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بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
استراتيجية الموجو
الاستراتيجية في ذلك الموقع تؤجر ولا تباع حيث تؤجر بمبلغ 200 دولار شهريا.
الرجل يؤجرها ولا يبيعها !!! : فهو مدرك لقيمة هذه الاستراتيجية حتى يسحبها من السوق متى أراد !!
يمكنكم التأكد من جميع معلوماتي من الموقع نفسه.
الاستراتيجية من خبرتي وتجربتي في الفوركس قائمة على أسس صحيحة تجمع بين التحليل الفني الكلاسيكي والمؤشرات.
طبعا يمكنكم مراجعة الأداء الخاص بالاستراتيجية لمراقبة نجاحها الباهر.
واليكم شرح الاستراتيجية من موقعها باللغة الانجليزية
I look for a short candle with more buyers than sellers at the bottom. I look for a short candle with buyers than sellers at the top.
Mojo Pivot System
Basic information you should know about the system.
What is the MojoPivot System?
MojoPivot System is a trading package based on custom developed set of indicators and mechanical discretion rules developed for foreign exchange currency trading environment. It is run on the very powerful and popular MetaTrader 4 trading platform.
Apply template (Mojopivot-Line or MojoPivot-Bar) to any 15M chart of forex currency pairs. You may open 1H timeframe or higher to get the bigger picture.
If possible reapply the template when new PivotZone day starts to avoid any possible data glitch.
The Package:
Filename File placement location Description
1 MPi-PZ.ex4 Program files\Metatrader4\experts\indicators MojoPivot
2 MPi-TL.ex4 Program files\Metatrader4\experts\indicators Trandline
3 MPi-HB.ex4 Program files\Metatrader4\experts\indicators Hook break
4 MPi-ASC.ex4 Program files\Metatrader4\experts\indicators ASC trigger
5 MPe-Alert Program files\Metatrader4\experts Speech alert
6 MP-Candle.tpl Program files\Metatrader4\experts\indicators Template - candle
7 MP-Line.tpl Program files\Metatrader4\experts\indicators Template - line
8 version.txt Program files\Metatrader4\experts\indicators Version info
Two | Mindframe
Before we begin, it is necessary to get our head into the proper perspective. In short, I need you to think like me (and preferably even better) so you can understand what to look for when you see my screen setup.
Maxim #1
Price is the ultimate indicator. Others lag.
As indicators are mathematical calculations based on price data, it is EXTREMELY IMPORTANT to remember that they are all at the mercy of price. Indicators will bend, if price bends. If price refuses to bend, the indicator eventually will follow. Price will move because it wants to move, not because the indicator says so. Price shapes & forms the indicator. We CANNOT foretell the future price from indicators (especially cyclic ones).
There is no such thing as oversold/bought. Trend will break them to pieces before they have the chance to scream for mercy. Divergence cannot be trusted unless price decides to act in that direction. Price before indicator – not the other way around. Never get this reversed. Nobody knows where the boom ends. Time will tell if it’s really over. The further we process price into an indicator’s calculation, the bigger reaction lag we get. Even if we provide a forward bias algorithm, that bias will only last for a slight moment. It will get you either baldness or heart problem from constantly flipping signals.
The faster an indicator produces signals, the sooner we react, the more false signals we get, bigger risk we take. The slower it spits out signals, the more reliable it gets, the later you enter, the less reward you get.
Life is unfair. Accept it, get used to it, move on.
This is exactly why I don’t look at MACD. The best moves come when MACD is microscopically near zero – yet my system said sell since the beginning of the day. – GBPUSD 15m
Maxim #2
See it. Plan it. React.
See.
When looking at the market chart, it is important that we stick to the points below at ALL times:
· The market has only 2 directions: UP or DOWN.
· See point A, and if the market is ABOVE point A. We say that the market is UP.
· See point A, and if the market is BELOW point A. We say that the market is DOWN.
· Even when it is ranging, it has a direction – the last direction that it is trying to defend.
Anybody who tells me otherwise should get his or her head examined. Do not try to predict tops and bottoms. We would rather stick around until the market goes our way. If it’s not going our way, don’t ask ‘why’. Just wait. It is FASTER and SAFER to make money in the direction of market than to fight it. I just do not understand why people take the risky path, when there is money to pluck right off the tree.
Remember these fundamental principles AT ALL TIMES. You will be quite surprised how stupid you can be when your emotions take over.
Plan.
Trading is all about having a plan. When we have plan A, we stick with it until it is proven wrong – then plan B comes in. If we do not have a plan, don’t trade! If you cannot come up with a plan, I suggest you leave this industry until you can.
The simpler the plan, the more energy you will have left to focus on your trading nerve; especially when market drags you into a spiky swing massacre. When the market moves swiftly, we will need to evaluate the position in a split-second and execute our decision before the market moves too far. The simpler the plan, the faster we can think, and the more misjudgment can be avoided.
My plan is stupendously simple. When the market is going UP, we do not fight it by selling. We are looking to BUY and close all SHORT positions. When the market is going DOWN, we do not fight it by buying. We are looking to SELL and close all LONG positions, if any. Very simple. Stick with it and you will be just fine. Why do we want to BUY? Because it is going UP. Why do we need to SELL? Because it is going DOWN. If you want to do the opposites, go see a psychiatrist/shrink.
React.
We should react and execute our plan when we see our trigger – signs that tell us the market is going our way. When we find the market is heading up as we have a long/buy plan in our hands, we will go long. On the other hand, when we are sure that the market is going down on a short/sell plan, then we react by entering a short order. We also react when we are proven wrong at certain point by closing our order and/or reversing to follow the market to the new direction.
By having these very basic principles in our head, we always have a view of the market on every trading day of the week. After we have a view, we wait for the opportunity to come, and we grab it when it passes in front of us. When we have a view, we know when/where our view is proven wrong and change our view and reverse our trade. It is important toremember that we are not forecasting movement. We are only hitchhiking. There should be no pride for profiting from doing such simple procedure.
Maxim #3
See no evil. Hear no evil. Talk no evil.
See no evil.
Avoid chart hallucination. If it’s not happening on the screen, don’t start imagining it. Whatever you are imagining is not real. What is on your chart, is. I have written above that this system isn’t creativity friendly – because creativity in trading does not bring home profit. Leave creativity to the artists. We’ll buy the final products from them with our trading profit.
Hear no evil.
Do not believe what anyone says. Markets dont move to prove them right.
The market just moves. You will, should, and must react to the market not to what some analysts or brokers tell you. This system is constructed to enable YOU to trade – not to listen to anyone else. Trade the market when the system has convinced you that it is heading that way. You are supposed to be trading your plan and confirm it to what you see, but not to other people’s words. After all, we all get the same charts!
Talk no evil.
Do not say things that will influence the way we think. Never brag around about your trading position. Don’t even try to think about doing it. Neuro-linguistic programming (NLP) studies prove that what we think and say may/will effect our emotional state – especially when our subconscious feels that we are staking our word/reputation on it. Never bet on anything or with anyone. What we say can and will stir our emotions. Do not let it get to you. Pride, greed, and fear will paralyze us from making our best moves – which is simply to follow the market.
We are not here to be proven right or compete against our trading opponents; as we have no opponent or competitor. We are and were never against ‘them’. We are here to find profit. We are in this industry for the ride. We have no enemy and avoid having one at all cost. Remember, when we make money, most of the other traders suffer. We are simply trying not to be one of them. No need to prove you are right or wrong. Let the market come and prove it to you. Just play along with the direction of the market and you will be just fine.
· Trading Operation
The execution/operational level of the whole MojoPivot concept is as simple as its fundamental maxims. We look at the chart to get our plan for the day. We see where the market is and what it is doing, and then we react at the appropriate moment.
There are two things to watch in this phase. First, is the Pivot Zone, and second, is the Trendline.
A) Pivot Zone
The heart of the system is the PIVOT ZONE. The Pivot Zone is a concrete wall dividing the long/buy territory and the short/sell territory. It is set once at the beginning of the day and stands still for the rest of the day. Walls do not move. ABOVE it is the BUYing territory and we plan to BUY if the market trades there. BELOW it we plan to SELL because it is the SELLing territory. NEVER ARGUE with it. End of story.
The wall has thickness to accommodate possible market volatility for that day. This thickness is adjusted automatically to the latest market range. The Zone’s thickness also enables us to see movement better as the market’s range needs to be evaluated by comparison/relativity, not by exact precision. It should be able to keep us away from early baldness due to seeing the price dancing in and out of a razor thin line instead of a thick Zone.
I have also designed the day’s bias to be built into the color of the Pivot Zone. A RED-colored zone means that the day has DOWNward bias (analogy: red = fire = hell = down) and GREEN-colored zone means it is UPward biased.
We prefer to go with the bias, as it tends to be statistically safer. However, all is fair in the embrace of the Pivot Zone. You may do anything as long as you do not do the wrong action in the wrong side of the Zone.
Watch price close outside of the Pivot Zone. It is much preferred to go with the bias as it tends to be statistically safer. –GBPUSD 15M.
Please do not get creative. This system is not meant for much creativity, and I learned that creativity and curiosity kills our trades. Stick to common sense. We want to buy because the price is going up, and we want to sell because it is going down.
B) Trendline
Enter the TRENDLINE. The Trendline also define the market’s mood. Trendline principles are NOT AS ABSOLUTE as the Pivot Zone’s. However, it does a great job of warning us of possibilities when dangerous movements are starting to develop.
What we look for first in the trendline is the angle of slope. The slope’s angle tells us the current trend. If sloping up, the trend is UP – even when the price may go down temporarily. If sloping down, then the trend is DOWN. The gradual trendline slope change will determine if the trend is changing – and trend does not change in only a day.
Secondly, we need to see where the price is in relation to the Trendline and the Pivot Zone. If it is BELOW Trendline, it is preferable to SELL. If it is ABOVE, we prefer to BUY. If the price is in between the Pivot Zone and Trendline, it is in no-man’s land. In this area, the Pivot Zone still holds the final word. Anything can happen. Going against the is very risky but valid if the Zone is on your back. If you’re disciplined and slightly paranoid, then just stay out. Get yourself focused, mentally prepared and ready to act fast.
This is why we prefer to long if price is above the Trendline and Zone bias is up. Even if we had to exit in loss when price breaks below pivot, we recover it on the next boom up using a buystop order right on top of Pivot Zone. – GBPCHF 15M
Third thing we need to notice is how far the Trendline is from the Pivot Zone. If it is too far away, price may cross the pivot to touch it then run back to the trend’s direction – as the trend is still in effect. If the Trendline is extremely close or even starts to slice through the Pivot Zone, market may break through it and we need to be cautious to see if a trend reversal will happen in the next few days – usually with a whippy season to follow.
Remember that however you use the Trendline, the Pivot Zone holds the final decision.
Let the market prove it at the Zone. Never assume anything. Believe only in what you see.
Notice when a retracement happens, the Trendline is still quite distant from the Pivot Zone . It is OK to countertrend at this point and go long as Pivot Zone confirmed that for that day alone, direction is up while trend is still down. – EURJPY 15M.
Notice that whips are bigger and more frequent as the Trendline gets very close to pivot. But it helps when we have adirection to lookout for. All we have to decide now is to enter or not. – EURJPY 15M.
C) Stoploss
The most important element of a trading plan is the stoploss. For me, the stoploss and exit are two different things. I think stoplosses are made for contingency reason, not for exit. Exit is made when market has proven to go to the opposite direction of our plan.
The Stoploss is made available to prevent uncontrollable damage from unanticipated move. Stoplosses should be effective when market blasted through the wall while we’re not around the trading computer – hence the term being ‘stopped out’. A stoploss should allow breathing space for the market to dance in its place, perhaps step on our feet occasionally, but never out of our dance floor. I still believe that our trades should be monitored periodically especially when it has not moved a significant distance from our Pivot Zone – just incase we need to exit before it hits our stoploss.
Where should the Stoploss be placed? A stoploss is on the opposite side of price breakout side of the zone. Experience taught me that it should be placed at least 30-40 pips away from the Zone’s extreme where it breaks.
The whole Pivot Zone system is based on having an extreme limit for holding a directional view of the market. What that means is that if the market fails to go our way, it should go the other way. It also means that we should not hold onto our current view & position after a certain point is breached. After this limit has been broken we may, however, choose either (a) to close our previous position and wait until market returns to our previous direction, or, (b) to reverse and follow the market.
Placement of the stoploss is done on the opposite side of our Pivot Zone trade direction. Here, a sell order uses stoploss 30 pips above the top of the Pivot Zone. - AUDUSD 15M.
D) Exit
Exits can be divided into two conditions:
1. Exit when the direction has changed – regardless of profit or loss,
2. Exit when we think that market cannot go any further (and we have enough profit)
The concept of exiting a trade is different from stoploss. If we enter when market broke out from one side of the Pivot Zone, and then it reverses/u-turns past the point of entry, and breaks out of the opposite side of the Zone entry, it tells us that the direction has changed. This is when we need to consider exiting our position and go to the next plan.
The MojoPivot System is designed to follow the market. Consequently, you should be able to see significant 10-30 pips profit most of the time before market decides to swing again. So exit #2 is really based on your personal judgment – even though I think it is dangerous to go for 10-30 pips grab as our stoploss ranges from 30-40 pips. It is simply unhealthy trading – like gambling while knowing the odds are against us. However, it is acceptable under ranging market circumstances and you are just looking for a quick pip for the day/week. Just remember, we are looking for the big home run, which is 3-digit movement profit on 2-digit risk. If the market significantly moves, we’ll be riding on it.
The MojoPivot System is also made to keep you from being dragged by the market going in the wrong direction temporarily (although the trend is still in play). That is why exit #1 is much more important. When you see a possible change in direction, confirm it, and then react quickly by exiting (or perhaps reversing) – preferably on profit or breakeven.
With this system, we can be on strict sit-n-wait bias/trend-following discipline or make some extra money on significant retracement. The difference is really what you do after you exit in loss of directional change – wait until the Market returns to the previously anticipated direction, OR reverse and reenter to cover the previous loss.
If you’re a spectacularly swingin’ speculator you reverse at the direction change. If not then sit back, relax, and wait until market dives or immediately place a sell stoporder around 0.7875 with SL 0.7907 and go to sleep. – AUDUSD 15M
Loosen up: Floating Exit thresholds
Trading rules are meant to be bent – not broken. I realize that the thickness of the zone is far from perfect at this point but it does accommodate the most market consolidation/distribution swing and (most importantly) psychological need of visualizing a buffer zone.
We cannot be too rigid/precise in this industry, hence the need of a zone to define bounce/breakout easily. If we could do that, we would not need to trade manually and be able to leave it to the computers. However, should we need to bend the rules, I believe we should do it mathematically.
Enter the Floating Exit thresholds. The basic rule remains: the Pivot Zone is a wall to determine the direction and we place the stoploss on the opposite side of the trade direction. As the Pivot Zone upper and lower bounds are static like a concrete wall, I have created a pair of floating boundaries that adjust to the current market volatility. The upper and lower extremes will expand and contract to the market’s swing range.
In the event where you need more room for the market range before you decide to exit, use the Floating Exit thresholds. If the market clearly closes beyond the opposite Pivot Zone boundary and beyond the Floating Exit, it’s exit time. Afterward, we may choose to either reverse or wait until market u-turn back into pivot-biased direction and re-enter.
In this scenario where the price spikes down below the Pivot Zone, it failed to close significantly outside of the Floating Exit threshold. We may choose to hold on to our position instead of closing it as direction is not legally broken. – GBPJPY 15M
E) Entry
I do not believe anybody can pick tops or bottoms precisely most the time. Nobody is perfect. Therefore, I am not too fussy about your entry technique. You may use a direct market entry or stoporder. You can wait until it breaks a range or make an early entry while price is still inside the zone heading to the biased direction. You may choose anytime to enter as you don’t go long in the sell territory or go short in the buy territory. The entry methods can be divided into 2 types: Single position (for the precision junkie) and multiple positions averaging (for the loose & relaxed). However and wherever we enter, it is MUCH MORE IMPORTANT to have the right stoploss than to be perfect in entry. My personal philosophy is that the best sanctuary lies closest to the tip of the enemy’s spearhead. So, the BEST, CHEAPEST, and SAFEST entry should be done CLOSEST to the PIVOTZONE boundary where directional change happens.
a. Single-shot entry
If you want to spend the whole day looking at the chart, feel free to hunt, aim, and shoot one full size position for that day. For this purpose, we can use any trigger method we like – for example ASCTrend, ADX crossing, RSI/MACD sync, stochastic, parabolic SAR, etc. or even just when the price line breaks or bends to the direction of our plan. Choose one - I don’t care. Validate all these signals with where the market is related to the Pivot Zone.
We should only look for long trigger signals if above and vice versa if below.
The advantage of single-shot entry is that it is much easier to manage, especially when we are monitoring several markets. The downside is when market retraces from our entry, we will need to bite our losses and sit on our hands (perhaps pray, on some occasions) as long as it does not break the pivot. I only rely on price movement and have included my Hook Breakout indicator to serve as a reliable trigger (unless we have a whip that expands the range – in which case it will be the last indicator that fails.
We can stalk our prey since when new Pivot Zone for the day starts, and enter at the X mark (breakout close), or where it is closest to the pivot (even though the color of the bar is still red). – USDJPY 15m
b. Multiple entries
However if you are looking to avoid heart problem and have more tolerance for imprecision, try dividing your full/standard entry size into several pieces – just incase we do not feel or prove to be unlucky that particular day. This entry is more relaxing and gives us an opportunity to average our total exposure to a better position – although managing multiple positions can be a handful if we trade more than one market.
Multi-entries can be done in several ways. Constant-size or pyramid, on intervals or free placement, but what is important is that they all carry the same stoploss point or are exited at the same time & price.
By entering a first 1/3 position around 104.70 and add-on 2/3 around 104.55, we would have an effective average position around 104.60. Both of them are stoplossed around 104.15. We can even add an additional 1/3 when the price retraces down and showed failure sign on the close of the hammer candlestick. – USDJPY 15m
Risk calculator
I have coded an automatic risk calculator in the later version of the Pivot Zone indicator to tell your market entry risk from the opposite side of Pivot Zone and relevant Floating Exit threshold – displayed at upper left corner of the chart as “Entry risk = XX / YY”. XX stands for risk (in pips) from the Zone’s opposite trade boundary. YY denotes risk from the Floating Exit line. It should be safe for entry when both numbers are below 30 as our risk/reward will be in healthy proportion.
If you are thinking of entering when it’s already near 50-60 pips, reduce your position by half because you are late. Beyond that, the position carries too much risk as the risk reward now reduced to less than 1:2. Under these conditions, if you are still confident with the market and planning to enter, you should reduce your position size with regard to your distance from the stoploss. For example: if we enter 10K position on 30 pips risk, when the risk doubles to 60 pips, we should cut the size in half or one-third and enter no more than 5K.
F) Trailing & adding
Ideally, trailing should be done by shifting the stoploss to the next day’s stoploss. For example, if on Monday we entered long and placed stoploss under Monday’s Pivot Zone and price remained above it until Tuesday, we maintain that position with stoploss shifted to under Tuesday’s Pivot Zone.
For the intraday junkie, we may trail the stoploss 50-70 pips behind the last high/low broken by the market to the direction of profit. We can also use the bar hook indicator to exit once the market makes its homerun – just wait until the color of the bar changes to oppose our direction. Personally, I find that in a stable market, price shouldn’t return to Pivot Zone after it has gone 50-70 pips from pivot. So when I see 40-50 pips profit, I tend to set my stoploss to entry (break even).
Trailing & adding positions happen to be the critical part of trading. Trend is said to be rare – accounting for only 30% of the market. When we happen to be in one, TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE of it – because this is the ONLY time we can be certain of market direction.
How do we take advantage? By leveraging our position and starting to push our margin to the roof! It is the safest moment in trading to do that. Why? Because we will have the insurance of profit from our previous position to cover possible minor retracement loss – and when it does goes to the trending direction we will be going for a huge home run.
FYI, the risk/reward ratio in this season is about 1:10. Without adding up, it should mend any unrecovered loss during whipping season. With adding up, it will do that and have more than enough left to fatten up your account.
Dancing with the market
What we have learned in the Trading Operation chapter are the basic steps of the MojoPivot method. Figuratively, you should be able to walk or sometimes even run with the market using them. It is enough for us to advance in profit, but that alone can hardly be called mastering the trading art. In this chapter, we will be learning to dance with the market. If you can handle this, you can start to dance and avoid being stepped on by the market too often.
On top of the basic objects on screen, I have added several more objects to keep us on guard. These objects will be displayed and valid only for the current day and serve as a guide along with the pivot. Without them, we will not be powerless, but it would be much nicer if we have some help along the way.
The topics covered are as follow:
· Pushing the stats
· Daily high & low
· Floating pivot
· Bounce spots
· Pivot swing
· Synchro trading
· Trading above the noise
· Reversing
· Alert system
Pushing the stats
I believe that proper trading is based on proper pushing of statistics. You should be in the best market season as long as possible and you should stay away from worse market season when you are in one. If you really have to trade it, then know when to let it roll and when to grab your profit when you see it.
The ideal condition for trading is when everything aligns together in the same direction. Even in perfect alignment things can still go wrong – but by filtering, we are increasing the probability statistics to profit. For this purpose, I have listed below the order of signal priority.
1 Pivot Zone - PZ**
· Price is trading in the proper side of the Zone.
· Above for buy/long. Below for sell/short.
2 Trendline - TL*
· Pivot Zone is drawn in the proper side of the Trendline (preferably on first day PZ crosing to the opposite side of the TL)
· Price is at the proper side of the Trendline and the PivotZone
3 Trigger
· Trigger signal is seen to match the directional bias from PZ (& TL).
4 Pivot Zone color
· Lime for buy/long. Red for sell/short.
** Non-negotiable
* Seasonal filter (not fatal, but critical)
Daily high & low
The basic mechanism of market movement is actually breaking of highs and lows. An uptrend is a continuing higher highs and higher lows and downtrend is consisted of lower highs and even lower lows. I figured since everybody is eyeballing daily highs and lows, I have hardcoded it into the indicator set to display yesterday’s high & low area. A sustained trending move should easily break one of these points. However, again I would rather advise you not to buy on highs and sell on lows, as it would prove to be too risky toward our stoploss. The closer we are to our Pivot Zone and stoploss, the better is our chance of survival and even more profit for us to reap.
When the market is ranging, it is usually incapable of closing outside yesterday’s high/low zone – resulting in a triangle or diamond breakout. Still, we need to stick to the Pivot Zone principle as I find these patterns can be hard to interpret – let alone if spikes happen to ruin the precision for shapes to be drawn correctly.
Watch yesterday’s high and low to see if market is facing a tough support/resistance there. It usually happens on whippy season or when the Trendline is almost flat. We may want to exit early in profit. On the other hand, if we see a solid break, u might want to leave the position to roll into the next day.
The advantage of having the daily high/low as guides and check against the Trendline is that we can actually be on alert for seasonal/trend changes and monitor the change from day to day.
Floating pivot
The Floating Pivot is intended to find the current day’s directional balance price based from the start of current day. It will show if the current market price is trading inside buy or sell cumulative daytrading range. The floating Pivot is especially useful for days when market whips and you would like to know if the temporary directional balance for that day’s range has been violated or not. It can also be used for reentry or adding position.
If market price is above the Floating Pivot, it is moving within the BUY side for the day and the color of the Floating Pivot will be GREEN. If it is painted RED, it means that market is below the balance and it is currently going DOWN.
We already entered 2 long positions:
1. at the beginning of the day and
2. when the market dipped slightly and bounced up.
After that market retraced quite significantly breaching the current day pivotal balance (temporarily turning it to red), then finally closes above. We enter number 3 after seeing the close above Floating Pivot.
Pivot swing
Pivot Zones can also be interpreted in a slightly different way. It is extremely difficult to spot trend change at intraday levels as the trend is composed of more than one day’s movement. On downtrend, price spends more time below the Zone than above. The opposite happens on an uptrend – the price hovers more above the Zone than below.
Take caution when price starts to swing against the Zone and against the trend for more than a day – usually the movement composition will change as well (range bigger on the pivot side opposite of trend). These signs can mean two things: longer retracement or possible seasonal change.
Just like in nature, you cannot determine the end of season precisely in one day. You will notice that the sun shines less frequently and rain starts to pour more often as fall comes to replace summer. When it starts raining, we sell raincoats and when the sun is shining, we open the lemonade stand. We can make money in the time it takes for a sunny sky to turn into rainy cloud – from the day-to-day difference between Pivot Zone levels.
Regardless of the season, you can short when it starts raining or go long when sun starts to shine – right when market price crosses the Pivot Zone to the corresponding direction.
Doing things in the proper season, of course, is much more pleasant. Just like selling cold drinks on hot sweaty days is almost like continuous flow of free money. The market is moving on its own rhythm & music. If we can follow the market swing-to-swing, then we can finally start dancing with it.
Notice how the price starts to shift from spending most of the time under ( < ) the Pivot Zone, then starts to break above it and spend most of the day above the Zone. – USDCHF 1H
Synchro trading
Synchro (synchronized) trading is using convergence of signals from majors and yen crosses to trade. The basic principles are that Yen crosses influence the majors (major currency pairs) and USDJPY controls the floodgate for USD strength. Simply put, the conditions for this scenario are as follow:
· It is always USD against the rest of the world. CHF is EUR’s mirror twin. GBP is EUR’s best friend. AUD is GBP’s little brother. CAD and JPY are a couple of strangers but they give off future hints to USD’s well being.
· When USD gets beaten up by EUR, GBP, CHF, CAD, and AUD, and all are heading to the same direction to beat USD, then go short on USD (means buy on EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and sell on USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY). When the USD prevails on all majors then go long USD.
· The USD will not fall too far on majors until it is showing weakness in USDJPY pair.
· When USD is going bull, USDJPY should go separate (usually opposite) way of its cousins – EURJPY & GBPJPY.
· When EURJPY and GBPJPY rise, it should drag EURUSD and GBPUSD up with them and vice versa.
When we spot that majors are on the same side of the Pivot Zone as their yen crosses and all moving to the same direction either USD bull or bear, go for the kill in that direction. This is our second chance (beside trending season) to push the leverage and margin to the roof as it only happens as rare as trending season. With the Pivot Zone in our hand, we can easily monitor eight markets as we only need to see (a) where it is in relation to the Pivot Zone (above or below) and (b) when the movement trigger is pulled.
AUD, GBP, EUR, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY under pivot, price started to dive. CAD & CHF above, while JPY just made it above.
Bounce spots
I have hard-coded a couple of simple high-probability bounce levels marked by small crosshair/target for you to watch and use. They have proven to be quite accurate in most past cases and I trust that you can use it to enhance your analysis or entry/exit decision.
It is said that if price comes to one of the two crosshair spot levels and bounces, it usually continue the rest of the day moving away from the first spot. These two price levels may help you define movement for the day and perhaps be used to add position or exit target on profit.
Personally, I like to go with the simpler one to keep me relaxed and have my screen (and my head) neat & clean. If you prefer the more complex support and resistance area, switch the SimpleSR switch to “false” in the MP-PZ indicator setting. It will highlight six major areas in the price chart for that particular day. If the third outer support/resistance is broken, we have a strong trend.
Trading above the noise
Behold, the Weekly Pivot. It is the meanest support/resistance ever! If you have a day job and could not watch the market 12-18 hours a day, then use it to trade. To monitor the trade, just memorize the top & bottom of the new zone and check the current price from every 6 to 8 hours against them.
Use the Pivot Zone or yesterday’s High/Low near the Weekly Pivot and combine them to make yourself a thicker zone. Use the Pivot Zone principle. Enter your position on one side, stoploss on the other side, and monitor your position every day before/after the New York session. Of course you will need to handle bigger swing than daily, but hey – it’s more relaxing. All you need to do is play your leveraging and money management correctly to accommodate the bigger swing range. Do not get tricked into taking small profits unworthy of your stoploss risk. The higher you fly the safer you are from making more frequent mistakes.
The whole trick here is not to be trapped into intraday whipping session, by looking at the bigger picture. When the bigger picture changes, we wont be left behind as we are looking at it in the microscopic level (15M) but using a large tool to evaluate its movement. Use my hook break on higher timeframe – wait in the lower timeframe until market shows signs of returning to the higher timeframe’s trend. Play your movement timeframe against your reaction timing correctly and you should prosper.
You can also combine my Pivot Zone with higher timeframe technical analysis (top/bottom line connecting) or check against my Hook Break on Daily chart. Just make sure that whatever you think may happen, let the Pivot Zone take the final judgment and act after you see the movement – NOT before!
Combining newly formed day low with Weekly Pivot as price breaks topside of the new High-Fly Zone.
Reversing
The most difficult thing you may do with this system is reversing. This part of the document is not for people who are not familiar with the market swing.
Reversing is extremely risky – but it is not impossible to be done. The advantage of reversing is the possibility to directly recover from a misdirectional loss and/or catch an early move. However, most of the time we’re doing this we will be venturing into hazardous territory.
Keep in mind that reversing cannot be done all the time. To help you recognize the preferable market conditions to reverse, I have listed below the three primary situations where you may want to consider taking the risk.
1) No new yesterday or daily high/low has been broken.
In this scenario, it usually noticeable that the market is not moving in a strong extended range & it is also having a hardtime to maintain its latest movement (usually signaled by a deep retracement of usually more than 60%). In other cases, watch out when yesterday’s high/low is barely broken and market reverses instead of stabilized by going further away from the PivotZone. Be very suspicious when this condition happens!
This particular market’s move is complex but easily recognized. We need to analyze it by noticing (1) no new highs for 2 days, (2) PivotZone did not move significantly = sign of no movement to the last direction (up), and (3) it’s been trying to cross the PZ for the last 2 days.
2) Market found support/resistance to sustain the reversal move after slowly crossing Pivot Zone.
You may notice that market formed a hump/bounce outside the PivotZone pointing/heading to the new direction. The market usually tends to open very close to the PivotZone and starts crossing it very early during the new PivotZone day.
On a slow move like the one above, it’s much better to wait until market found support outside and above the Pivot Zone before we reverse into long position and counter the Trendline.
3) Unusually sudden, large and strong reversal bar that engulfs the current day's overall movement.
This is probably the MOST DANGEROUS moment to reverse - usually happens on much anticipated news release.
Notice that the 2005.04.12 14.30 bar engulf the whole day’s range. We exit and reverse into short on the bottom breakout of the PivotZone.
Alert system
Honestly, I do not like or enjoy to stare at my charts. However, I realize that the market still needs to be monitored. For this purpose, I have programmed a speech alert system into the MojoPivot System to give you clear and audible warnings on significant market movements and the currency pair where it is happening.
With the speech alert, I personally find my productivity hours increased (especially in doing something else than trading). I can read books, take a nap, or even watch DVDs while trading. All I do is take a good look at the market once at the beginning of new PivotZone.
In addition to the speech alert, I have also equipped the alert system with email option that is disabled by default. If you are mobile and would like to be alerted on your preferred condition, just enable it and you may have the alert emailed to you where you can check via your cellular phone.
Five | Final notes
Achilles’ heel
Every time you evaluate any system – including mine, the first question to ask is where or when does it fail. The MojoPivot System fails when the market does not move. What I mean by no movement is huge spike ranges – big enough to strike your stoplosses, but not stable enough to provide support for the next market swing. On the other hand, in small ranges, it should prevail to keep you out of trouble. These kinds of movement usually happen during largely anticipated news, such as NFP, GDP, or FOMC rate.
In this kind of scenario, you can always either:
1. close all your positions before news, or
2. loosen your stoplosses, perhaps to yesterday’s Pivot Zone or top/bottom of range and sit back to watch the game unfolds and probably find some slacks to add positions, or
3. squeeze your stoploss real tight after a sudden profitable news boost (which probably will end up with slightly less profit than #1’s close).
So far, I have never met a person who can catch these (occasionally split-second) 100 pips boom or found other system that also can take advantage of the nasty spikes with successful statistics (especially when spread and slippage swells). In the end, I noticed in most of the past charts that the trend prevailed again – at least for the remainder of that day alone and regardless it got broken on the next day or not. Anyway, if you know anyone who can, do not hesitate to email me. I would sure like to know his/her technique.
MojoPivot’s Achilles’ Heel. Trendline is getting closer to the Pivot Zone since the 27th. Whippy season comes with multiple tsunamis. If you are a big wave rider, you just might be able survive this using hit-n-run PivotZone breakout and quick trailing & takeprofit – you may even escape with only a few bruises along with your trophy. – GBPJPY 15M.
There is really no need to worry when these spikes happen. First, the System is a trend/movement following system. In most cases, you should see profit first before the market turns around. Secondly, The MojoPivot System has a healthy risk/reward ratio so we are trading with the odds on our side. Give it a little time, and you will end up winning after a temporary ranging season. Third, Trendline and Pivot Zone already have a built-in early warning system for a possible whip season – as I have written above. Just bring your concentration to the market and react properly.
If you religiously follow the market movement and check it against the pivot, you will have a direction at all times. If you feel like swinging, then reverse and follow it. If you’re slightly paranoid, then stay out and wait until trend resumes and everything is in sync. You choose. Even when you are confused, there is always the previous day’s pivot and high/low points to benchmark against. When whips and spikes take you out more than twice a day, the market is too emotional. Take the rest of the day off, get some rest, go outside or watch a movie. Give it another day and you should recover and be back in profit right away.
Maximum profit
Honestly, I do not really like to talk about how much profit the MojoPivot System can generate you. I would rather talk about it’s weakness or how it can survive the whips using reverse stop order technique on chart page 11. If you really like to know the maximum profit scenario that we’re looking for, apply the Pivot Zone indicator to a 1H chart and see for yourself – the Trailing & Adding section on page 15 is a small sample for only a week. Remember trend may run for MONTHS! Q4 2004 on EURUSD should get you millions. If the market moves, we will profit. It is only a matter of discipline and willpower to let the profit run and add up on your market position exposure carefully. Work on that, and you will get the biggest pip harvest of your life.
Trading handicap
Nowadays I find the hardest part in trading is not in cutting my losses early anymore. It is much more excruciating to let your profit runs until the trend runs out while adding up positions in the process. I think it is our (ironically) self-sabotaging fear-driven survivalist nature that keeps us from trusting that the future will run on its own course and there’s really nothing we can do or foretell. This results in grabbing our profit before it has a chance to mature, instead of letting things grow and monitor it from a distance.
Gossips, rumors, news & market direction
Trend and market direction is predetermined before news. On my personal observation, nearly all news breakouts (especially big ones) since 2003 began with false breaks - some as large as 60-80 pips. No one can predict whether where it is going to start and where it’s going to end. We can only wait for it to settle down or enter on our original view until it gets broken.
The market knows where it wants to go and it evolves. It just needs to figure out how to swing it properly to get there/anywhere. News results does not prove anything, unless it is something catastrophic (which includes nuclear bombing and governmental assassination). Even when that happens, all the information you need is right under your nose. If the chart dives, you sell. If it skyrockets up, you buy. If we are anticipating some counter-trend moves, do it when it has proven its strength – right at the Pivot Zone.
Oh, by the way, do not read the news, just know when they are going to be released and figure out if it is big enough for you to prepare your nerve/guts for a huge swing session.
If in doubt, best thing is to wait an hour after the news release; until market shows it is
true direction.
Trust what you see
I cannot stress enough for you to trust your chart and maintain your emotional composure at all times. Trading is a mental game. The booms and busts of the market are moved by emotions as market makers and operators provide the swings to lure 90% of market participants to surrender to the profiteers. Market is amazingly obvious from a distance. It is being caught in the intraday noise that is devastating.
Beyond this point, you are on your own. I may be able to help you to know what I think or understand my perspective on certain market cases, but all the tools you need is really right in your own computer screen. You see the same chart as I do, using the same set of tools, and they are placed at the same price location – your screen or mine. It’s all there.
Just bring your 100% focus to trade, leave your emotions outside before you face the market, and relax. See, plan, react. You don’t need to work hard, you just need to stay calm. The harder you trade, the more loss you’ll embrace. MetaTrader has a built-in alert system. Just set it to alert you when price bid/ask crossed to the other side of the zone and go read a book, browse Internet, chat, or do something else.
As you may have read and learned so far, trading can be simple and sometimes enjoyable; especially when we can dance with the market. Keep your head cool, also your emotions and common sense in check. The rest are only moments of waiting to jump into profit.
Good luck and good trades to all.
Mojo Pivot System / Questions and answers
1.QUESTION
I understand that between the PZ and the TL it is no-man's land and shold not be touched. As a result I am staying out of these trades altogether, because they will lead to no-where and lot os whipsaws and losses.
However, I am looking at a few trades that showed up this morning on the USDJPY and the GBPJPY, and I could not understand why you took them.
My thinking (and the manual as well) is that the best Mojo trades are taken when prices go thourgh the PZ on the same side of the TL. This means go short when the PZ is below the TL and go long when prices go through the PZ above the TL. The trades this morning were taken when prices go thourgh the TL, even if the PZ was above the TL in both cases. Please provide some explanation.
Thanks
Jacques
ANSWER:
First thing you need to understand is that even in risky situations there are profitable opportunities. However, this high-risk operation is not for everyone.
Notice that since the early bars of the new day's PivotZone, market never traded below the floating pivot - even though it is below/inside the PivotZone. This is a very important sign that the market is constantly and consistently moving on an upward bias - expanding the day's top range without returning to the bottom range. This also translates to possible temporary reversal scenario - we can also conclude that at that moment, market is not going to the bigger force's direction.
With enough distance between the PZ and TrendLine, you can have your profit target at the R1, upper bounce spot, or when price touches the TrendLine. Just remember everytime you counter the Trendline: Grab your profit when you see it! The movement will not last long as the Trendline will almost certainly returns the market to it's original/starting price.
Doing reversal is very dangerous. As it tends to pollute your mind from seeing the 'real' direction of the market. Especially when you are caught in whips. So it's not definitely NOT FOR EVERYONE. Personally, I would suggest you to remain conservative and wait - especially when TL is very close to PZ (whip season). This is due to the market not moving significantly for us to trade safely and the whole point of the MojoPivot system is to understand and realize the risk that you are taking in each trade as the only thing certain in trading is risk and not profit/or movement.
Hope that helps. Good luck & good trades!
2.QUESTION
My question is about the entry risk numbers, what does this mean and how do you read them?
I still can not figure out the Entry Risk. Right now the numbers for the EUR is 40/45. What does this mean and how do you use this to help you trade?
Thanks again. I am now getting about 30 to 50 pips on 2 lots, I get out too early but happy with the gains as it has been consistent. And Mojo has keep me out of several trades that would have cost me. So I am very happy about that.
Take care,
Lloyd Alcones
ANSWER:
Ok. Look up the manual for the Floating Exit thresholds. As you may realize by now, I place the risk of all trades in the other side of the PivotZone - where if market turns around and crosses to that point, we decide that the market just isn't going our way. The first (left) number of the Entry Risk is actually the distance between current price to the PivotZone boundary I mentioned above. The second (right) number is the distance from current price to the Floating Exit (if u need more space beyond the PZ bound). On short position, we use the upper FExit line and on long we use the lower FExit line. I place the numbers on the chart to know at all time the amount of pip risk I take when I enter at that moment, and size my position to tolerate that risk.
I hope that clears your question.
It gives me great pleasure to know others find Mojo system works for their trading profile (and trading temperament). You will find out by yourself that the system is actually adaptable to more than one trading profile, for example the consistent daily profit like yourself and others may choose to stake out for days to hunt and ride the big pips. It all works out in the end - only a matter of flavor. Remember, there's nothing wrong with closing in profit. ;)
Good luck & good trades.
3.QUESTION
1) From the picture "Q1_mojo" - this is my interpretation, based on mojo rules :
Trendline : almost flat - trending slighly sidewards
Daily Bias: Red / downward
Since the price is above the trendline and the price is also above the pivotzone, it is a decent time to buy/hold the currency pair.. EUR/USD.
Also the green dots indicate that it would be good to go "Long"...
The red dots give an indicator to go short - why would someone have gone short on a trade like this ?
-----------------------------
2) using the picture "q2_usd_jpy" - this is my interpretation :
- trendline is well above the pivot and the price..price is between pivot and trendline - wait..as this is no mans' zone.. price also above floating pivot...
I see all the "red" sell signals and the "green" buy signals... but what if they are providing me with signals that may be different from mojo rules.. ?
thanks
damion.
ANSWER:
1) Q1_mojo picture
You may go long, but the what's been going on for the last 24-48 hours should give you a good clue. First thing you should know and notice is that market is turning. We get these hints from what's happening to the Trendline (gradually flattening) and the color & swing of the PZone. When market turns, it's going to be a double-header. Also, market has been moving lower for 2 days with the PZones gone lower as well AND PZone has crossed over the Trendline. The only thing that hasn't crossed is the price! Notice as well that so far in your picture, market has problem trading above the floating pivot - so it has a strength issue in moving up. Be mentally prepared for some PZone crossing.
Taking short should be done when market has been proven to go down crossing the PZone. Note that this is a VERY RISKY trade as it will get you very tensed. The fact that your long gets stopped out will get u emotionally triggered. Market usually bounces back on this kind of 1st crossing day moves, so better to take profit when u see it - at least to recover your loss and perhaps gain thin profit.
2) Q2_usd_jpy picture
The situation is basically self-explanatory. Market is under the heavy influence to go further down but trapped in NML and has proven since the beginning of the day to trade above the floating pivot with no intention to move down yet. Even worse, it crosses the PZone (thus cancelling your short triggers) and into NML.
What does this means? It means at that time, market is not moving down (even though the big bias is down). NML = uncertainty = not good = bigger risk. Your choice: trade it or wait for it.
However, I didnt say there's no opportunity in risky situations - but it's just might not be for everyone. There is no such thing as 'different mojo rules'. There is only market that is 'not ready' to move yet - and frankly, you cant tell the market what to do. All we have to do is trade the moment or wait. When it moves, it's going to be right there visible on screen as a fact - and we should be carried along with it. On these days, plenty of people turned blind in making a difference between current and biased market direction and seems to do things at the worst timing possible. Ironically, sometimes market consistently moves ppposite of what they pictured in their head and they keep denying the fact. The system clears this problem for you and lets u deal with 2 things: the fact and your risk.
The more factors that you are going against, puts you in a bigger risk.
It's that simple. The objective of the system is to have you realize how much risk you are getting yourself into and how you can actually manage those - mentally and in your trading decision. Some people will speculate to reverse and some would prefer to pass the opportunity for better/safer ones. Both can be done under the proper circumstances but on different risk levels. The boundary area to do those actions is quite clear. When in doubt, dont trade. If you cannot identify your risk, you will be blinded from knowing where your profit exists.
4.QUESTION
How much i can made monthly by using mojo system if i use 1% of my account for one currency trading 4 of majors?
Tony
ANSWER:
From 5.3% to 17.6%
5.QUESTION
I see there is a dotted red and green line, which apparently marks turning points or max/min levels. Is this correct? How can I make use of them as far as trading goes
Also, in the manual, it talks about monitoring JPY crosses as reference and when all the crosses go alongside, then super-leverage your account cause the market is clearly trending what is the principle behind that?
Last one for now: how come the weekly pivot is lower than the week's highest peak?
Hector Y.
ANSWER:
1) Dotted red & green lines
If you're referring to the HBx, yes. They are true historical supports and resistances. Market strength & direction will be determined by breaking of those points. You may use them as places where you might add position (dont forget to size ur entry) or exit.
2) USDJPY watch
Synchro trading works on the principle that we are trading the US Dollar - whether it's bull or bear. It seems that Japan being probably the strongest economic force in the world so far influence how the USD is benchmarked against the Yen - if it's strong/weak enough to go against the JPY, it should be clearly visible on the major pairs as well. This is a personal observation which was taught to me by a fellow trader (the movement correlations were clearly noticeable 1-2 years ago when USDJPY was frequently intervened by the BoJ). I also find that market gets very messy/whippy when the trio JPY (GBPJPY,EURJPY,USDJPY) are moving to the same direction together - there is no clear direction of USD strength.
This method of correlation/synchronization trading is made easy just by monitoring where the market is in relation to the PivotZone and especially to the Floating Pivot. They all need to be aligned either at the USD side or anti-USD. So when I have 9 charts opened, all I have to do is take a quick one-second glance for each pair.
Do several weeks of observation n paper trade first, until you get a good grip on the phenomenon before trading it live. It's actually quite simple, but people tends to not trust this until they see it.
3) Weekly pivot
The weekly pivot can be wherever it wants to - depends on the calculation. Weekly pivot serves as an endorsement for market in the same principle of the PivotZone. If you trade against it, it may bounce the market real hard. If you trade with the Weekly Pivot on your back, we tend to easily find strong & sustained market movement.
Good luck & good trades.
6.QUESTION
NUMBER 1) That’s the PZ. I understand that no problem.
NUMBER 2) What is this new, wider sub-pivot zone? I can see that it can be either red or green and it encompasses the day’s trade range. What is its use? What does the colour change depend on?
NUMBER 3) I see there is a dotted red and green line, which apparently marks turning points or max/min levels. Is this correct? How can I make use of them as far as trading goes?
NUMBER 4) What is this small dotted line with a price inside the box?
NUMBER 5) and how about this larger, non-dotted pink line with a price inside a box too?
NUMBER 6? What does YR 110 mean? And what does “strength 1” mean?
Hector Y.
(picture attached at bottom in files section)
Hector Y.
ANSWER:
1) PZ. Correct.
2) That is the current day's range box from the PZx. The color of the range will change to wherever market trades at (at the upper or lower side of the day's range). The color will also intensify as the market breaks through strategic price levels - the more of these price levels behind you the stronger the color will be. You will also see the strength gauge increasing. The color simply shows how many price forces is on backing the market's current move. I personally use it to glance at my monitor from a distance to check the strength of market. Used properly, it can also track n detect slow n consistent reversal move.
3) Yes, they are historical support/resistance levels from HBx. On bear trends, price shouldnt break the red dotted line. On bull trends, price shouldnt break the green dotted lines. When those lines get tapped, market's directional view will change - HBx is an indicator that works on price strength market model.
4) That's yesterday's high n low. It's written in the manual.
5) That's the Weekly Pivot. Very strong support/resistance point. It's also in the manual.
6) YR = Yesterday's Range. Strength is a movement strength gauge ... runs from 0 to 3. 3 being 3 strong price levels are behind the current move. 0 means market still got none behind and 3 more strong price levels to pass / go against.
The advanced HB and PZ toolset can aid you in monitoring the market - specially made for people who likes precision and tightly monitors the market. However if it gets too overwhelming, just use the conventional ones (PZ & HB). HBx, however, is highly recommended as a 2nd opinion market trend generator, or as support/resistance seeker in a higher timeframe without having to leave the current chart's timeframe.
7.QUESTION
1) I have noticed that Mojo System is clear as far as entry
signals with an army of tools such as price position compared to PZ and TL,
HB indicator, floating pivot, color of PZ, etc. But I find myself a bit
helpless when it comes to trigger an exit as I feel that the system
does not offer strong assistance in this field, so I end up
outside-of-system tools such as Trail Stops or Fibs.
2) I have also noticed that Mojo System is razor-cunning during
trending market, but I have been incapable of profit from it during
sideway markets (chopping market). I simply get stopped out most of my
trades as the price swings back and forth from one side to other of the
PZ. And, if I widen the stop loss gap, then my money management
risk/reward rules go down the loo. How do you use Mojo during the chop Mario? Or
do you rely on another system such as pivots or channels in
non-trending markets?
Hector Y.
ANSWER:
1) There are 2 choices of exit: target it or trail - depends on your
trading personality. By target u can use the classic 6 points
support/resistance or use the yesterday's high low. By trailing, u can use the
floating pivot to ride the market movement safely, or just set at
breakeven when you see 40-50 pips profit and let it roll overnight. The
system's designed not to predict movement, so I personally endorse the
trailing method and try to ride the market's direction as long as we can.
2) First of all, you need to understand that choppy market is highly
unstable - no sense of pulling statistics from the whip. I strongly
recommend that you avoid choppy market at all cost. If you really need to
trade it (which I think you really don't), try the landmines trick. Find
a bias/trend from one of the MojoPivot's trend generators (preferably
the HBx), and wait until market goes opposite of that bias. Then you set
stoporders in it's path to the direction of the bias grabbing small
profits. It works on the principle that whippy market gets everybody
surprised. Rather than getting surprised when the market suddenly reverses
opposite of our direction, just hitchhike when it does reversals into
our direction. Dont be greedy. Grab the profit if you see it or squeeze
the trailing really tight then go do something else; especially when you
can close the day in profit. Note that you need the dealer to honor
your stoporder with minimal slippage.
But above all, it is best to stay away from whips. Playing blackjack
has better winning odds than trading the whipping days.
Good luck n good trades.
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