09‏/05‏/2009

Create a Forex Trading System

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Create a Forex Trading System
When creating your own trading system, there are a few things to keep in mind. You are going to need to be able to spot trends, while making sure not to get faked out. The real trick is, once you have created a system that works for you, stick to it. Being disciplined will help in starting a successful trading system.
Before trading live, you have to figure out what works for you. It is good to know in what time frame you’re going to be working in, and how much you are willing to risk once you begin trading. It is generally suggested to use the moving average crossover system (in which times to buy and sell are determined by when two averages cross over or under each other) to identify trends, and the Relative Strength Index to confirm or deny trends.
The last piece of information needed, is deciding how aggressive you are going to be with entering and exiting a trade. The more aggressive trader wouldn’t wait until the candle closed, but enter as soon as their indicators match up. Most would wait until the candle has closed, to have more stability when entering a trade.

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The Carry Trade : How to Trade Using Interest Rates

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The Carry Trade : How to Trade Using Interest Rates
The carry trade is one of the most popular strategies in forex trading because it guarantees some type return on medium or long term positions. Unlike most strategies for the forex market, carry trading does not seek to capture a profit by exploiting changes in the value of a currency pair, but instead focuses on the interest rate differentials in currency pairs. The ideal carry trade is one where the currency pair experiences little change in value but has a wide interest rate differential.
What to Look For in a Carry Trade
1.Large interest rate differentials
For example, the British Pound has a 4.50% interest rate and the Japanese Yen has a 0.50% interest rate. That is an interest rate differential of 4%. This means if you borrow Japanese Yen at 0.50% interest rate and invest it in the British Pound at a 4.50% interest rate, you will make 4% in interest on those borrowed funds.
2.Healthy Economy of the Higher Interest Rate Currency
In general, a country with a high interest rate should attract more foreign capital as investors seek the highest returns on their investments. The health of the economy should also be taken into consideration. For England, inflation above normal at 3% indicates interest rates may rise in the near future, which is typically good for the British Pound. High inflation isn’t always good, especially in the case of Zimbabwe. The interest rate in Zimbabwe as of October 2008 is 8500.00%. A carry traders deam? Absolutely not, with inflation topping 231,150,888.87% year over year in October, investing in this currency would be a very risky move
Popular Carry Trade Set-Ups
Because Japanese interest rates have been so low in the recent past, a disproportionate number of carry trades in the forex market have involved the yen. So, let's use the GBP/JPY for a basic example. Let's say you know for a fact that the yen and the British Pound are going to maintain a parity over the coming year with 0.5% interest for the JPY and 4.5% interest for the British Pound. Taking $10,000 and leveraging it 10:1 to buy100,000 units GBP/JPY you will earn roughly with 11GBP per day on that investment, or 4000GBP per year. With the GBP/USD at an average price of 1.75, you would make roughly $7000 on your investment of $70,000 without a single pip move in your favor. In an ideal situation, like the chart below, investor capital will also flow in the direction of the higher yielding currency and the trader will profit on that as well, but that is not the main goal of the carry trade.


Carry Trade Dangers
Of course, the main danger with carry trading is the same with other types of longer-term forex strategies – the currency you are holding might depreciate against your home currency as is occurring in the chart below. If you suspect that this is going to happen, it is time for you to get out. Many carry traders will set their stops on long term carry trades at their trades entry point. This locks in carry profits and stops the trade before it takes position losses. Keep in mind that carry trading is a long term strategy and should be treated as such, so don’t stress out on intraday profits and losses.



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Swing Trading Strategy

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Trend trading is a basic trading strategy that works particularly well in the forex market. In many ways, it is the archetypal trading strategy: Try to buy low just as things are about to pick up, and then sell at or just before the peak value in a particular trend.
The steps are simple, though difficult: First, a trend is identified. Next, the trader predicts where the trend is going to stop, and then holds his position until the currency either breaks the trend of reaches the pre-ordained sell point.
The first step is generally the easiest. In forex trading a trend is often defined as when a currency breaks out of its bollinger bands and then trends in one direction. So, if the bollinger bands are set well, identifying the trader nearly needs to place a buy pr short order just beyond the bollinger band.
Next, a trader needs to identify where the floor or the ceiling of the trend is. Often, there is little rational reason to why a particular ceiling is set. $100/ a barrel of oil, for instance, has no particular economic logic behind it, other than the immense psychological effect it has – imagine how it'd feel to turn a 100.
So, in order to identify the ceiling or floor, the trader needs to either (a) identify how low or how high the market feels comfortable going with that particular currency pair. Or (b) what the economic fundamentals are that will keep the market in line, regardless of the market's current psychology.
Generally speaking, the higher the volatility in the market as a whole, the weaker the barriers.
By the very nature of trend trading, almost all traders lose more often than they win. When you win, you ride the trend for a good amount of money, but there will be more false starts based on misleading statistical noise than there will be genuine trends.
So, a good defense is just as important as a good offense. That is, it's important to trade with relatively tight stops when you're trend trading, to protect against the not-so-unlikely scenario that you are wrong. Frequently losing much more than 2% of your capital on a given trade will make it awfully tough to make up your losses by winning big when you do predict a trend correctly.

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Swing Trading Strategy

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Swing Trading Strategy
Swing trading is a style of trading used in the forex market or with high-cap stocks that aims to make gains by holding positions for a period ranging from one day to one week on average. Other than day trading, it is the most short term style of trading.
Swing trading is a broad term that encompasses several different distinct trading styles, among them range trading, trend trading, and counter-trend trading. See our articles on those topics for more information. It is generally used more often by technical traders. Bolinger bands are perhaps the most useful tool to use when practicing swing trading, and most forex companies offer
The short term nature of swing trading makes it particularly effective for forex traders. In general, the lack of commission fees or significant spreads at most brokerages makes most strategies that are based on short term trades aptly suited to the forex market.

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News Trading Strategy

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How To Range Trade


The forex market is unique to most other financial markets in that it does not need to be going up for there to be opportunities for profit. Range trading is a strategy that takes advantage of lower volatility sideways movements of the currency market.
Take a look at this chart of the EUR/CHF. There are support and resistance lines marked off and we can see the EUR/CHF bouncing off of these support and resistance lines and returning towards the midway point. Range traders thrive in these situations and buy at bottoms and sell at the tops taking advantage of several trading opportunities rather than trying to call a break out.


Setting up a Range Trade



1.Choosing the Right Currency PairTypically, look for pairs with low interest rate differentials. Also look for currency pairs who’s economies are intertwined. A good example of this is the EUR/CHF. The majority of Swiss exports go to the European Union and Switzerland is surrounded geographically by the European Union.
2.Determining Support and ResistanceThese barrier levels can be determined by looking at previous highs and lows, pivot points, Bollinger Bands or fibonacci levels

3.Setting stops and limitsIn long positions, set limits near the top of resistance and stops several pips below the swing low. You don’t want to be taken out just as the market turns in your favor, so make sure to allow room. In short positions, limits should be set near the bottom and stops above the swing high.
4.Don’t be Greedy Have goals for each trade. Follow the range trading strategy and if there is a break out don’t chase it. Although you might be able to make money on the trend, you may also lose your head.




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News Trading Strategy

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News Trading Strategy

“News trading” is just an odd phraseology used to describe forex trading centered around news-worthy events. Usually, these events are releases of important economic data. About half the time, the news involves the US market, but just as often it can be economic data pertinent to the other half of the currency pair. Much of the trader's energy when utilizing a news trading strategy is spent determining whether or not the actual news release will match, exceed or fall short of forecasts.
The next part of the equation is predicting how much the market will react. Obviously, some news stories are more important than others. More tricky to figure out, however, is how the market will take a particular piece of news in a particular setting. Jobs reports are always going to move the market a little, so let's take something a little less important, say, housing starts. Before placing your orders, ask yourself, is the market concerned with housing at the present time? If so, to what degree? Is there a firm consensus that housing is going one way or another right now, or is the market trying to still figure things out?
Once you decide how much you think the market is going to react, you have two main options. The first is to place a straddle order, wherein you buy longs and shorts on either side of the current value of your currency pair. That way, you don't need to predict which direction the market is going to move. It work well, but the problem is sometimes you get completely burned: large fluctuations resulting from the volatility that the news event has produced means both of your orders get filled, and you end up losing a whole lot of money. What's important with straddle orders is that you cautiously and accurately predict how much the market is going to move.
The second possibility is to go long or short on the currency, depending on which way you think the market is going to move. Obviously, there is more risk of not having an order filled, but at the same time, you have more capital available to increase your order size than if you were to place a straddle order. Both straddling and a simple long or short are relatively risky strategies: Trying to predict the news is usually harder than analyzing already existing data or the market's mood. When everything is predicted right, though, it can be an extremely profitable endeavor. As such, trading on the basis of news events is one of the most important and popular forex trading strategies. It is, also, one of the most exciting.

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News Announcements And Trading

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NFP is a monthly statistic collected by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The acronym stands for Non-Farm Payroll. The statistic is released by the BLS on the first Friday of each month and is aimed to serve as an index and indicator of the short-term economic status of theUnited States.
The NFP statistic measures the current number of paid employees on payrolls around the country, excluding those in the agricultural, non-profit, governmental, and household sectors. In addition to the number of employees in the complementary sectors, the statistic also provides information on average workweek hours as well as weekly wages and overtime pay.
The interest in the NFP statistic is that NFP employees constitute roughly 80% of U.S. GDP. Because of this fact, the NFP statistic gives a good estimate of how well the majority of wage earners in the U.S. economy are faring on a monthly basis. Because economic prosperity positively influences short-term consumption, the statistic also gives a good idea of how much consumption can be expected in the upcoming month. Thus, NFP serves as an indicator of how the level of transactions is expected to behave in the U.S. economy and thereby helps investors gauge how much currency can be expected to circulate through the economy to help facilitate those transactions.
The amount of money circulating through the economy is important to forex investors because the supply for money directly affects the prices and exchange rates involved in forex trading when coupled with investor demand for national currency.
The above discussion is to say that NFP also measures monthly national economic growth. At the same time, the NFP numbers can also measure whether inflation is on the rise or not in the economy. A rise of inflation would obviously be of interest to traders since it would mean that the national currency has less buying power and would therefore be able to buy one less foreign currency.
We've discussed how to gather economic growth data from NFP, but how exactly does one gather whether or not inflation is on the rise? This is a harder question to answer. Nevertheless, if the NFP figures tend to increase at a large rate over a couple of months, rapid increased expenditures tend to support the view that consumers are more willing to spend larger amounts on goods and services, hinting that price levels, and hence inflation, might rise in response to increased consumer confidence.
There are myriad other ways that investors can interpret NFP numbers. On one hand, investors may try to compare these numbers to predicted values that economists had given in advance. By comparing NFP values to predicted values, investors can gauge how accurately economists are capable of reading business and economic vital signs. NFP values that closely mimic predicted values will lead to investor confidence, while values that are far off from predictions will spur investor doubt.
It should be noted that the NFP values are only one of many possible economic indicators that investors can consult in order to gauge current-day economic growth. Other popular indicators include the consumer price index, GDP, unemployment rates, mortgage volume, and job growth.

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How to Scalp The Forex Market

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Scalping is a trading strategy that relies on more frequent and short-term trades than any other strategy. Scalping, by the way, is the single most vivid piece of terminology in the forex world. Scalpers, as the traders who practice this strategy are called, do not seek to make lots of money on any given trade. Rather, they seek to make as little as several pips per trade. Their aim is to make these small profits so often that, by the end of the day, they end up with a significant amount of profit. The time frame for a scalp trade can be as little as a single minute.
Scalpers are the bane of brokers. They often make trades on a position before the broker even has time to fill the first order. Thus, the brokers actually lose money from the transaction. As technology has evolved, of course, brokers have gotten faster at filling the orders they receive, so scalping is no longer as significant a problem as it was years ago. That being said, many online broker sites do not allow scalping, and limit the number of trades you can make in a day to roughly a dozen.
So, if you are a trader looking to try scalping as a strategy – sometimes also called picking – your first step would be to find a broker who doesn't object to scalping. These have become easier to find in recent years as the online presence of the forex market has grown.
The next thing to look for in a forex broker is the fees associated with each trade. Many sites charge something close to an eight point spread. Obviously, if your goal is to make a profit of just several pips per trade, then a spread two or three times that is quite the barrier to profitability.
The fact that some scalpers can still be profitable using traders with such high spreads is a testament to the potential power of scalping as a trading strategy.
In many ways, the heart of scalping is the extra attention the trader pays to the movements of the market. By watching the market continuously, the scalper can, theoretically, tell when the market is probably in the middle of a up or downswing. He or she will then buy or short a currency pair when appropriate, and sell it as soon as it reaps a few pips worth of profit.

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Forex Trading and Taxes

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Seeing profits from forex trading is an exciting feeling both for you and your portfolio. But then, it hits you. What about taxes? The forex tax code can be confusing at first. This is because some forex transactions are categorized under Section 1256 contracts while others are treated under the Section 988 – the Treatment of Certain Currency Transactions.


Section 1256 provides a 60/40 tax treatment which is lower compared to its counterpart. By default, all forex contracts are subject to the ordinary gain or loss treatment. Traders need to “opt-out” of Section 988 and into capital gain or loss treatment, which is under Section 1256. There is no use in trying to wiggle out of your taxes. Every trader in the United States is required to pay for their forex capital grains.

More Information about Section 1256

section 1956 is defined by the IRS as any regulated futures contract, foreign currency contract or non-equity option, including debt options, commodity futures options and broad-based stock index options. This section allows you to report capital gains using Form 6781 from the IRS (Gains and Losses from Section 1256 Contracts and Straddles). Take note that you have to separate the capital gains on Schedule D in a 60/40 split. It is divided as such:
60% of the total capital gains are taxed at 15% which is the lower rate

40% of the total capital gains can be taxed to as high as 35%. This is the ordinary capital gains tax.


40% of the total capital gains can be taxed to as high as 35%. This is the ordinary capital gains tax.

More Information about Section 988
In this section 988, the gains and losses from forex are considered as interest revenue or expense. Because of this, capital gains are also taxed as such. The 60/40 split is not used and traders can expect to pay more if they fall under this section. The Section 988 is also complicated because forex traders have to deal with currency value changes on an everyday basis.
However, the IRS also made some provisions that will allow daily rate changes to be considered part of the trader’s assets or a part of the business. As a result, you can opt-out of Section 988 and then tax your capital gains using Section 1256.
How to Opt Out of Section 988
The IRS does not really require a trader to file anything in order to opt out. But it is important to keep an “internal” record that shows that you have decided to opt out of Section 988. Many forex traders wait for about a year before opting out of this section. Why? They are just observing how much profit they can make from forex trading.
Form 8886 and Trading Losses
If you suffered large losses you may be ablefile from 8886 (see below for form). If your transactions resulted in losses of at least $2 million in any single tax year ($50,000 if from certain foreign currency transactions) or $4 million in any combination of tax years you may be able file form 8886.
Paying for the Forex Taxes
Filing the tax itself isn’t hard. A US-based forex trader just needs to get a 1099 form from his broker at the end of each year. If the broker is located in another country, the forex trader should acquire the forms and any related documentations from his accounts. Getting professional tax advice is recommended as well.
As you can see, there is nothing difficult about paying for forex profits at this point. However, as this trading becomes more popular, the IRS is bound to come up with more measures that will regulate the trade. But if there’s one piece of advice you should take from this, it’s to always pay your taxes.

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How to Pick a Money Manager

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Many forex traders use money managers to deal with the profits they are not trading with in the forex market, or to manage all their investments for an extended amount of time. The best money managers employ a number of experts in different areas of finance, business and economics.
Picking the right money manager is one of the most important decisions you will make with your money. The track records of different money managers vary far more than you would think, and a good money manager can make the difference between your retirement being spent in an apartment outside your favorite city, or on a yacht outside the port of your Caribbean island of choice.
Most quality money managers derive the bulk of their income from taking a small percentage of the size of the accounts they manage. That way, they have it in their interest to see your account to grow.
Avoid money managers that charge significant transactions-based fees. You will have an inherent conflict of interest with any money manager that sees his income grow in a significant way from anything other than the size of the accounts he manages.
Even those systems based on annual profits raise fundamental conflicts of interest. It entices the money manager to pursue overly risky investments: He or she won't have to pay you during the years your account suffers losses, but the years that see record profits, the manager gets a percentage of that.
After looking at how, exactly, your money manager earns his income, you should next examine his record. Looking at the is annual returns is not enough. These should, of course, be high. Indeed, they are the single most important detail in a money manager's reputation. But you should also examine his investment strategy. Do you think it will be a good strategy for the future? Does he base his decisions on thorough research? Does it seem like he is biased towards investments in sectors that you don't think are going to fare well in the future? All of these questions are important, and are well worth the time it takes you to answer.
Similarly, a look at his resume and qualifications are also important. Here, judging a money manager is little different than hiring any other professional service provider, such as an accountant or doctor.
Also, there is the question of service and accessibility. Some money managers act as though your money is actually their money, and you should simply sit tight and hope for the best. This attitude tends to not only to bespeak a certain hubris, but it also shows a certain callousness to your individual needs. The money manager should actively conform your account to your life. When you plan on making major purchases such as a home or paying for someone's college education – these should change your money managers investment strategy. If your money manager carte blanche suggests the same thing regardless of what your individual needs are, this may be a warning sign for you to stay away.
Lastly, make sure there is some personal rapport between you and your money manager. As much as any professional service provider, your money manager is your partner, and your ability to work with him or her on a frequent basis is of critical importance, both to your own peace of mind and the performance of your investments.

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How do I know if I can trust my forex broker?

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There are a couple of ways to check up on your forex broker. For the most part, these steps aren't much different than what you would do with any other financial services professional that will provide services to you critical for your well-being.
One nice thing about choosing a forex broker as opposed to choosing a stock broker is the lack of frequent conflicts of interest. Even with all of the regulatory power of the SEC, seeing stock brokers and Wall Street firms found guilty of an almost casual abuse of their clients' trust is almost a regular event these days. The forex market is so large, however, that it is hard to profit off of someone else's positions, even for the especially large banks.
First, check the website out thoroughly. The forex market involves huge sums of money, and is a place only for professionals. If a broker's site does not suggest a total commitment to perfection and customer service, as well as a total intimacy with technology, don't bother.
Second, check with the National Futures Association, or NFA, to see if he is registered as a broker. There is little reason to deal with any broker who is not registered with his industry's trade group.
Third, check his references and his resume. More important than the length of his resume – assuming he's not an amateur – is a certain sense of perfectionism displayed in his professional endeavors.
Lastly, do not be overly concerned about fees. Remember, your forex broker will, in the long run, hopefully make you a significant amount of money. To be sure, there are certainly a large number of brokers who charge first-rate fees and do not give first-rate services. Certainly, you want to avoid getting ripped off. However, it is much better to receive good advice that's slightly overcharged than it is to receive bad advice for a little less money.

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It is generally a good idea to create a trading plan ahead of time. Some trading strategies are more conducive to long term planning than others. Da

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For forex traders, there is no one online forex broker that towers above the rest in terms of traffic, trade-volume and services provided. There are a number of good ones out there, but there are also a number of bad brokers.
Forex.com, forexyard.com, easy-forex.com and forexwebtrader.com are some of the more popular ones.
What to Look For
There are a number of common aspects that are important. First, look to see what kind of leverage is available and what the spreads will be on the currency pairs you plan on trading on a regular basis. For the USD/EUR, the typical spread is between three and four pips.
Similarly, what are the rollover fees? And, are there any other fees associated with broker? High fees are not necessary, and should be avoided. See the “What is a rollover?” article for more information.
Then, look into what their trading platform looks like. Does it look like well-written software? Does it have the features you are concerned with and plan on using? For instance, can you trade currencies from your phone? That's not important if you don't plan on doing that, but if it's something you might eventually be interested in, then of course, go with a trader that offers this service, or just get a phone with high speed internet access.
Most brokers offer pretty extensive charting services. One big question should be, How customizable are the charts? As time goes on, you'll probably want to tweak some of the settings, and the ability to do so to great detail will matter more than you think.
If you sign up for a demo account, does the broker let you play around with its trading platform? It's certainly not a good sign if it doesn't.
Next, after you've answered all these questions, once you've got a couple of brokers you are considering, look into them. See what other traders have to say online, and if there's been any shady business with them in the past. A little research will pay dividends over the long term in a myriad of ways.

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The risk reward ratio reinforces the importance of always placing stop losses. If you risk $20,000 to gain $40,000, then that is a 2:1 risk reward ra

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It is generally a good idea to create a trading plan ahead of time. Some trading strategies are more conducive to long term planning than others. Day trading and scalping, for instance, can't be planned too far in advance, as both largely rely on the trader's almost instinctive reactions to the market as it moves and changes throughout the day.
But for most trading strategies – even for most types of swing trading – creating a preset plan is an important part of investing. Paradoxically, it is also important to have the ability to change your plans if things do not seem to be going as predicted. Having the discipline to stick to a plan, but knowing when to drop a trading plan like a bad habit is one of those aspects of forex trading that simply has to be learned with time – and a constant yearning to refine your trader's instincts.
Perhaps the most important part of a trading plan are the goals you set. Not in the general sense – everybody's goal is to make a lot of money – but in the very specific sense of how much profit are you seeking with each specific trade. You should know ahead of time when you think the market is going to turn, and you should set your sell orders accordingly. These exits points are critical to your success as a trader.
The little brother of the exit point is the entrance point. A good general strategy is to plot out where the support is that day, and make you purchase at a relatively calm time in the market when your currency pair nears its support line.
Before you do make your purchase, though, you should evaluate how much loss you are willing to tolerate. What is the expected volatility? How confident are you that a break out trend or whatever phenomenon you are looking for is actually going to happen? These are all questions your should ask yourself when you are making your plan and deciding where to place your stop orders.
Management of your capital is perhaps the least exciting part of being a trader, but it is the single most important variable in your plan – not because of the potential reward from proper money management, but because you risk taking a hit you can not get back up from if you invest too much. Similarly, spreading your risk out over various currencies or other investments is of critical importance.
The process of creating an explicitly written out trading not only leads to a very useful document, it also forces you to review your thinking and to look for weaknesses in your strategy and for potential pitfalls in your final plan. Like any important creative process, it forces you to take a second look at your assumptions and to justify certain conclusions that you may have taken for granted.
So, even if creating and reviewing you trading plan – which should explicitly outline each major step – doesn't change anything this time around, it strengthens your skills as an investor in the long run.

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Risk Reward Ratio

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What is Risk-Reward Ratio
The risk reward ratio should actually be called the reward risk ratio, since the first number – the RRR is generally denoted like odds at a race track – is usually the reward number, and the second is the risk. So, if you were looking at a risk reward ratio of 2:1, that means the reward is twice that of what is being risked.
The risk reward ratio is different than another popular statistic, that of risk-adjusted return, or alpha. Alpha calculates, in effect, the quality of the investment, whereas the risk reward ratio is simply a description of the risk you are taking to get a certain reward. For instance, if a risk return ratio is 4:1, that doesn't say anything about the probability of that large return actually materializing. It is, as its name implies, the ratio of risk and reward.
Furthermore, the risk reward ratio refers only to the risk and the reward of the investment itself – it does not refer to the potentially negative effects of that investment on your capital. Hence, changing how much you leverage a particular purchase does not actually change the risk reward ratio, even though the effective risk to your account may be fundamentally altered.
Without stop losses it is very difficult to calculate risk. Unless your currency pairs will automatically be sold at a certain point, the notion of how much money you are truly risking becomes an extremely subjective notion. The same can be said about less liquid currency pairs where there is a chance you will not find a buyer when the currency pairs starts to slide rapidly.
One thing to remember about the risk reward ratio is that it rarely if ever is set in stone. There are many ways to manipulate your risk reward ratio. Changing your stop loss orders is just one example. You can also reduce the amount you are looking to earn – that is, your exit point. By lowering your exit point, you reduce both how much you may earn, and the total risk you are exposed to.
Example
The risk reward ratio reinforces the importance of always placing stop losses. If you risk $20,000 to gain $40,000, then that is a 2:1 risk reward ratio. But if you forget to but that stop in there, and the currency ends up falling three times what you expected to gain, before you notice, then you are looking at a risk reward ratio of 2:3, which is a completely unacceptable ratio.
What is an acceptable risk reward ratio depends on your goals, the length of your exposure, and the probability of the reward being fulfilled. If it seems very probable that a reward will materialize in the time frame you have alloted, then you could very well be content with a ratio of 1:1. However, if there is only a 1:2 chance of the trade going your way, then you need a very large risk reward ratio to make it a logical investment.
The general rule of thumb is this: your risk reward ratio, times the probability of your reward materializing must be greater than the opportunity cost of other investments you could be making with that money.
Of course, probability is a whole heck of a lot harder to calculate than the risk reward ratio, but that's another subject for another time.

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Money Management

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Money Management
Money management is one of the most important aspects of forex trading. Even the most brilliant traders aren't right anywhere close to a hundred percent of the time, and if you risk too much on a regular basis, it won't matter how good you are at technical trading or analysis of the fundamentals.
Buying and selling the correct proportion of your total liquid capital is one of the most important aspects of money management, so, we'll start there. It is, however, just one of several tactics that help to minimize your risk and exposure and thus set the stage for consistently positive returns. So, this article won't stop there, but will explore each of the keys to successful money management for the forex trader.
Let's look at the problem in the most simplistic of terms. Let's say you invest 50% your capital in a single purchase, and because you leverage your money significantly – also generally a bad idea... always leverage cautiously – you end up losing it all. Now, you need to make a 100% return on your remaining capital just to break even. But, invest 10% and lose it, and you've got to make a perfectly reasonable return of approximately 11%. Invest 80% and lose it, though, you've got to make a 500% return with what you've got left. 90%, and you need to make an 1000% return. See the exponential curve that's happening here?
The bottom line: don't invest a large share of your money in any one investment. If you do, eventually you will get unlucky, and lose enough capital that you'll lack the capacity to trade at the same volume you've been trading at... a recipe for failure.
Stops are the other part of money management. It's the Starsky to proportionate investment's Hutch. There are four major types of stops.
The equity stop is the most common of stops. You simply place a sell order at a certain point, often 2% below your entry point. That way, even though you are investing, say, $20,000, you are only risking 2%, or $400. You can use equity stops both to get out when you've earned the amount you think you can get to in current market conditions and to get out early to avoid any large losses. Adjust the percentage to fit your desired risk level. Usually, 5% is considered the very height of riskiness.
Volatility stops are another commonly used type of stop. Basically, set parameters to sell when the market gets so volatile that it becomes too risky.
Volatility stops are just one type of chart stop. There are thousands of parameters you can use to create stops. Chart stops are any type of stop that uses various technical indicators – and combinations thereof – to decide when to buy or sell.
Lastly, there is the margin stop. Unlike the other types of stops, this type is based more on your individual account and less on the market itself If you are trading with leverage, you can place a margin call at any point of your account. Let's say 90%. That means, in effect, you get out of the market as soon the capital you've leveraged drops below 90% of its original value.
If you combine these techniques – these four types of stops and investment levels proportionate to your overall capital – you can manage your money effectively in a way that let's you pursue significant profit but protects you from large losses.

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Forex Options Basics

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Understanding Options
Options are usually associated with the stock market, but the foreign exchange market also uses these derivatives in trading. It gives traders the opportunity to make money at a risk he has set for himself. To understand this concept better, let us use the example of purchasing a car.
If you hold a contract that requires you can buy a certain car on May 1st at a price of $1,500, you have an option to buy the car. This option ensures that if the value of the car increases at the predetermined time of purchase (in this case on May 1st), then you will profit from it because you can sell the car to another person for more than the amount you originally paid for.

On the other hand, if the value of the car decreases from the original amount, it wouldn’t be beneficial to buy that car. The option gives you the right to buy, in this case, the car but not the responsibility to pay for it if you don’t want to. This significantly lessens the risks to the trader. There are basically two types of options available to retail traders. These include the traditional call/put option and the single payment option trading (SPOT) trading.
Types of Forex Options
Traditional Option
The traditional call/put option works very much like the stock option. It gives the buyer the right (but not the obligation) to buy from the option seller at a specified time and price. For example, a trader can purchase the option to buy four lots of EUR/USD at 1.4000 for a certain month (this contract is called a EUR call/USD put). Remember that in the options market, you buy a call and a put at the same time. If the price of the EUR/USD goes below 1.4000, then the buyer loses the premium. But if the EUR/USD increases to 1.6000, then the buyer can use the option and gain the four lots for the agreed upon amount and sell it at a profit.
The Forex option are traded over-the counter. Because of this, Forex traders can easily choose the price and date of their preferred option. They will receive a quote regarding the premium they need to pay in order to get the option.
There are two kinds of traditional options available today:
American Style Option
Can be used at any point until the expiration date
European Style Option
Can only be used at the point of expiration
Probably the main advantage of traditional call/put option over its counterpart is the fact that it requires lower premium. In addition, because the American-style option allows it to be traded even before expiration, forex traders gain more flexibility. On the downside, traditional options are requires more work to set and execute compared to SPOT options.
Single Payment Options Trading (SPOT)
SPOT options have almost the same concept as traditional options. The main difference is that the forex trader will first give a scenario (UER/USD will break 1.4000 in 2 weeks), gets a premium, and then receive cash if his scenario occurs. SPOT trading converts the option to cash automatically if your trade is successful. This type of option is very easy to trade because it only requires you to enter a scenario and then wait for the results.
Essentially, if your scenario plays out, you receive cash. But if it is incorrect, you will shoulder the loss of the premium. Another advantage of the SPOT option is it allows a wide variety of choices for the trader. He can choose the exact scenario that he thinks will play out. The main downside of the SPOT premium is that it is higher. In general, it costs significantly more than its counterpart.

Benefits and Downsides of SPOT Options

Benefits:

There are a lot of reasons why SPOT options appeal to a lot of investors and forex traders. Among its many benefits include:

Financial risks is limited to the premium (the payment to buy the option)

Infinite profit potential
The trader sets the price and the date

Requires less money up-front compared to the spot Forex position
The option can hedge against cash positions and limit risks
Options give the opportunity to trade on predictions about future market movements without the risk of losing a lot of capital

SPOT options provide a lot of choices including standard options, one-touch SPOT, No-touch SPOT, Digital SPOT, Double one-touch SPOT, and Double no-touch SPOT.

Downsides:

But if options have all these benefits, why isn’t everyone into this type of forex trading? It is important to recognize that it does have its downsides as well.

Premium varies

depending on the date of the option and strike price. Because of this, the risk/reward ratio fluctuates as well .

SPOT options are not allowed to be traded. Once you buy it, you can’t sell it

It is difficult to predict when and at what price the market will move

What Determines the Option Price ?

As was mentioned earlier, the premium price can vary because of several factors. This is why the risk/reward ratio of forex options trading varies. Some of the factors that determine the price are:

Intrinsic Value

This is the current price of the option if it was used. The position of this price against the strike price can be described in three ways such as “in the money” (when the strike price is higher than the current value), “out of money” (the strike price is lower than the current value), and “at the money” (the strike price and the current value are at the same level).

Time Value

This reflects the uncertainty of market movements over time. In general, the longer the time period of the option, the higher the price you have to pay.

Interest Rate Differential

A change in the interest rates has an impact on the relationship between the strike price and the current market value. This differential is often included in the premium as part of the time value.

Volatility

High volatility increases the probability that the market price will hit the strike price in a certain timeframe. Volatility is often included as part of the time value. Usually, volatile currencies require higher premiums.

4x Options Conclusion
Options offer another opportunity for traders to make a profit with lower risks involved. Forex options, in particular, are prevalent during periods of political uncertainty, important economic developments, and significant volatility. It is up to the trader whether he will take advantage of the opportunity presented by forex options or not.

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How to Trade Synthetic Crosses

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A synthetic pair is a combination of two currency pairs that are combined in such a way that the trader's positions on the third currency mutual to both pairs – almost always the U.S. dollar – cancel each other out. That way, the trader effectively makes himself a currency pair of whatever two currencies he would like.
The trader accomplishes this by going long on one currency and short on the other. For example, let's say a trader would like to synthesize a Canadian dollar/Japanese yen pair – CAD/JPY. He or she would go short on, say, $10,000 worth of the loonie, and go long another $10,000 on the Japanese yen.
It's difficult to find graphing services for synthetic pairs. Google and Yahoo both offer services that are adequate, but neither really goes all out with extensively customizable charting options. That being said, they work well enough, and should be enough for you to track your synthetic pairs.
When one half of your synthetic pair comes from a currency pair that is usually listed with the USD last, make sure you convert the pair appropriately.
For instance, if you were making a currency pair with the euro, you would take the current value of the EUR/USD and divide your desired dollar amount by that number. So, if you were purchasing $100,000 worth of one currency and $100,000 of the EUR/USD, and the current value of the euro was a painfully high $1.58, you would want to purchase $100,000/1.58 worth of euros, or $63,291.
Synthetic pairs are more work, but they open up a considerable number of new options for the trader. They are not genuine currency pairs, but they protect the trader from variations in the third pair just enough that they behave like something close to an actual currency pair.
Synthetic pairs are also more difficult to get right, as the trader needs to be right about both of the currencies. However, when a trader is indeed right on both fronts, he or she will generally make a considerable profit.

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Trading Cross Currencies

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Currency crosses are also known as cross currency pairs. They are, simply, currency pairs that do not involve the US dollar. Trading in currency crosses makes up less than 10% of the market. Currency crosses that use the euro are typically called euro crosses. Other pairs are often called cross rates. It used to be that all currencies had to be traded to dollars and then converted to another currency. However, that system has been atrophying for some time. As trade volume has grown among individual countries, the forex markets have adapted.
One of the first currency pairs to not involve the US dollar was the GBP/JPY. The GBP has a reputation of being a oil-neutral currency. Because the country's exports and imports of oil roughly balance each other out, when the oil market is showing jitters, traders used to rush the the pound as a safe haven. The favorability of the GBP combined with the importance of the Japanese economy to lead many firms and investors to start trading in GBP/JPY long before currency crosses were at all well-known.
Since the markets have gained confidence in the euro, currency crosses are becoming more and more common. For instance, roughly 50% of the UK's trade is with Europe, so it makes since the EUR/GBP has become a more common pair lately. That being said, currency crosses still make up a much smaller proportion of forex activity than the majors. As such, these pairs are considerably less liquid than the majors. Furthermore, trading hours are often restricted for non major pairs. These two factors seriously reduce the number of traders that actively trade in cross currency pairs. While it is probable that currency crosses will slowly grow over the long term, it is very likely that they will only make up a small share of overall forex trading volume for a very long time

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Commodity Currencies

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Commodity Currencies

Commodity currencies are currencies of countries that rely primarily on exports of commodities to fuel their economy. The major quirk in the behavior of commodity currencies is that their value will usually go up and down as a country's main exports rise and fall on the floor of the commodity markets. With the exception of Canada, the economies that are home to commodity currencies are relatively small. This is because, generally speaking, the smaller a country's economy, the greater the role of international trade in its economy.
The most commonly traded commodity currencies hail from the three lesser sons of the British empire: Canada, New Zealand and Australia. Because all three officially call their currencies dollars, you'll sometimes hear these three currencies referred to as “comdolls.” Of course, oil is the most important commodity out there, and each of the major oil producing countries are home to a commodity currency.
Canada is an exporter of oil, and even though it produces about the same amount of oil as the US , its economy is far, far smaller than its older brother to its south. So, its currency rises and falls in part due to oil prices. Timber is another major commodity export for Canada, though its price has less of a correlation to its currency's price as does oil.


Gold is another major commodity, and it is the main export that makes Australia's currency a comdoll. In fact, if you look at a chart of gold and a chart of the Aussie, you'll notice that the two have run almost parallel for the better part of two decades now.


The mention of the Aussie chart brings up a good point about commodity currencies, and one that makes trading them a whole lot easier: Commodity prices will almost always begin moving before their currencies do. So, if gold sky rockets, it's just a matter of time before the Australian dollar will do the same. Thus, you keep an eye on the Aussie, and when a break-out trend starts, there's a good chance it will be a big one.
New Zealand's exports are not dominated by any one commodity. However, commodity exports still make up a large portion of its economy. Various commodity indexes have proved to be a good long term predictor of the Kiwi's strength.
Keep in mind that the correlation between the comdolls and their export commodities is very strong, but only in the long term. Short term spikes in commodity prices usually mean little for the correlated currency. Rather, once a long term trend becomes apparent, the forex market sees the writing on the wall, and is quick to react. So, combining long term forex strategies like carry trades with commodity currency-based strategies is often a good idea.



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Important Charting Patterns When Trading Forex

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Important patterns exist within forex trading that offer traders cues as to when by or sell, and sometime as to what direction the market is about to move in. The following is an explanation of some of the most important patterns to recognize.
Many of these patterns are also self-reinforcing: People believe they are going to happen, so that makes them happen in a fashion dramatic enough to be more noticeable.
Many of the patterns have mirror opposites. For instance, the “double bottom” simply behaves in the exact opposite way as the “double bottom.” This makes learning about chart patterns easier. Once you've learned what one indicates, you just reverse everything, and now you know what two different patterns mean.
The first pattern to recognize is the symmetrical triangle. This is what happens when you are looking at a chart of a currency pair, and the lows are getting higher and the highs are getting lower. If you were to draw two trend lines of the lows and the highs, they would be converging, with the base of the triangle to the left and point to the right.
It's often symptomatic of an important event approaching. Traders are watching the waiting for something – say, an announcement from the Fed concerning interest rates – and as that event approaches, traders have settled into their positions, and are awaiting the results.
A symmetrical triangle usually means that the market will break out in one direction or the other. It doesn't indicate what direction the market is about to move, but it is a very strong indication that something is about to happen.
To take advantage of this, place entry orders above and below the high and low slope lines, respectively. That way, you can just “hitch a ride” in whatever direction the market moves.
Ascending and descending triangles are two similar patterns. In the case of the former, there is a flat slope line on top, and an ascending line on the bottom. The lows are getting higher, but the highs can't seem to break a certain barrier. This suggests the buyers are putting upwards pressure on a currency, but don't seem able surpass a barrier. Sometimes, that barrier is psychological, like $100 a barrel for oil.
Like in the case of the symmetrical triangle, the narrowing of the range suggests a break up will indeed occur. More often than not, whether its the buyers with an ascending triangle or the sellers with a descending triangle, the group putting pressure on the barrier will win out, and the currency will break in their direction – up for buyers, down for sellers.
Of course, there's a big difference between “more often than not” and “always.” The almost certainly will break out one way or the other, but it's only probable, not nearly certain, that it will move in the direction the ascending or descending triangle would suggest.
These two triangles bring up an important side point: Usually, currencies lose value faster than they gain it. That is to say, a descending triangle suggests somewhat more future volatility than an ascending.
A “double top” happens when a currency twice tops out at about the same point. Usually, it means that pressure from buyers has a pretty strong ceiling at that price, and the recognition of this fact tends to lead to sell orders.
Go short below the valley between the two tops, and, if you've identified the trend correctly, you should be in a good position to do well.
A “double bottom” is the exact reverse of a double top.
Then, there is the “head and shoulders.” This happens when there is a small peak in price, then a large one, then a small one of similar size to the first small peak. It operates like a descending triangle in this instance. The first peak essentially reinforces the smaller descending triangle – which is how the chart would read if you took went from the highest peak, or head, to the last peak, or right shoulder. The first head just makes the pattern that much more indicative of a looming break out in the direction of the sellers.
The reverse head and shoulders is, obviously, the exact reverse of the head and shoulders.

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Japanese Candlestick Patterns

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Candlestick analysis denotes a particular type of technical analysis derived from price information gleaned from a candlestick chart of a particular security. This type of analysis is quite popular because of the fact that there is a significant amount of trend information hidden in a candlestick chart. Before we examine some of these trends, we will quickly overview what a candlestick chart looks like.
The basic chart is comprised of many candlesticks spaced over specified time intervals. The candlesticks themselves represent the range of prices that the particular security takes in those particular time periods.
Let us turn to the actual specifics of what the candlestick diagrams represent. The candlestick is comprised of a body that constitutes the opening and closing prices for the security during that particular period. Protruding from the top and bottom of the body are the wicks that represent the top and bottom prices for the trading period. If the security closes the period at a higher closing price, the body is white, whereas, when the opposite is true, the body is shaded black.
This charting method allows investors to see a lot more pertinent return information in a smaller amount of space. In addition, the shading pattern gives the investor a qualitative visual signal to quickly determine whether the instrument is trending up or down. We will now move on to two types of well-known candlestick trends used by investors.
The long lower shadow trend is one wherein the lower wick is quite large. This trend denotes a bullish market for the security. For this trend to be reliable, the lower wick must be at least as long as the body.
The long upper shadow is one wherein the upper wick is quite large. This trend denotes a bearish market for the security. For this trend to hold weight, the upper wick must be at least as long as the body.
The real benefit that candlestick analysis provides is the ability to perform shorter-term trend analysis of high and low prices in response to opening and closing prices. Candlesticks, as has been mentioned, portion the investment horizon into bite-sized periods, each with its own opening price. The high and low prices serve as a means for investors to gauge how markets responded to that initial opening price, either by bidding the price either up or down.
In order to make a rational investment, one would want to pool together candlestick data from several investment periods. As is the case with most types of analysis, investment trends are most rigorously predicted the more data one uses in order to come to a particular trend conclusion. Thus, one would not only want to use candlestick data from over several periods, but one would also want to see whether particular candlestick trends hold up over several periods or whether they tend to vacillate. The more consistency there is among one’s trends, the more likely those trends are to continue.
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Common Candlestick Patterns and History of Japanese Candlesticks

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It's not too often that tools of financial analysis have a near-mythical origin. In the forex market, however, the most common graphs are referred to as “candlestick” charts. The type of candlestick charts that are used by forex traders was developed in Japan over 500 years ago. There, a merchant used these visual representation for the movements of prices in a rice market. He became, we are told, very, very rich.
This history has given some of the candlestick chart patterns very funny names. Fortunately, these colorful name make it easier to remember what is what. Before we get into the patterns and what they mean, a quick tutorial on the anatomy of a candlestick chart is necessary. A candlestick can represent a day, week, hour, fifteen minutes or any other time frame of your choosing. The thick part of the stick is called the body. The two lines that are usually on either side of the body are called the shadows. The edges of the body represent the price at the open and close of each time period. If the time increment had a higher close than it did opening, it will have a certain color, and if the session ended lower, it will be a different color. The color choice varies from graph to graph, but usually the lighter color mean the session saw growth in value. For our purposes, let's assume that the chart is just in black and white, though red and blue are equally common. The lines on either end of the body represent the intra-period high and low.
One common pattern is the Marabuzo. In it, there is no shadow on either end of the candlestick. This suggests a very bullish or bearish session, depending on the color. A White Marabuzo, for instance, would mean that the value of the currency pair started the session at the bottom of the body, and, never dipping below that point, finished at its high for the time period. A “spinning tops” candlestick is essentially the reverse. In it, the shadow is longer than the body. It means that the market closed much closer to its opening than the periods highs or lows. Short and long days mean, respectively, that the market moved little and moved a lot.
Now, let's move on to some of the patterns made up of multiple candlesticks. The dark cloud pattern consists of a white long body candlestick followed by a larger black long body where the end of the black body surpasses the midpoint of the white candlestick. It means there was a good session, and then an especially bad one. Usually, this means the negative movement will carry over to the next session, and the shorts will do well.
Bullish Engulfing patterns are when there is a short black body followed by a longer white body. Often, it is the sign that a trend has played itself out, and average prices will start moving in the opposite direction. A bullish engulfing pattern is usually found at the valley of a price swing. A bearish engulfing pattern is just the opposite, and is usually found at the top of a peak in value.
Three Black Crows is three long body negative periods in a row, found in the middle of an otherwise upwards trend. It is a very bearish sign. It usually means the market has decided it is over-valued. Three White Soldiers is the opposite, three white candlesticks in a row in the midst of an otherwise downward trend. Likewise, it means that the market considers the currency in question undervalued and is a sign of an opening for the bulls.
Lastly, there is the Falling and Rising Three Methods, which are the bullish and bearish equivalents of each other. In the former, there is a long black body, followed by three days that stay within the body of the first long body. That is a relatively strong sign that the next, fifth day will be similar to the first day.
There are other, less common patterns with equally enjoyable names. But now you've learned the most important patterns that are found most frequently.

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Bollinger Bands Introduction

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Bollinger Bands are used as an indicator to compare both volatility and relative price levels over a specific time period. The indicator is made up of three bands that are specifically designed to cover the majority of the price action of a security. The Bollinger Bands were created by market technician John Bollinger, who came up with the technique of using averages that move with to trading bands, as the Bollinger Bands add and subtract a calculation of standard deviation.
Standard deviation is a measuring mathematical formula that measures volatility and shows how the price of stock can spread around the stock’s “true value.” The technician looking at the bands can be pretty sure that all of the data for pricing can be found in between the two bands.
The Bollinger Bands are made up of a centerline and two price channels. One channel is above the centerline and another price channel below the centerline. The centerline is seen as an exponential moving average. The price channels are seen as standard deviations of the chart that is being studied by the person looking at the chart. The Bollinger Bands will expand and contract when the price action is volatile, expands, or is bound to a trading pattern that is tight, contracts.
It may be the case that a stock can trade for long time periods in a trend, but sometimes there will be some volatility. In order to see the trend better traders will use moving averages in order to filter the price action. By doing this the traders can get vital information in terms of discovering how the market is trading. For instance, after a major fall or rise in the trend, the market can consolidate, trading in a narrow way and crossing both above and below the average of the market. In order to look at this action traders will use price channels that are specifically designed to deal with all the trading activity around the trend.
Markets are erratic in their daily trading even though it is the case that they continue to trade in a trend that is upwards or downwards. Technicians, using lines of support and resistance, in order to anticipate the stock’s price action, use moving averages. Lower support lines and upper resistance lines are primarily drawn and then inferences are drawn to form channels. Within these channels there is an expectation by the trader that the prices will be contained.
There are traders that draw straight lines to connect the top or bottom of the prices in order to identify both the upper and lower price extremes. Then parallel lines are added in order to define the channel, where in the channel, the prices should move. If the prices do not move out of this channel the trader can know with a certain degree of confidence that the prices are moving as expected.
Traders are aware that when the price of the stock keeps touching the upper Bollinger Band that the price is seen to be over-bought. Conversely, when the price of the stock keeps touching the lower band the process are seen to be oversold, therefore a buy signal would be seen.
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Moving Averages and Technical Trading

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A moving average is a simple technique that lets chart-makers and analysts sift out a lot of the “noise” that short term price swings create. A more common term outside of the forex market that means the same thing is a “rolling average.” You'll hear about the concept most frequently in public opinion polling when election season comes around and people want to be able to spot trends in voting behavior.
To create a moving average, you take the values of a given currency pair over a certain period of time. Let's say three days. That figure is one point in the moving average line on your graph. The next day, you drop off the last of those three days, and add in that day's numbers.
The benefit is a smoother line with less meaningless statistical noise if you had just made a trend line out of the daily averages. Moving averages combine some of the short-term sensitivity of day-to-day averages, and some of the stability of a series of larger samples.
Instead of taking an average of one period – let's say in this example one week – and just comparing it to the next week's data, the moving average let's you see not just the trend after the fact, but how the trend develops as it is happening.


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Price Channels

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Price channels are a chart tool used by traders to set buy and sell points for currencies. They usually consist of two parallel lines above and below the value of a currency. They are used by traders most often to catch a breakout, whether it be a bullish or bearish one.
They are bit trickier than regular trend lines, as they require a somewhat more established pattern. Traders often force both trend lines and price channels onto charts where they don't belong, and end up acting with overconfidence because of the big line on the screen that's just that, a line on a screen, not reflective of any real trend or channel.
To detail the creative process of a price line at its most basic: Price channels are drawn by creating a trend line, and then running lines – usually parallel – above and below the trend line. If enough points on each side match up, then there might be a valid price channel.
Often times, though, the trend line is a weak trend that signals little in terms of the currency pair's true range. Traders may make a relatively arbitrary price channel, and then when the price leaves the channel, assume that a breakout is occurring, and place buy or sell orders for no good reason.
When a price channel is valid, however, traders can use it to place buy and sell orders at its edge, thus catching a breakout before it happens.
Price channels are easy to use, the trick is knowing when to use them.

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Price Channels

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Price channels are a chart tool used by traders to set buy and sell points for currencies. They usually consist of two parallel lines above and below the value of a currency. They are used by traders most often to catch a breakout, whether it be a bullish or bearish one.
They are bit trickier than regular trend lines, as they require a somewhat more established pattern. Traders often force both trend lines and price channels onto charts where they don't belong, and end up acting with overconfidence because of the big line on the screen that's just that, a line on a screen, not reflective of any real trend or channel.
To detail the creative process of a price line at its most basic: Price channels are drawn by creating a trend line, and then running lines – usually parallel – above and below the trend line. If enough points on each side match up, then there might be a valid price channel.
Often times, though, the trend line is a weak trend that signals little in terms of the currency pair's true range. Traders may make a relatively arbitrary price channel, and then when the price leaves the channel, assume that a breakout is occurring, and place buy or sell orders for no good reason.
When a price channel is valid, however, traders can use it to place buy and sell orders at its edge, thus catching a breakout before it happens.
Price channels are easy to use, the trick is knowing when to use them.

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Support and Resistance

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Support and resistance for a currency pair at certain price levels comes from several different sources.
Either barrier is always at least somewhat psychological in nature. Given this, it helps to explain resistance and support by picturing the market as a contest of strength between the bears and the bulls.
Let's use a classic example of a purely psychological barrier: oil at $100/a barrel Of course, economic fundamentals are important in determining the long term price of a commodity like oil, but the market's current mood and focus are much more important in terms of short term price gyrations.
As geopolitical tensions mounted, and a renewal of focus on the rising long-term demand for oil started to flash itself across the TV screen on a nightly basis, traders were pushing oil closer and closer to $100 a barrel. Each time the bulls got close, though, they would begin to encounter resistance The notion of $100 a barrel just seemed a little crazy to too many people. So, the bears would start to gain the upper hand and a mild sell-off would occur. This didn't last long, of course... oil now rests well above a hundred dollars a barrel. But the point is, arbitrarily round number points sometimes provide support or resistance to a currency, commodity, or stock price.
Currency traders often produce trend lines of a stock by drawing a straight line through as many high or low points as can be found on a linear path. Plotting that line into the future will often give the market a sense of where the currency pair is going, and thus will create either resistance or support for a currency along that line.
The same can be said about moving averages, which most forex trading sites will graph for you with a click of a button. Moving averages – as well as bollinger bands – will often be used by the market to determine where those in the middle will ally with the bulls or with the bears.
With all of these sources of resistance or support – round numbers, moving averages, bollinger bands, linear high and low lines, etc. – the market creates that resistance or support. It is important to remember that resistance and support do not come from any economic fundamentals inherent in a currency pair or any other item that is being traded.
Rather, because trader believes report or resistance exists somewhere, it does. In fact, it is often the economic fundamentals that end up finally forcing the market to push a currency pair above or below resistance or support levels.
So, the longer a point of resistance has been around, the stronger it usually is. Conversely, once people start talking about an historic resistance or support point being broken, a self-fulfilling dynamic can be created.
Once a strong resistance point is broken, a strong trend one way or the other often occurs at this point, as traders experiment and try to find a new source of support or resistance When the new point is finally found, volatility usually dies down for a bit, until the next event occurs that moves the market.
As a general rule, points of resistance and support are much more important to those practicing short term trading, especially swing traders, than it is to longer term traders. Because resistance levels are largely a psychologically created phenomenon removed from economic fundamentals, they only last so long, and tend not to effect the long-term value of a currency pair.

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Technical Analysis and Charting Indicators

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Perhaps the most frequently encountered type of chart in the forex world are those depicting Bollinger Bands. Named after John Bollinger, a forex trader who operated mainly during the 1970s and 80s, the Bollinger band is based a rolling average of a given currency pair. Two lines run parallel to the line. For example, a middle line will follow the daily average, and then the outside lines will run parallel at +.1% and -.1% of the average line.
With this visual aid, traders can see where the value of the currency pair currently is in relation to its average value. The object is to adjust the outer two bands so that they represent the peak and valleys of the currency pair. That way, traders can by at the low and sell at the high, thus, even if a currency is not moving much over the course of the day, traders can nonetheless make significant profit with this technical trading tool.
The top and bottom can be adjusted to more accurately reflect the currency's movement in certain environments. Daily volatility is the most important variable in regards to the size of the Bollinger band.
For information on trading patterns in the Bollinger Band and other major charts, see the “Important Chart Patterns” essay.
MACD is short for Moving Average Convergence Divergence. This chart is used to try to spot trends as they are beginning. Obviously, getting in on a trend at the beginning and not the end is one of the most important aspects of trading.
Let's explain the MACD by way of an example. The MACD consists of two lines and a bar chart. It is generally set at 12-26-9. The 12 means the more erratic line is set as a rolling average of the 12 previous days, the smoother line is the past 26 days, and the 9 means the bar chart is a 9 day rolling average of the difference between the two lines. By analyzing the difference between the two lines, the bar chart at the bottom can help predict new trends, and thus make traders a good amount of money.
The MACD is a very popular, but very basic chart. Its predictive abilities can often be powerful, but are often enough prone to error. It is better at gaging the strength of a trend then it is at predicting the direction of that.
The Parabolic SAR
SAR stands for Stop And Reversal. It's another one of the most important graphs used by technical traders. It is a very simple graph that is easy to use. The buy and sell candles are graphed, and a small dotted line follows along them, symbolizing possible reversals in the movement of a price of a currency.
When the dots are above the candles, it potentially signals it is time to sell. When they are below, it may be time to buy. It is as simple as that.
Stochastics
Developed by George Lane in the 1950s, stochastics are indicators that attempt to measure when a currency is oversold or overbought. The chart is based on a 100-point scale, and is based on relatively complex mathematical models. When the chart is above 80, that is a sign that the market is overbought, and it is time to sell. When it is under 20, that is a sign the market is oversold and it is time to buy. Some trades use different benchmarks, such as 75-25, or 70-30.
Relative Strength Index
The relative strength index, or RSI, is very similar to stochastics. It is a 100 point scale that measures whether the market is oversold or overbought. It is very similar to stochastics in function, but based on somewhat different variables.
Now that you've gotten a very basic understanding of the charts, you are ready to read the “Important Chart Indicators” essay so you start to know how to use them.

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Best Chart Choices

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In trying to understand what financial data predicts in future returns of a particular currency, the investor can turn to different types of graphs in order to glean varying types of information. We will outline the pros and cons of candlestick, line, and bar charts. It should be noted that while our examples present daily financial data, these charts can have their time scales adjusted to present either larger time frames orsmaller ones.Candlestick charts
Candlestick Charts
Candlestick charts not only provide trends in currency data but also provide bounds on the daily variation in exchange rates. However, what is more interesting is that candlestick charts also form a good measure of investor confidence in a particular foreign currency. We present an example of a candlestick chart below. Over each trading day, there is a box-and-whiskers-type figure. The box is darkened if the exchange rate closed lower than its opening price. The box is white if the opposite happened. If the box is black, the top of the box represents the opening price and the bottom represents the closing price. If the box were white, the opposite is the case. The top and bottom of the whiskers represent the daily high and low for the rate respectively.


It is exactly this attention to consumer confidence that led Japanese futures traders to turn to this chart form as early as the 1700s. In fact the distinction between candlestick charts and line and bar charts are historically the geographical difference in preference between Japanese and American traders. (Things have changed, however, and the candlestick form has become ubiquitous in America as well.)


A somewhat confusing aspect of candlestick charts is how conflicted Japanese traders were with the importance of prices. They thought, on one hand, that asset prices were the most important information that a trader could have before making a trade yet, simultaneously, found that asset prices did not correlate directly to the underlying value of the asset at hand. This is to say that the investors would reflect their views on the asset market in the prices they bid and asked for but that their views were not necessarily commensurate with inherent market value. Rather, these bids also involved their emotions and apprehensions to a certain extent. The reliance of traders on their emotions implied that markets would fluctuate with investor confidence.

Bar charts

Below, we present a comparison of a bar chart and a candlestick chart of the same financial information. It is immediately apparent that this chart form leaves out some information. Namely, it gives the daily high and low values, but leaves out the opening price (and therefore the day's swing), only giving the closing price which is marked as a tick on the whisker.


While the bar chart does leave out certain data values, there are someadvantages to this chart form as opposed to the candlestick chart. The bar chart is much less cluttered than the candlestick chart and analysts can consistently fit in more data values into less chart space with the bar chart format.

Line charts

Line charts provide yet another charting method for financial data. Their popularity stems from the fact that they are the easiest type of chart to read. In a day-by-day line chart, as in the one below, the only information above each day is the day's closing exchange rate. It is also the most amenable to presenting the most data.

As one can clearly see, the con to this type of chart is that it leaves out the most information. As was stated earlier, candlestick and bar charts provide the trader with the high and low exchange rate values, as well as the closing rate (and also the opening rate in the case of candlestick charts). This information is useful in the sense that it gives the trader a sense of the asset's volatility and direction. Line charts do not package this information well.
However, it should be noted that if the trader has more data values, it is possible to make line charts very informative. Most asset ticker websites nowadays have continuous streaming financial data, which means that their line charts contain all the data that is available on a particular asset, including exchange rates that the forex trader might be interested in.
On the other hand, while the line chart acts as a graphical representation of the exchange rate as a function of time, it does not organize the high and low prices for that particular exchange rate in relation to the opening and closing prices as succinctly as a candlestick chart would. Rather, it gives the trader all of that same information plus more, arranged chronologically by second.
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Forex Chart Types

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There are three main types of charts that are used by most traders in the forex market. Two of them, bar charts and candlestick charts, display basically the same information in a different visual mediums. The other type of chart, perhaps the most common in finance and trading in general, is the simple line chart.
Line Chart
Sometimes the line chart represents the day's average price for a particular currency pair. Still other times it is the closing price. It is useful for looking at long term direction of prices and for the correlation of a currency pair with other variables, such as commodity prices or trade defects.On most good websites, any number of different variables can be grouped together to see how they correlate in the real world.






The major strength of the line chart is that it is easy to read and spot directional changes. The major weakness is that there is no way to see daily price volatility.

Bar Chart

The next type of chart is the bar chart. Like most charts, it has two notches on it, one representing opening and one representing closing costs. The one on the left represents the opening cost, the one on the right represents the closing. The edges of each bar represent the highs and lows for the day.



There are few advantages that the bar chart offers over the candlestick chart, other than accessibility for first time chart readers. The candlestick chart offers all the same information, but in a manner that lets the reader who is familiar with the format pick up the information in a quicker manner.

Candlestick Chart


Candlestick charts are perhaps the most popular type of chart for the forex market and forex websites in general. They instantly let a reader know what's gone on that day and where the market has moved. For more information on how to read candlestick charts, see the article, “candlestick patterns.”


On any quality forex brokerage website, these charts can be changed around to fit your specific needs. Candlestick and bar charts can usually be arranged so their units represent anything from one minute to one year. Line charts can similarly be manipulated.
Charting services vary in quality, and a site's graphing capabilities are one of the most important features of a website. There are also subjective qualities to charts. Some traders prefer different color schemes or other small details that make it easier for them to read the charts. In the end, you should choose the charting service that works best for you personally, keeping in mind that your need for complexity is going to grow as you become a more sophisticated trader.

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