06‏/01‏/2009

More Pain for Dollar in 2009 Q1, GBP Down, EUR Slowing Rally

US Dollar Bashing Continues
USD bashing continues after the Fed cut rates by 75 bps with the USD Index support at 79.88 easily giving way.
With no earth shattering economic data out of the US until the end of the year, the USD is likely to fall further as the currency is now the lowest yielding coupled with upcoming weak economic data in 2009.
With their monetary ammo almost running out, the Fed has turned to quantitative easing to provide liquidity, and the Fed’s plans to buy US Treasuries and mortgage-backed security (MBS) will also drive the USD lower.
Thus, more pain will be in store in Q1 for the USD.
GBP Continues Going Down, EUR Rally May Slow Down
GBP continues to suffer on poor economic data and forecast of more rate cuts after the BOE Minutes revealed Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) wanted to cut more than 100 bps. November retail sales forecast at -0.6% m/m (-0.1% previous) will not help the GBP's cause along with expected rise in Public Sector Net Borrowing (PSNB).
EUR rally may slow ahead of German December IFO survey of business sentiment forecast at 84 (85.8 previous) with expectations at 77.0 (77.6 previous) and current assessment at 90.8 (94.8 previous).

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  ©تصميم محمود جمال.