31‏/07‏/2009

31‏/07‏/2009

- Trading the Randomness -

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Trading the Randomness
My son started trading these last few weeks and has had some very surprising results. He determined that if he did 10,000 trades on a single currency pair that he would have a sort of mental understanding of the pair. So he loaded the 1 minute data started back testing his method. **Now when I say method, I mean that in the loosest of terms. He only trades bars between the hours of * PM and 10 PM, he then starts selecting buy and sell positions, taking profit at 2-10 pips. I don’t have the exact numbers in front of me but I’ll start posting them so you guys can follow him, but every night, after trading several of these time periods in a back environment he inevitably ends with a couple of hundred points.**As time goes by I analyze how he is doing and share the results with you. 10000 trades is lot but, at this point I am going to give him the benefit of the doubt

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Exploring a simple script

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Exploring a simple scriptI decided that I want to talk about something that I have been working on for the last year, and after attending a seminar over the weekend, I decided to just do it. Someone said something to me that really stuck. I am going to paraphrase it, but here it is. You can give people whatever they want and very few of them are going to use it or be satisfied with it.
So in that spirit, I am going to share a script that I worked on for better part of a year. It isn’t a wildly profitable script but it has a lot of elements in it that can be applied to many other scripts and will teach you a lot about scripting.I’ll post it here in its entirety, and then over the next few days I’ll break down each part so you can see what I did. I had some help with the script, and thank those that helped.The first thing I’ll talk about is the code in Red. I created this so that the variables in the list could be switched out and tested. In this script I tested a cross of two EMA’s for an open and a close condition. However if I wanted to test how a different MA cross would work I could simply switch out the EMA’s and WMA’s for a different MAThis allows me to make a lot of changes on the fly without screwing with the heart of the script. Here is the script with original EMA’s and WMA’s**

Here is a chart with a HMA substituted for the WMA’s.

//Adjust these Variables as neededBuyTakeProfit Point(100)SellTakeProfit Point(100)BuyStopLoss Point(100)SellStopLoss Point(100)Local ECA = EMA[0](Close, 1)Local ECB = WMA[0](Close, 3)Local XCA = EMA[0](Close, 10)Local XCB = WMA[0](Close, 34)
Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE
global int ii
global int hh
global lastBreakPrice
global lastBreakPriceBS //the lastBreakPrice with buy/sell action
global int buysellzone //-1 sell zone; 1 buy zone; replace getValue("4 hr. 40 day", issellposition)
//approximate 4 hour BB breakout
if (High[0]>= BLG_U[0](Close, 80, 2)) then
buysellzone=-1
lastBreakPrice=high[1]
endif
if (Low[0]<= BLG_L[0](Close, 80, 2)) then buysellzone=1 lastBreakPrice=low[1] endif //crossover if buysellzone=-1 and lastBreakPricelastBreakPriceBS and CrossDown(ECA , ECB) and ECA < lastbreakpricebs="lastBreakPrice" ii="ii+1" buysellzone="1"> BLG_L[0](Close, 80, 2)) then
AddBuyEntry
lastBreakPriceBS=lastBreakPrice
hh=hh+1
ENDIF
if isbuyposition then
addbuyexit BElOW = lastBreakPriceBS - Point(0))
endif
if issellposition then
addsellexit OVER = lastBreakPriceBS+ Point(0))
endif
if isbuyposition and
CrossDown( XCA, XCB) then
addbuyexit
endif
if issellposition and
CrossUp( XCA, XCB) then
addsellexit
endif

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Exploring a simple script(2)

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OK a few apologies are in order. When the script was posted yesterday, there were a few errors that found their way into the post. So today at the end of this post you will find a link to down load the file. It will be unlocked and fully accessible for changes.

Today I want to talk about the use of Global variables versus Local variables. This script uses 5 global variable to pass along information. The difference in the two variables is how long the information is held by the variable anf what has access to that information.

Local: Declares a local variable in the chart. These variables remain accessible only within the particular script. These variables can be assigned an initial value. This value is held only as long as the specified condition is true.

Global: Declares a global variable in the chart. These variables remain accessible from every IntelliScript that are attached to the same Data Series. These variables can be assigned an initial value. The value can be held as long as you wish.

For today’s discussion, I am going to explain the first two global variables, because the concept behind them is detailed enough to fill this post.

global int ii
global int hh

When we initially wanted to set up the script we needed a way to count the process that we were going through. This counting needed to be done for several reasons, none of which are used in the final iteration of the script but we left in so we could test other changes as well.
The original reason was to add contract names. Remember that you cannot have more than 1 trade open in one direction at a time. That is unless they have different names. Counting was a way to add a different name. After each addbuyentry/addsellentry you will see the following lines of code

hh=hh+1
ii=ii+1

This steps the value up 1 for every time the group is “true” and a new signal is created. We could then add:

Contract = “+ii+” or Contract = “+hh+” behind the addbuyentry or addsellentry and new positions in the same direction would be created with a contract name of a number. Now lest you think it’s all that easy, remember you would also have to exit each of those contracts too. For this reason we abandoned this strategy in favor of another but left it there in case we wanted it in the future.

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Exploring a simple Script

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In today’s blog I want to introduce one of the most important concepts in the script. The code goes like this.**//approximate 4 hour BB breakoutif (High[0]>= BLG_U[0](Close, 80, 2)) thenbuysellzone=-1lastBreakPrice=high[1]endifif (Low[0]<= BLG_L[0](Close, 80, 2)) thenbuysellzone=1lastBreakPrice=low[1]endifI feel it’s one of the most significant parts because it calls on those global variables we assigned earlier and allows you to hold a specific condition until another definable condition is meat regardless of what happed between. With most scripts, the whole statement is either true or false, but with these the condition can be false but as long as the second condition isn’t meet then you can keep a value assigned to the global variable. Here’s an example of what I am talking about. **Let’s say you wanted to buy if RSI, Slow K became oversold in the last 24 hours and the PSAR supports a long. In regular statements unless all three conditions were meet at exactly the same time the statement not evaluate as true. But using these tyope of stamen the value can be held true even if the three conditions happened independently of eachother , but were true sometime in the last 24 hours.Using this example, the following script produced absolutely no trades.**if RSI[0](Close, 14) <>

However, by creating a buy/sell zones you can handle this instance and find trades based on the criteria involved. **global rsif LLV(RSI[0](Close, 14), 24) < thenrs =" 1elsers" rs =" 1" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5364781958690959346" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 266px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWGdSKyHtWMiXLxrfd8oq0XPN0LWRlxJJgTJjmOTFa0w17J1sSvV4rVPskrcn-h9WmhUHZ_9W1HqxyhctoPfX4DHQYFucvxo42Id1u_s_gMXjsrr1qTE-h5_QeR1V7eR-oix1fkyoEaHw/s400/c2222.jpg" border="0">

In the Larger script, we wanted a buy/ sell zones if the 80 Bollinger Band was broken, meaning we were in overbought or oversold conditions, and then we wanted to move on to further considerations. Let’s see who can send me the sell side of this script first. If you are the first one and it executes in the reverse of the buy, then I ‘ll send you a set of scripts that use in my trading

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Exploring a simple script Final

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Ok here is the script as we ended it. The settings are still solid though we removed some of the fluff once we decided on the settings and the script was finalized.**
global int iiglobal int hhglobal lastBreakPriceglobal lastBreakPriceBS //the lastBreakPrice with buy/sell action global int buysellzone //-1 sell zone; 1 buy zone; replace getValue("4 hr. 40 day", issellposition)BuyTakeProfit Point(50)SellTakeProfit Point(50)//approximate 4 hour BB breakoutif (High[0]>= BLG_U[0](Close, 120, 3)) thenbuysellzone=-1lastBreakPrice=closeendifif (Low[0]<= BLG_L[0](Close, 120, 3)) thenbuysellzone=1lastBreakPrice=closeendif//crossoverif buysellzone=-1 and lastBreakPricelastBreakPriceBSand CrossDown( EMA[0](Close, 10) , WMA[0](Close, 34) ) thenAddSellEntry Contract = "Sell["+ii+"]"lastBreakPriceBS=lastBreakPriceii=ii+1ENDIF if buysellzone=1 and lastBreakPricelastBreakPriceBSand CrossUp( EMA[0](Close, 10) , WMA[0](Close, 34) ) thenAddBuyEntry Contract = "Buy["+hh+"]"lastBreakPriceBS=lastBreakPricehh=hh+1ENDIF if isbuyposition thenaddbuyexit BElOW = lastBreakPriceBS - Point(20))endifif issellposition thenaddsellexit OVER = lastBreakPriceBS+ Point(20))endifFor the GBPJP which it is optimized for here are the back tested results:** Here’s a shot of its equity line for the year starting with a zero balance.

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Stripping Down Your Charts

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I mentioned the other day that my son was trading an account without any indicators or anything else of education involved in his decision making. His goal is to make 10,000 trades on his way to learn how to trade. I also mentioned that he was trading a demo account. **Well that has changed. He is trading a live micro account now and has for the last four days. His results are surprising to say the least. I know when I first started I was on the fast track to blowing up my account. I know that he barely has 20 live trades under his belt, but he is already 66% accurate and is just at break even It will take many more trades to identify any problems and when he could statistically improve, but I can’t say that after my first 20 trades that I had those kinds of numbers. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance.**So what I learned from this was that I should strip down my charts and really look at the the one indicator that is king, Price. And it was amazing how I started to see things. If I just traded when I fel like it I could in a testing environment duplicate his results, so I said to myself, what If I took that and added one and only indicator what could I do?Bam, right away I found an actionable system that I could trade. I qualified what I had been seeing when I was just looking at the charts. Though I was able to duplicate my son’s results without a single indicator, with one qualifying indicator I was able to go profitable and raise my winning percentage to over 70%. **If you want to get involved with testing like this you need to join the 10KT group starting on the 2nd of April. We will be doing it as a group and sharing our results. Attacking the market as a group!**

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Spring was here for a day

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Spring was here for a day
Saturday was such a nice day. We almost reached 70 degrees and the sun was out. I woke up this morning and there was snow on the ground. I know it’s just another early spring in Utah but the blow is hard to deal with sometimes.
I start to get excited about the spring and summer and then I have to wait and wait for it to come. What does this have to do with the currency market? Well I was talking with my son last night about a new strategy that we want to implement and he was talking about how many trades and what the projected P/L would be and I could tell he was getting frustrated. Finally I asked him what the problem was. He told he needed a new bass amp and wanted to get a banjo. And the money just wasn’t coming fast enough. I had to laugh. He finally realized after running more numbers that he wasn’t going to get this anywhere else so he relaxed and settled in for the ride. Whether it’s spring or the next pay day iarn FX mket, relax and let the system work .

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Getting My Kicks in the FX Market

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Getting My Kicks in the FX Market
Today the 10KT trading system went live and I am excited about it. The disappointing thing about it is that nearly half those that read the email blog have so far decided not to participate. Listen, there isn’t much reason to come to the blog everyday if you aren’t always trying to improve your trading. Even those that are already trading live, you could also learn by participating. So I encourage you to join in..**
“I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but the man who has practiced 1 kick 10,000 times” Bruce Lee
There is no shortcut to success. I won’t say it all again, but if there was, what would everybody be doing. Get out of the secret sauce mentality, there is no one golden method, there is only you and the market, and the market is treating you like a “nobody”. When are you going to get to know the market better than it knows you?**

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Thursday webinars

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Thursday webinars
If any of you are not attending the webinars that we have on Thursday’s you are missing out on a huge amount of information. I only know of a few places where all this information is available and we definitely have more of it than anyone else, and it’s all for free. Last night we have several questions for someone new to forex trading and we also had scripting questions. We talked about Inter market analysis, inter pair relationships and 10KT. I challenged everyone to take 200 practice trades without using an indicator. I started it last night and posted my results in the 10KT section. It was a great webinar that had a ton of really good information in it. I would encourage all of you to attend whenever possible. I really can’t wait to see everyone’s results form the challenge. It should be very interesting.

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Making the most out of your Forex time

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I was watching a show over the weekend about muscle women, and the follow up show about people who tattoo, pierce and modify their bodies to the extreme. I realized that we as Forex traders could easily be wrapped up in the same psychological blanket as these folks are.I’ll admit I have a tattoo, but I am far from muscle bound. I enjoy the occasional workout here and there but nothing formal or too rigorous. The real point that was made in the show was how these people had done these things to compensate for something else.
One lady had anorexia when she was younger, and initially got into the gym to burn more calories, liked how she felt after a workout and took it to the other extreme. The deeper issue wasn’t explored much you could argue that she is covering one obsession with another. Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} Traders build their expectations of success and very few of them succeed. The obsession with charts and indicators and systems can lead to dysfunctional trading that must be cured before one can really develop as a trader.

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Participation

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Participation
I just talked to someone that was doing the challenge and, no surprise there, they are seeing a little bit of success too**. He’s trading alive account, which I definitely don’t recommend, but when you come to the webinar on Thursday I’ll make sure you guys get to talk to him about how is doing and what he is doing. I can’t stress enough how much of a difference this is making to those that are following it already. I am hearing some really good things. This whole experiment made me think of the little chicken story that I shared last week. We can only help you so much, sooner or later you are going to have to sit down and do the work to get good. You are the only one that can affect the outcome of your trading, and I bet most of us spend more time trying to improve everything but ourselves. The 10KT exercises are designed to do just that. Improve what is in you. Not some system that somebody else gave you or someone else has shared with you. Get on the bus, and lets all make it work together. Otherwise I’ll be the only one that benefits from this whole thing.
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No one wants it when responsibility is required.

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No one wants it when responsibility is required.
I am of the firm belief that the American consumer is as much at fault as the big multinational banks and corporations for the current state of the economy. Here is where I see the difference in reaction to the problem though.
By default the consumer has had to tighten the purse strings. Some are losing their homes, others are losing their jobs, and some are just tightening up after several years of open wallet spending. He money available to help the consumer is a drop in the bucket compared to what has already been spent on banks, investment companies and AIG
. When the homeowner gets a hamper mortgage refinanced under the new Fed programs they are expected to continue making the payments and being responsible for their expenses. The big boys don’t want to be held to that same standard. The latest traap requests dropped to 1.7 billion, down from over 4 billion, largely due to the strings attached to the money.
Going back to the days of double digit growth isn’t likely to happen any time soon, and what it feels like, is that now the party is over, the banks don’t want to stop partying. They don’t want to tighten up except their lending standards. Everyone, corporations and individuals need to take responsibility and tighten up everywhere. Even though I think in US we have seen the bottom, spending is still not the way out of this mess.

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The Dust Bowl and GAAP

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The Dust Bowl and GAAP
I would like to take the opportunity to challenge the generally accepted principles that most people use to govern their lives in respect to the world they live in and those that we have for years put our trust in. My wife is in her second to last semester in her Master of Accounting program and is in the process of completing a paper for her Government Accounting class.
There are three very interesting things that I have learned from her about the way our various governments keep their records.
1. The Federal Government doesn’t hold itself to the same accounting standards that it holds state and local governments and businesses too. 2. The Budget that is made so public is cash based budget that does not include debts owed in the future as any other entity would be required to keep.3. The treasury department publishes a GAAP financial statement each year that would make anybody with a pulse sick to their stomach.
These three items alone are tough but here are a few numbers to chew on.
1. The Federal Deficit of 2008 using GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles), without Social Security or Medicare, is actually $1.009 Trillion, not the $454.8 billion you hear in the news today.2. If add in Social Security and Medicare the deficit of 2008 was actually $5.1 Trillion.
But wait that’s not all!
3. Using GAAP the Federal Governments Net Worth is -$59.3 Trillion. 4. If you take into account all of the obligations we owe, that’s like taking all your car debt and house debt and credit card debt and totaling it, the good old US of A owes a staggering $65.5 Trillion. This includes things like interest, promised Social Security and Medicare payments.
Sixty Five and half Trillion dollars! Say that really fast five times. It’s amazing. This all came up after watching a show on the great dust bowl. It seemed all too familiar.
The government wanted the US to become the breadbasket to the world so they started giving land away as long as it was plowed and planted. A great race for the mid west was started. When they wanted more people to move to the mid west they doubled the amount of land they were giving away. As the world’s population grew so did the price of wheat. The US passed Russia for the first time in the production of what just before the depression. Farmers were receiving record high prices for their wheat. Then it all came crashing down. Wheat fell from close to $.70 a bushel to less than $.20. This broke most farmers and as the rain ceased, the dust bowl ensued. It all sounds to familiar.

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Looking at the Correlation between the DJIA and the USDJPY

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Looking at the Correlation between the DJIA and the USDJPY

have had a few questions about using the DJIA as a gauge to trade in the forex market. So the first thing we need to do is take a look at the directional correlation between the two. Now the following chart is not reflective of percent gain or loss. I just copied one and pasted it over the other, so you could see the similarities in movement over the trading day.
Other than the horrible spelling, I was pretty right. But how did I arrive at this conclusion?In the above chart the first thing I noticed was that there was a longer term line that had been hit by the USDJPY on the move higher and price had subsequently fallen, breaking a longer term support line. I figured then that the daily tone would be a close toward the bottom side of the daily . Now all of you that follow my emails also know that I am short this pair right now, so I have a reason for thinking that the USDJPY will eventually hit 97.20. I factored that into my reasoning and viola, after testing the top side one last time in late afternoon trade the DJIA lost over 156 points in the last hour to close below the daily open.Now let’s make one more educated guess about a price that should print tomorrow. I think that 7932 should print sometime tomorrow. That means the USDJPY could follow the DJIA higher but could start from a much lower place if Asian traders look at the late US loss and send futures and the USDJPY lower overnight .But I didn’t need to look at the correlation between the DJIA and the USDJPY to guess that the USDJPY would have at best an even day. All I needed to do was look at the USDJPY’s support and risistanse to determine where I wanted to be with the pair.

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- Stunning Disregard -

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Stunning Disregard
If you want proof that there was disregard for individuals and investors on the part of large banks and corporations before the fall of the market last year, just listen to the news coming out of Hong Kong. Of course this is conveniently buried now that the Swine Flu is the main headline.
Banks and Investment firms were selling notes linked to Lehman Brothers before they failed, to old people, less sophisticated investors and even the mentally ill. There is even evidence that they were being sold as low risk investments.
To rub salt in the wounds of the investors that bought the notes, the regulatory body that found out about the practices, stated in a report that to disclose the information would be against public interest. I wonder how much that guy was collecting under the table. The findings were originally blacked out of the report, and not revealed.
Now for all those here in the US, if you think this isn’t reflective of the practices here in the US, forget about it. I agree with one statement from the article, “If more restrictions are placed on the sale of investment products it could add a lot onto banks’ operating costs,” What are you supposed to do though; it’s apparent that the industry cannot or will not regulate itself. BoA is in the headlines needing another 60 to 70 billion. I wonder where they are spending all that cash.

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Automate your Forex Trading

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Automate your Forex Trading
A lot has been made lately of auto trading your forex account. From fully automated trading robots to signals, auto trading can offer you some huge benefits. There are times that you just can’t or don’t want to, be in front of the computer. This doesn’t mean that you have to miss out on your trades. With the forex cutor there are several ways you can trade Forex with automated signals. From simple price alerts to full automated trade execution, the ForeXecutor can handle it all. This article will discuss briefly the types of trading and alerts that you can use to help automate your trading.
Using simple price alerts you can be notified when a price has been touched. These can be prices above or below current price action. Once the price is hit, you can be notified via text, email as well as the charting platform.
Buy/Sell signals can also be generated, but not actually executed to your live account, allowing you a little more control over the actual execution of the trade. This is a popular option during news events and periods of time when the market is expected to move extremely rapidly, but pull backs are also expected.
Full Auto execution can be achieved with the ForeXecutor. Once a Buy/Sell signal is generated on the charting platform the signal is sent to your broker from your trading platform, allowing the trade to be automatically executed.
In addition to the above clear cut trading examples, you can vary the type of auto execution you want at any given time. Full control of execution is given to the user at all times. Whether you want your trades to be automatically executed or you simply want to be alerted to a specific trade set up ForeXecutor has you covered.

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- Contango and Cash -

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It’s very interesting to get into the whole trading thing deeper than you had been before. If you have never heard the term, Contango before, were both in the same boat. Just because the currency market in the US is lumped in with commodity trading, doesn’t mean I have heard it all.
Contango is “a condition in which distant delivery prices for futures exceed spot prices” in this case oil that is being held in takers off the coasts so that real commodity traders, Oil companies, refiners etc, can benefit from the difference in near and future commodity contracts.
Why would they do this, what forces are at work here? On land the oil refineries are full as demand for oil and oil products has dropped, so storing the oil on land is expensive because there is a shortage of space to store oil. To solve this problem, suppliers store the oil on tankers, out of the market, and off the balance sheets, effectively hidden, and then deliver when the price difference or cantango resolves itself.
The problem is that well over 100 million barrels are stored at sea right now and will need to be delivered because it can only be stored for so long. In a well written article that explains this very well I pulled the following quote.
“Historically, the general rule has been that 50 days of forward cover is mega bullish for oil prices, 53 days is bullish, 57 days bearish and 60 days mega bearish,” said David Hufton, managing director of brokers PVM Oil Associates.
So how many days of forward cover do we have right now including the off shore oil? 64.45, the most since the end of the first gulf war, it seems that lower gas prices may be coming.

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التحليل اليومى لسوق العملات : الجمعة 31 /7/2009

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التحليل اليومى لسوق العملات : الجمعة 31 /7/2009

تذبذب الدولار الأمريكي في انتظار الإعلان عن الإنتاج المحلي الإجمالي

من المتوقع تذبذب حركة الدولار بقوة اليوم في انتظار الإعلان عن مؤشر الإنتاج المحلي الإجمالي للفصل الثاني من الاقتصاد الأمريكي في الساعة 12:30 بتوقيت جرينتش. تشير التوقعات إلى قراءة 1.4% أي أفضل من قراءة الفصل الأول عند -5.5%. كما من المتوقع أن يؤثر على حركة السوق اليوم مؤشر أسعار المستهلك ومعدل البطالة من منطقة اليورو. ولتحقيق أرباح كبيرة اليوم، يمكن فتح صفقات على الدولار واليورو والباوند والين الياباني أثناء تداول يوم الجمعة.

التحليل الاقتصادي
الدولار الامريكي USD - انخفاض الدولار تأثرًا بالمزيد من الإشارات بالتعافي
انخفض الدولار يوم أمس بعد أن أظهر الاقتصاد الأمريكي والاقتصاد العالمي إشارات إضافية بالتعافي. كان هذا بسبب التوقعات الخاصة بالإنتاج المحلي الإجمالي المقرر الإعلان عنه اليوم، والذي من المتوقع أن يشير إلى انخفاض معدل نمو الاقتصاد الأمريكي بمعدل أبطأ خلال الفصل الثاني عن ما كان عليه في الفصل الأول، كما ساعات تقارير أرباح الشركات العالمية على ارتفاع معدل التفاؤل الاقتصادي. وبدوره، ساعد هذا على ارتفاع أسواق الأسهم، حيث استفاد المستثمرون من التفاؤل الجديد في السوق لرفع أسعار العملات ذات العوائد الأعلى مثل اليورو والدولار الاسترالي. انخفض الدولار أمام اليورو بمقدار 75 نقطة إلى مستوى 1.4128. ويأتي هذا بعد الإعلان عن قراءات أفضل من التوقعات من مؤشر البطالة الألمانية ومؤشر ثقة المستهلك في منطقة اليورو. كما انخفض الدولار أمام الباوند بعد أن سجل مؤشر ثقة المستهلك البريطاني قراءة أفضل من التوقعات. وقد أغلق الباوند/ دولار بارتفاع قدره 150 نقطة عند مستوى 1.6519. وأمام الين الياباني، ارتفع الدولار الأمريكي بنسبة 0.5% إلى مستوى 95.35، ممتدًا في ارتفاعاته بعد أن أظهرت بيانات الحكومة انخفاض في معدلات البطالة المستمرة، مما دعّم التفاؤل بشأن سوق العمل الأمريكي. واليوم من المحتمل بقوة أن يستمر سلوك السوق بنفس الطريقة. فمن المحتمل أن يستمر اعتماد التجار على تفاؤل يوم الخميس. وقد يستمر هذا في دفع الدولار للأسفل أمام العملات الأساسية. وننصح التجار بتتبع البيانات الأمريكية اليوم، حيث سيتم الإعلان عن الإنتاج المحلي الإجمالي ومؤشر تكاليف التوظيف في الساعة 12:30 بتوقيت جرينتش، ومؤشر مديري المشتريات من شيكاغو في الساعة 13:45 بتوقيت جرينتش.وبالتالي إذن رغبت في جني الكثير من الأرباح مع نهاية أسبوع التداول، يمكنك فتح صفقات على الدولار الأمريكي الآن.
اليورو EUR - ارتفاع اليورو وسط تحسن الثقة الاقتصادية العالمية
ارتفع اليورو أمام الدولار الأمريكي يوم أمس بعد أن أظهرت البيانات تحسن الثقة الاقتصادية في منطقة اليورو خلال يوليو، بالإضافة إلى الانخفاض غير المتوقع في البطالة الألمانية، والذي يعتبر إشارة مشجعة على الآمال بالتعافي في المنطقة. كما حازت العملة الأوروبية على المزيد من القوة أمام الين الياباني إلى أعلى مستوى في جلسة الخميس لأن الارتفاع الحاد في الأسهم سوف يدعم ارتفاع معدل الرغبة في المخاطرة. ارتفع اليورو إلى أعلى مستوى أمام الين عند 134.86، وأغلق عند مستوى 134.67. ارتفع اليورو بمقدار كبير أمام الدولار الأمريكي إلى مستوى 1.4128، مرتدًا من أدنى مستوى خلال أسبوعين بالقرب من 1.40. وتخلى اليورو عن ارتفاعاته بعد أن قال صندوق النقد الدولي أن سعر صرف اليورو يبدو قوي بالمقارنة مع العوامل الاقتصادية. ووفقًا للمحللين، قد يتخلى اليورو عن ارتفاعاته الشهرية أمام الدولار الأمريكي اليوم قبل الإعلان عن التقارير التي تُظهِر أن الانكماش يقل في منطقة اليورو وأن الخسائر في التوظيف سوف تزيد. وقد ارتفع الباوند أمام الدولار الأمريكي يوم الثلاثاء، بعد أن أظهرت التقارير ارتفاع أسعار المنازل في يوليو للشهر الثالث على التوالي. وقد أدى هذا إلى امتداد ارتفاعات الباوند ليسجل أعلى مستوى أمام اليورو خلال 4 أسابيع. كما ارتفع الباوند أمام اليورو والدولار بعد ارتفاع ثقة المستهلك البريطاني إلى أعلى مستوى منذ أبريل 2008. وكانت هذه إشارة أخرى بأن بريطانيا تخرج من الركود. يتوقع المحللون احتمالية استمرار ارتفاع اليورو والباوند على مدار التداول اليوم.
الين الياباني JPY - انخفاض الين الياباني أمام العملات الأساسية
انخفض الين الياباني أمام العملات الأساسية يوم الخميس، حيث تم الإعلان عن عدد من البيانات الاقتصادية من دول العالم. وقد أدى هذا إلى ارتفاع أسعار الأسهم العالمية للأسبوع الثالث على التوالي، مما قلل الطلب على الين الياباني. وبالنظر هذا علىرة الأكبر، نجد بيانات اقتصادية إيجابية وارتفاع في الأسهم وتقارير أفضل من التوقعات عن أرباح الشركات مما أدنى إلى ارتفاع معدل الرغبة في المخاطرة، كما يقول المحللون. بالإضافة إلى ذلك، يعني تحسن معدل الرغبة في المخاطرة أن العملات الآمنة سوف تزداد ضعفًا.سيتم إطلاق عدد من صناديق المالي اليابانية الكبيرة، مما أدى إلى استمرار ضعف الين أمام الدولار الأمريكي والعملات ذات العوائد الأعلى، مثل الدولار الأسترالي. ولكن على المدى القريب، من المتوقع أن يكون لهذا الحدث تأثير محدود، حيث أن ارتفاع أسعار الأسهم والسلع في الأسابيع القليلة الماضية يجعل مديري صناديق المالي حذرين بشأن إدارة الأموال، وذلك كما يعتقد التجار.
النفط الخام Crude Oil - ارتداد النفط بسبب تفاؤل السوق
ارتفعت أسعار النفط الخام فوق مستوى 67.50 دولار للبرميل يوم الخميس، مدعومًا بارتفاع أسواق الأسهم في السوق الأوروبية والآسيوية، وتحسن تقارير أرباح الشركات عن التوقعات، بالإضافة إلى البيانات التي تدل على انتهاء مرحلة التباطؤ الاقتصادي. وكان النفط قد ارتفع بنسبة 5% يوم أمس وهو أعلى مستوى خلال ما يزيد عن 3 أشهر وذلك بسبب تحسن معدل البطالة الأمريكية مما عزز الثقة في قطاع الطاقة. ويدل كل هذا على أن الاقتصاديات القيادية قد تخرج من الركود في الأشهر القادمة. قد يستمر النفط في الارتفاع بسبب ارتفاع معدل التفاؤل بأن انخفاض الاقتصاد العالمي سوف يتوقف. فقد تراجع عدد الأشخاص المشتكين من البطالة للأسبوع الثالث، وذلك وفقًا لوزارة العمل الأمريكية. وأظهر تقرير أمريكي يوم أمس ارتفاع غير متوقع في مخزونات النفط الخام بسبب تباطؤ الطلب. وفشل هذا في دفع الأسعار للأسفل بسبب ارتفاع أسعار النفط الخام الناتج عن ضعف الدولار الأمريكي.
التحليل الفني
اليورو/الدولار الامريكي EUR/USD
ارتفع هذا الزوج إلى مستوى 1.4128 يوم أمس بعد انخفاضه ليومين. ويبدو أن مؤشرات التذبذب تعرض إشارات متضاربة. ومن ناحية، يشير الاستوكاستك البطيء على الرسم البياني الأسبوعي إلى أن الحركة الصعودية سوف تستمر اليوم. ومن ناحية أخرى، يدل مؤشر القوة النسبية والاستوكاستك البطيء على الرسم البياني للساعة على أن هذا الزوج يفقد قوته، وان التصحيح الهبوطي وشيك. قد يكون من المفضل اليوم الدخول من الاختراق الهبوطي.
الجنيه الاسترليني/ دولار امريكي GBP/USD
ارتفع الباوند/ دولار يوم أمس ويقع تداوله الآن عند 1.6535. ويبدو أن مؤشرات التذبذب على الرسم البياني اليومي في المنطقة المحايدة. ويشير مؤشر القوة النسبية والماكد على الرسم البياني اليومي إلى أن هذا الزوج في منطقة ذروة الشراء، وأن التصحيح الهبوطي قد يتحقق اليوم. ويدعم هذا مؤشر القوة النسبية على الرسم البياني الأسبوعي. قد يكون من المفضل البيع اليوم حيث يسعى التجار إلى تحقيق أرباح في نهاية اليوم.
الدولار الامريكي/الين الياباني USD/JPY
استمر ارتفاع هذا الزوج لمدة يومين ويقع تداوله الآن حول مستوى 95.35. ويوجد بعض البيانات الفنية التي تدعم فكرة أن هذا الزوج سوف يصل اليوم إلى مستوى 96.00. ويبدو أن مؤشرات التذبذب تعرض إشارات متضاربة. ويدعم الماكد على الرسم البياني اليومي والاستوكاستك البطيء على الرسم البياني الأسبوعي فكرة الموجة الصعودية اليوم. ويشير الماكد على الرسم البياني للساعة والاستوكاستك البطيء على الرسم البياني للأربع ساعات إلى الاتجاه الهبوطي اليوم. ويعتبر دخول هذا الزوج مع ظهور إشارة أوضح هي الإستراتيجية المناسبة اليوم.
الدولار الامريكي /الفرنك السويسري USD/CHF
انخفض هذا الزوج بمقدار بسيط يوم أمس، على الرغم من انخفاضه خلال اليومين الماضيين. يقع تداول هذا الزوج حول مستوى 1.0860، ويوجد المزيد من البيانات الفنية التي تدعم الحركة الصعودية اليوم. ويشير الاستوكاستك البطيء على جميع الرسوم البيانية إلى احتمالية أن يكون هناك اتجاه صعودي اليوم. ويدعم هذا أيضًا مؤشر القوة النسبية على الرسم البياني اليومي. ومن المفضل اليوم الشراء مع نقاط وقف قريبة.
التوصية اليومية
النفط الخام Crude Oil
ارتفع النفط الخام يوم أمس فوق مستوى 67 دولار للبرميل. ويبدو أن مؤشرات التذبذب على الرسم البياني للساعة تدل على أن الاتجاه الصعودي قد يكون قصير المدى وأن التصحيح الهبوطي قد يكون وشيك. ويدعم مؤشر القوة النسبية على الرسم البياني الأسبوعي والماكد على الرسم البياني اليومي فكرة أن سعر النفط الخام قد يتخذ الاتجاه الهبوطي في المستقبل القريب. قد يكون من الحكمة اليوم دخول تجار الفوركس على النفط في مرحلة مبكرة من الاتجاه القادم.

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Another Change to Forex Trading Charts

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Another Change to Forex Trading Charts

Tuesday, 02 June 2009 22:51
Here's another killer change to the Forex Charts. You can now measure a trends distance in Pips. Simply draw your line, right click on the line and select "Pip Measurement". I know alot of you have been asking for that one. So knock yourself out.

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High Oil = Lots of Alternatives

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As mentioned in the other blog posted today, high oil prices drive the demand for, and create new, alternatives to oil. Imagine if you will, a 4x4, all wheel drive vehicle that gets 100 mpg. That is the nightmare that keeps OPEC nation leaders awake at night.
I've got news for them, Freddy just got out of the furnace and is on his way over. A company from my home state has released details on just such a vehicle. Here is an m msn article about it. It's so cool and they want it showrooms by 2011. I am gonna save up my pennies for one.
Even if there is a valid argument for discounting the mpg of the vehicle to incorporate the usage of resources to produce the electricyt, 33 mpg would double the current mpg and cut inhalf the amount of oil we need to buy overseas. Just imagine if you had made trillions of dollars by producing 1 product and in a few years that gets cut in half. I know that is over simplified, but trust me, they are taking notice.

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Interesting times

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was out to dinner with my family last night, and in-between sips of coke and bites of Pier 49 Pizza, it occurred to me, we are about to enter a very interesting time in the world. Forget last year’s crash, forget the "recovery" we are going through right now. enquities are at a make or break point, the USD is teetering on the edge of full out slaughter, the fomc and many world organizations are calling for a recovery in the latter half of the year, record unemployment is still growing and people have finally capitulated on using the term "green shoots".
My point is this, from here we have two very different roads the economy can take. The slightest quake and the recovery tips off and we spend the next ten years digging out. The other is a continued recovery that takes place slowly but surely. I explained this to my kids, who are 18 and 16, and there unenthusiastic response was matched by my exuberance for the topic. I just returned to my coke and pizza and made a note to redouble my efforts as a trader.

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- Great day for Equities -

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Just following up on the post I made the other day about this being an interesting time in the economic landscape. Did today just prove my point or what? The DJIA breaks and then closes over 9000. There are so many diverging views being seen by Wall Street and Main Street. Microsoft earnings down 29%, Amazon misses estimates and AmEx doesn't make a BUCK either. Then home prices, home sales, and home inventory’s all make progress.So I guess homes are being bought, but nothing is going in them? Or, hear me out on this one...speculators are buying on long bets in the recovery.
Any way the final shape of the recovery comes out, I am starting to get the impression it isn't going to look like anyone’s model. In the last thirty days I have read articles quoting very notable sources calling for oil at $25 and another at $100+. This is the whole reason I keep my trade’s short term and am not playing either side of the recovery/failure coin.

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- GBPJPY Closes with profit -

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FTSE Falls after US GDP
US stocks remain anemic Thanks to Yahoo Finance for these charts. It has been very interesting watching the reaction of the US stock market to this morning’s GDP release. So far they have not participated in the USD rout. Oil is back above 68, which I don't understand, considering that consumer spending was down more than double what was expected. The Pound has slapped the USD, taking to pair toa high 1.6732 so far. The high from June 29th is 1.6744 and will need to be bested for the rally to continue.
SNB may have little control nowAll the talk in the world may not stop the CHF from taking flight today and beyond. They have done a great job of keeping the currency from getting out of control up to this point, with verbal intervention, and their entire goal may have been just what they did, hold off the currency’s strength for a later date, so that it just wasn't out of control now. With a close below the top support line the bottom line may come into focus. Trade idea short here, stop above 1.5252, targeting 1.5180.
GBPUSD Highly important EURFPY 185.4 Points Profit booked on VolatilityAlthough it was just my profit target,(past results are not indicative of future results) and is most likely going to get hit again, 135.16 was hit on volatility after the GDP release. Initially the USD caught a bid, but is now falling against the four majors and the USDCAD. It remains to be seen if this is knee jerk on the US opening, or if it holds up. The DJIA has opened higher today, but only slightly. Regardless of what you think, when you dig into the numbers, the GDP release was not good. Yes it was better than expected, but consumer spending shank more than double what it was expected too. We'll have to see if the equity bulls can pull off a gain based on this GDP release.
If the FTSE is giving any indication that the recent rally was overdone, the us markets should open lower. I'll hit more details on the release later.
GBPJPY Closes with profit
Written by Administrator
Thursday, 30 July 2009 08:19
USDINX Fails to reach resistance line shown below. Don't expect price to go anywhere for the time being. The difference between the resistance line and the price this mornign didn't make any sense for a trade. The move closed the fill on a 6 hr black candle, leaving no other targets in play.
USDCAD is in trouble and last Monday's comment
I made two comments about the USDCAD on Monday, one proved to be true and we need to wait until tomorrow to see if the other proves true. I mentioned that the pair would head back up to 1.0935/50 area andit did, then later in the day I said that I just dont see the USDCAD holding at these levels, meaning I expect the pair to fall. Right now price is again testing the waters at 1.0800 and I get that feeling again that it just stop here.
USDJPY 22 points form target, gunning for 95.07
I detailed a trade earlier in the day and now price is only 22 points away form the target. WIth continued strength tongiht in the Asian market the trade may close. A little volitility may just pop the target even if the target isn't closed through.
The case for whats so wrong about the rise
The NEKKEI is up almost 140 points in early Asia, followng the US market higher. Yet the news for real economic recovery in Asia is dismal, let's run through them. Unemployment UP .1%, Household spending UP 2% over last year, but down .1% MoM, CPI flat negative numbers to down -1.7%. The main headline inflation CPI fell the most in 30 years. That unemplyment figure is the worst in over 5 years and worse than expected. Corporate earnings based on cost cuts and government spending will not finish off the recession. Consumers have to have the desire and the ability to wade back into the marketplace before a sustained recovery will take hold. A bull trap may be in the making. If we see the same type of number surprise us in the next week, the market may tumble, falling flat on its recovery face.
EURUSD moving toward 1.4100 stuck on 21 day MA
After the GDP hits and who knows from there. Current action is around the 21 day MA at 1.4077, a hang up point for both directions.
USDJPY Singal weakness to 95.02
I'll look for a few points higher though. Maybe with a target at 95.07. I am a little torn with the idea because I have a longer term trade back to 97.88
EURJPY Candle signals a drop to 133.64I'll be looking for price to fall to 133.64 plus the spread. I am very interested by today's move in the currency market because of its lack of force against the USD. It's been the JPY that has been the big loser so far. I am not saying that the USD hasn't felt some if it, but the USDINX is only currently down 15 points from its opening. With the DJIA over 9200 and the other major indexes are all up, the USD should be feeling the pinch.
GBPJPY Closes with profit: 7 for 8 this week so far
It's been a great week to say the least, (Past performance is not indicative of future performance). My target was 1.5658. More details after the US open.
Last Updated on Friday, 31 July 2009 04:07

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, FTSE Falls after US GDP ,

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US stocks remain anemic

Thanks to Yahoo Finance for these charts. It has been very interesting watching the reaction of the US stock market to this morning’s gdp release. So far they have not participated in the USD rout. Oil is back above 68, which I don't understand, considering that consumer spending was down more than double what was expected. The Pound has slapped the USD, taking to pair toa high 1.6732 so far. The high from June 29th is 1.6744 and will need to bested for the rally to continue.

SNB may have little control now

All the talk in the world may not stop the CHF from taking flight today and beyond. They have done a great job of keeping the currency from getting out of control up to this point, with verbal intervention, and their entire goal may have been just what they did, hold off the currency’s strength for a later date, so that it just wasn't out of control now. With a close below the top support line the bottom line may come into focus. Trade idea short here, stop above 1.5252, targeting 1.5180.

GBPUSD Highly important

The USD Crush begins, will it last, USDJPY 79.4 points profit booked.
The USD may not be able to withstand the surge if folks start piling on USD shorts. Watch those "B" lines drawn below though. Breaks back against and through them will almost surely show that the USD crush was just a wave of last desperate pushes. I for one am willing to give this recent USD failure a wide berth. Even now the GBP has broken 1.6585 highs from the 23rd and is taking on 1.6600 with a break above that level. Today the USD falters hard. The good news is that the USDJPY short I had has filled profitably with 79.4 points in profit (past profits are not indicative of future gains). I entered the trade yesterday if you want to go see the details, I also want to short the USDCAD but can't see a reason yet.

EURFPY 185.4 Points Profit booked on Volatility

Although it was just my profit target,(past results are not indicative of future results) and is most likely going to get hit again, 135.16 was hit on volatility after the GDP release. Initially the USD caught a bid, but is now falling against the four majors and the USDCAD. It remains to be seen if this is knee jerk on the US opening, or if it holds up. The DJIA has opened higher today, but only slightly. Regardless of what you think, when you dig into the numbers, the GDP release was not good. Yes it was better than expected, but consumer spending shank more than double what it was expected too. We'll have to see if the equity bulls can pull off a gain based on this GDP release.

If the FTSE is giving any indication that the recent rally was overdone, the us markets should open lower. I'll hit more details on the release later.

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