BoE Cuts Rates by 100bps, Signals Further Action As Credit Conditions Remain Difficul

The Bank of England cut their benchmark rate by 100 bps as was expected by economist bringing it to 2.00%. The Pound traded higher on the news reversing earlier losses as traders started to expect a more aggressive move given the dour fundamental data that has recently crossed the wires.

Talking Points
• Japanese Yen: Finds Support at 92.50
• Pound: BoE Cuts Rates By 100 bps
• Euro: Rate Decision Ahead
• US Dollar: Jabs Data On Tap

BoE Cuts Rates by 100bps As Expected But Signal More Action To Come As Credit Conditions Remain Difficult.

The Bank of England cut their benchmark rate by 100 bps as was expected by economist bringing it to 2.00%. The Pound traded higher on the news reversing earlier losses as traders started to expect a more aggressive move given the dour fundamental data that has recently crossed the wires. The release of the HBOS home price indicator showed that values drop another 2.6% in November which sent the pound below 1.4500 for the first time in over six years. Credit conditions remain tight which has kept the housing market from bottoming which has forced the central bank to take more measures to provide liquidity to the market.

The BoE in its post announcement remarks stated that its “unlikely that normal lending volume restored without action” as “money, credit market conditions extremely difficult”. The central bank said the consumer spending and business investment has stalled which has dragged the economy into a recession. The MPC expects inflation is likely top drop further with the possibility of it falling below its 2% target very likely. The comments signal that the central bank is not done taking action and more easing is very likely in the near-term which could lead the pound lower as markets digest the comments.

The Euro traded heavy in early trading falling to as low as 1.2549 before finding support. The Riksbank unexpected 175 bps rate cut led to the Euro dropping as speculation increased that the ECB would cut rates deeper than expected at today’s rate decision. The Swedish bank wasn’t scheduled to make a policy decision until December 17th and the preemptive move demonstrates how dire the circumstances are in Europe. The ECB is expected to cut rates by 50 bps at 12:45 GMT, but the possibility of a deeper cut has significantly increased. Indeed, the second reading of GDP for the third quarter remained at -0.2% confirming the region’s economy is in a technical recession and the lower revision of household consumption demonstrates the lack of confidence by the consumer. A more aggressive move could sink the Euro below support at 1.2330, the October 28th low with 1.2000 a possibility. However, if the central bank meets expectations and President Trichet demonstrates no intention to deviate from the MPC’s measured approach then we could see a bullish reaction with a break above 1.3000 a possibility.

The majority of the event risk for the dollar may hinge on the markets interpretation of the actions from the European central banks. The continued easing could brighten the outlook for the global economy sparking risk appetite and leading to dollar weakness. However, employment data may dampen demand for risk as jobless claims are expected to remain above 500,000 for the fourth week in a row. U.S. factory orders are expected to have fallen 4.5% in October adding to the evidence the frozen credit markets brought manufacturing activity to a halt. Despite the fundamental data headlines that GM and Chrysler are considering pre-arranged bankruptcy could have a major impact on risk appetite. The potential impact on the U.S. economy of two of the three major U.S. automakers falling into bankruptcy could send traders to the sidelines. However, the potential resolution to Detroit’s troubles could bring relief to traders, who dislike the unknown and spark bullish sentiment.