex articles : Looking for Cup and Handle Chart Patterns before Buying a Stock

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Cup and Handle
Favorable Chart Patterns to Look for before Buying a Stock
One of the biggest factors an investor should consider before buying a stock is what type of chart pattern the stock is forming. A company may have great fundamentals but if it has an unfavorable chart pattern then it may not be a good company to invest in. One of the basic chart patterns to look for before investing in a stock is called a "Cup and Handle" pattern. Typically a "Cup and Handle" looks similar to a coffee cup if you were holding the cup in your right hand.
Generally I look for stocks that take 3 Months or more to form a Cup and then develop a Handle for at least 2 Weeks. Some examples are shown below.
AMHC formed a Cup for 14 Months and then developed a Handle for 8 Weeks (point A). AMHC broke out of the Handle in December of 2001 and then preceded to rise from $8 to $37 a share over the next 12 months for a gain of over 400%.



EASI developed a 2 year Cup and then formed a 10 week Handle (point B) before breaking out in August of 2000. EASI then preceded to rise from $12 to $38 a share over the next 12 months for a gain of over 200%.


FRNT developed a 12 Month Cup and then formed an 8 Week Handle (point C) before breaking out in November of 2000. FRNT then preceded to rise from $12 to $26 a share for a gain of over 100% over the next 5 Months.


Finally TARO developed a Cup for 10 Months and then formed a 6 Week Handle (point D) before breaking out in October of 2001. TARO then rose from $17 to $50 a share for a gain of 190% over the next 6 Months.


By focusing on companies with good fundamentals that are breaking out of a favorable chart pattern such as a "Cup and Handle" will allow you to find winning stocks even in a Bear Market environment. The purpose of our site is to help focus investors on those stocks that have good fundamentals which are forming favorable chart patterns such as the "Cup and Handle".






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forex articles : Forex trading basics

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Forex Market Basics
The Foreign Exchange market (also referred to as the Forex, FX market, "Cash" Forex or Spot Forex market ) is the largest financial market in the world, with more than $1.5 trillion changing hands every day — 30 times larger than the combined volume of all U.S. equity markets. Another major feature of the Forex market is that it operates 24 hours a day, corresponding to the opening and closing of financial centers in countries all across the world, starting each day in Sydney, then Tokyo, London and New York. At any time, in any location, there are buyers and sellers, making the Forex market the most liquid market in the world.
What to trade in Forex Market?
In the forex market, currency trading is always done in currency pairs, such as EUR/USD or GBP/USD. Accordingly, all trades result in the simultaneous buying of one currency and the selling of another. The base currency is the "basis" for the buy or the sell. It is useful to consider the currency pair as an instrument, which can be bought or sold.
Understanding Forex quote
Base currency: The first currency in the pair.
Counter Currency: The second currency in the pair. Also known as the terms currency.
The US dollar is the centerpiece of the Forex market and is normally considered the ’base’ currency for quotes. This includes USD/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/CAD. For these currencies and many others, quotes are expressed as a unit of $1 USD per the second currency quoted in the pair. For example, a quote of USD/CAD 1.1302 means that one U.S. dollar is equal to 1.1302 Canadian dollar.
BID and ASK Prices
When trading forex you will often see a two-sided quote, consisting of a ’bid’ and ’ask’. The ’bid’ is the price at which you can sell the base currency (at the same time buying the counter currency). The ’ask’ is the price at which you can buy the base currency (at the same time selling the counter currency).
Commission-free, but with spreads
Rollover - What happens to my open positions at the end of the trading day?
Process whereby the settlement of a deal is rolled forward to another value date. The cost of this process is based on the interest rate differential of the two currencies. Most brokers will automatically roll over your open positions, allowing you to hold a position for an indefinite period of time.
Leverage & Margin
The leverage available in forex trading is one of main attractions for many traders. Leveraged trading, or trading on margin, simply means that you are not required to put up the full value of the position. Forex brokers provide more leverage than stocks or futures. In forex trading, the amount of leverage available can be up to 400 times the value of your account.

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forex articles :Essential Elements of a Successful Trader

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Courage Under Stressful Conditions When the Outcome is Uncertain
All the foreign exchange trading knowledge in the world is not going to help, unless you have the nerve to buy and sell currencies and put your money at risk. As with the lottery “You gotta be in it to win it”. Trust me when I say that the simple task of hitting the buy or sell key is extremely difficult to do when your own real money is put at risk.
You will feel anxiety, even fear. Here lies the moment of truth. Do you have the courage to be afraid and act anyway? When a fireman runs into a burning building I assume he is afraid but he does it anyway and achieves the desired result. Unless you can overcome or accept your fear and do it anyway, you will not be a successful trader.
However, once you learn to control your fear, it gets easier and easier and in time there is no fear. The opposite reaction can become an issue – you’re overconfident and not focused enough on the risk you’re taking.
Start by analyzing yourself. Are you the type of person that can control their emotions and flawlessly execute trades, oftentimes under extremely stressful conditions? Are you the type of person who’s overconfident and prone to take more risk than they should? Before your first real trade you need to look inside yourself and get the answers. We can correct any deficiencies before they result in paralysis (not pulling the trigger) or a huge loss (overconfidence). A huge loss can prematurely end your trading career, or prolong your success until you can raise additional capital.
Both the inability to initiate a trade, or close a losing trade can create serious psychological issues for a trader going forward. By calling attention to these potential stumbling blocks beforehand, you can properly prepare prior to your first real trade and develop good trading habits from day one.
The difficulty doesn’t end with “pulling the trigger”. In fact what comes next is equally or perhaps more difficult. Once you are in the trade the next hurdle is staying in the trade. When trading foreign exchange you exit the trade as soon as possible after entry when it is not working. Most people who have been successful in non-trading ventures find this concept difficult to implement.
For example, real estate tycoons make their fortune riding out the bad times and selling during the boom periods. The problem with trying to adapt a ’hold on until it comes back’ strategy in foreign exchange is that most of the time the currencies are in long-term persistent, directional trends and your equity will be wiped out before the currency comes back.
The other side of the coin is staying in a trade that is working. The most common pitfall is closing out a winning position without a valid reason. Once again, fear is the culprit. Your subconscious demons will be scaring you non-stop with questions like “what if news comes out and you wind up with a loss”. The reality is if news comes out in a currency that is going up, the news has a higher probability of being positive than negative (more on why that is so in a later article).
So your fear is just a baseless annoyance. Don’t try and fight the fear. Accept it. Have a laugh about it and then move on to the task at hand, which is determining an exit strategy based on actual price movement. As Garth says in Waynesworld “Live in the now man”. Worrying about what could be is irrational. Studying your chart and determining an objective exit point is reality based and rational.
Another common pitfall is closing a winning position because you are bored with it; its not moving. In Football, after a star running back breaks free for a 50-yard gain, he comes out of the game temporarily for a breather. When he reenters the game he is a serious threat to gain more yards – this is indisputable. So when your position takes a breather after a winning move, the next likely event is further gains – so why close it?
If you can be courageous under fire and strategically patient, foreign exchange trading may be for you. If you’re a natural gunslinger and reckless you will need to tone your act down a notch or two and we can help you make the necessary adjustments. If putting your money at risk makes you a nervous wreck its because you lack the knowledge base to be confident in your decision making.
Patience to Gain Knowledge through Study and Focus
Many new traders believe all you need to profitably trade foreign currencies are charts, technical indicators and a small bankroll. Most of them blow up (lose all their money) within a few weeks or months; some are initially successful and it takes as long as a year before they blow up. A tiny minority with good money management skills, patience, and a market niche go on to be successful traders. Armed with charts, technical indicators, and a small bankroll, the chance of succeeding is probably 500 to 1.
To increase your chances of success to near certainty requires knowledge; acquiring knowledge takes hard work, study, dedication and focus. Compile your knowledge base without taking any shortcuts, thereby assuring a solid foundation to build upon.
by gamal

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