20‏/12‏/2009

UPDATE 1-Japan exports show double-dip recession less likely

UPDATE 1-Japan exports show double-dip recession less likely
* Economists say return to recession unlikely due to exports

* Japan's domestic demand still a worry for the economy

By Rie Ishiguro

TOKYO, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Japan's exports rose by the most in seven years in November due to solid Asian demand, reducing worries that the Japanese economy will fall into another recession next year.

The pace of decline for exports compared to the same month a year earlier also slowed substantially from October, as stimulus measures in overseas economies bolstered demand for Japanese goods.

Strong growth in China and the rest of Asia is likely to continue to support Japan's export growth next year, economists say, and that will likely be enough to compensate for Japan's weak domestic demand and prevent the economy from experiencing a double dip.

"I'd say the recovery in exports so far this year has been close to the best scenario we had thought of at the beginning of the year," said Junko Nishioka, chief economist at RBS Securities in Tokyo.

"Given that exports are growing solidly despite the yen's rise last month, we don't need to be overly pessimistic about growth. The economy will perhaps slow down early next year but a recession is unlikely."

Exports rose 4.9 percent in November from the previous month, seasonally adjusted figures from the Ministry of Finance showed on Monday.

Compared with a year ago, Japan's exports fell 6.2 percent in November, less than the median market forecast for a 6.5 percent decline and slower than a 23.2 percent annual decline the previous month, the data showed.

Exports to Asia, which account for more than half of Japan's total exports, rose 4.7 percent from a year earlier, posting the first annual rise since September last year.

Exports to China rose 7.8 percent from a year earlier, while exports to the United States fell 7.9 percent.

Japan logged a trade surplus of 373.9 billion yen ($4.13 billion), bigger than the median estimate for a 344.5 billion yen surplus. [JPTBAL=ECI]

The rebound in exports has been a major driving force behind Japan's recovery.

But gross domestic product growth in the three months to September was slashed to just 0.3 percent, data on Dec. 9 showed, much slower than the initial estimate of 1.2 percent.

Although few economists expect another recession now that the country has pulled out of its worst downturn in decades, they say Japan's economy will likely grow very slowly in the first half of next year. [ECILT/JP]

Worries that the economy could hit a soft spot early next year have prompted policy actions by the government and the BOJ, even as much of the world is unwinding emergency steps taken after the financial crisis last year.

Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's government, in office for three months, unveiled a stimulus package with spending of 7.2 trillion yen earlier this month as it wants to avoid recession ahead of an upper house election next year.

The Bank of Japan, under pressure from the government to take steps on deflation, has also taken new steps.

It started a new operation and also said it is not tolerating zero inflation, let alone deflation, adding many board members think of one percent inflation as an ideal. [ID:nT374859] [ID:nT289621]

Many economists say the course of Japanese economy hinges on the strength of exports, and thus ultimately the global economy, because domestic demand is structurally weak because of the ageing population.

ECB Said to Start Consulting Banks, Investors on Collatera

ECB Said to Start Consulting Banks, Investors on Collatera
Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank officials are moving closer to forcing banks to provide more information about the collateral they give the ECB in return for loans.

ECB policy makers may today approve the start of a consultation process with banks, investors and market participants asking them to suggest how residential mortgage- backed securities can be made more transparent, according to two people involved in the process. The Governing Council meets today in Frankfurt.

The ECB is trying to better monitor the quality of the assets it’s holding in return for the funds it’s pumped into the European banking system during the crisis. European banks have created about 1.1 trillion euros ($1.6 trillion) of asset-backed securities since June 2007, which they can use as collateral for ECB loans.

The ECB’s push “will increase transparency for investors and better information will attract new investors,” said Dipesh Mehta, a London-based securitization analyst at Barclays Capital. “U.S. investors already find the European transactions hard to look at without loan by loan data.”

Banks, investors and other market participants have about two months to comment, the people said. An ECB spokeswoman declined to comment.

ECB Vice President Lucas Papademos said on Dec. 12 the bank plans to take steps to help revive the asset-backed bond market which was dormant for more than a year until September, when Volkswagen AG and Lloyds Banking Group Plc sold investors 1.7 billion euros ($2.5 billion) of the securities.

Arrears

Under the terms of the collateral consultation, officials want banks to provide information about individual loans such as the value of the property backing a mortgage, details on cash flow and whether the borrower is in arrears, the people said.

Banks in Europe have pledged about 217 billion euros of asset-backed securities as collateral at the ECB, Barclays Capital estimates.

The ECB has already tightened the rules for asset-backed securities it accepts as the central bank moves toward unwinding its emergency liquidity measures. The ECB said Nov. 20 it wants to ensure “high credit standards” are met and aims to restore “the proper functioning of the ABS market.”

Banks have used asset-backed bonds, notes secured by mortgages and credit card bills, more than any other type of debt as collateral in exchange for ECB funding.

The ECB has used money market operations as one of its main policy tools in response to the financial crisis. The ECB yesterday said it loaned banks 96.9 billion euros at its last tender of 12-month funds, more than the 75 billion euros forecast by a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

The ECB may also approve a similar consultation on the securities backed by the loans of small-and-mid-sized companies and commercial mortgages, said the people.

Spyker CEO Says EIB Loan Is Biggest Saab Deal Hurdle

Dec. 17 -- Spyker Cars NV’s plan to buy General Motors Co.’s Saab unit hinges on the European Investment Bank approving a loan before the end of December, the Dutch luxury-car maker’s chief executive officer said.

GM and Spyker are not the “potential problem for this transaction,” Victor Muller said in a phone interview from his home in Amsterdam today, adding that winning EIB support before year-end is the biggest obstacle. So far, the European Union’s lending arm has sent “neutral signals” on approving the 400 million-euro ($574 million) loan that is key to the sale and which the Swedish government must guarantee, said Muller.

“It’s mainly now down to the government agencies,” Muller said. “That’s really the main issue. We’re getting lots of support from the Swedish government.”

Spyker, the maker of $235,000 sports cars, emerged as the frontrunner to buy Saab this month after Koenigsegg Group abandoned its bid on Nov. 24. GM Chief Executive Officer Ed Whitacre said on Dec. 15 that the Detroit-based carmaker will shut the unit if it doesn’t reach a deal with Spyker by the end of this month. GM has agreed to sell technology from Saab’s 9-3 and 9-5 models to Beijing Automotive Industry Holding Co.

Koenigsegg Canceled Acquisition

Koenigsegg Group canceled its planned acquisition of Saab, saying it ran out of time because delays in closing the acquisition had “resulted in risks and uncertainties” that prevented it from implementing a new business plan for the Swedish carmaker. The EIB in August delayed a decision on whether to give Saab a loan, which it eventually granted the Trollhaettan, Sweden-based company on Oct. 21.

While the EIB approved the loan to Saab, the bank must now re-evaluate the financing with Spyker as the new owner. The Dutch carmaker is using Koenigsegg’s business plan in its bid and intends to keep Saab’s management if it buys Saab, Muller said.

“In October, the EIB approved the Koenigsegg deal, which was exactly the same deal -- the same lender, same borrower and the same business plan,” Muller said. “The only thing changed is the shareholder, so they have to do due diligence on that.”

EIB Vice President Eva Srejber said that since “this is a change of ownership” then “of course we need to analyze.”

The EIB is in contact with Saab, Spyker, GM and its adviser Deutsche Bank AG and is “working in close cooperation” with Swedish authorities, she said. She declined to comment on whether a decision would be made before the end of the year.

Profitable by 2012

Saab was to become profitable by 2012 with annual sales of at least 100,000 cars, according to Koenigsegg Group’s business plan in September.

Owning Saab would give Spyker access to a network of 1,100 dealers worldwide, Muller said. Spyker currently has 30 dealers. Spyker would also tap into Saab’s engineering resources and supplier network, which could cut costs for some parts the Dutch company uses in its cars, he said.

From Saab’s perspective, one advantage of having Spyker as owner would be to promote the Swedish company’s “independent” nature, Muller said. “That’s what’s there to be gained for Saab -- entrepreneurs at the board level,” he said.

Zeewolde, Netherlands-based Spyker shares fell 1 cent, or 0.5 percent to 2.19 euros in Amsterdam trading. The stock has gained 40 percent since the super-car maker was first reported to be interested in Saab.

No deal will be signed with GM until the EIB has decided on whether Saab can get the loan, Muller said. Spyker is also waiting for the European Commission to decide whether potential Swedish loan guarantees for the EIB funding distorts competition and for the Swedish state to decide whether it will give Saab the guarantees.

‘Blatantly Clear’

“There is very little point in signing an agreement until the time that the governmental agencies have approved the transaction,” Muller said. “Everybody knows exactly what the deadline is. There is no misunderstanding about that,” he said, adding GM’s CEO had been “blatantly clear” about a Dec. 31 deadline.

Saab is likely to win European Commission approval for the EIB loan, Johnny Kjellstroem, who is negotiating the case with the European Union’s regulatory arm on behalf of the Swedish government, said last week. It’s possible that the European Commission will reach a decision this month, he said.

The EIB supports projects throughout the European Union and borrows funds in the capital markets it then lends on to companies under favorable terms, according to its Web site.

Peru to Win More Rating Increases, Credit Suisse Says (Update2)

Dec. 17 -- Peru is poised to receive more credit-rating increases after Moody’s Investors Service moved it to investment grade because the country is posting above-average growth while keeping its budget deficit under control, said Credit Suisse Group AG and Societe Generale SA.

Moody’s raised Peru’s foreign debt rating one level to Baa3, the lowest investment-grade level, from Ba1 late yesterday, more than a year after Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings made identical moves. Moody’s said Peru was able to prevent the global recession from sending the local economy into a “hard landing” by bolstering government spending.

“It sets up a trajectory for more upgrades,” Igor Arsenin, an emerging-market strategist at Credit Suisse AG in New York, said in a telephone interview. “The fundamentals look clean when compared with other investment-grade countries. It reminds everybody of the positive momentum in Peru.”

The Andean nation’s credit-default swaps trade almost on a par with Israel and Poland, countries that are rated at least four levels higher by Moody’s. It costs 1.21 percentage points to protect Peru’s debt against default for five years, compared with 1.20 points for Israel and Poland, according to CMA Datavision. Peru’s cost was 1.92 points six months ago.

Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a country or company fail to adhere to its debt agreements. A basis point on a contract protecting $10 million of debt from default for five years is equivalent to $1,000 a year.

Commodity Savings

Peru’s “economic fundamentals are very good,” said Greg Anderson, a currency strategist at Societe Generale in New York. This “may bring another rating upgrade within a year’s time.”

President Alan Garcia this year tapped savings built up from surging commodity export revenue between 2006 and 2008 to implement a $3 billion stimulus plan. The spending program, along with record-low interest rates, helped the economy expand in August for the first time in three months.

Peru, the world’s third-biggest exporter of copper, zinc and tin, and the largest silver exporter, will post expansions of 1.5 percent this year and 5.8 percent in 2010, the International Monetary Fund forecasts.

By comparison, the IMF predicts a contraction of 2.5 percent in 2009 and an expansion of 2.9 percent next year for Latin America. The 5.8 percent growth forecast for Peru is the IMF’s highest for any major economy in the region next year.

Falling Debt

Finance Minister Luis Carranza said yesterday that the government’s efforts to cut debt helped free up the cash it needed this year to fund the stimulus program. Government debt has dropped to the equivalent of 25 percent of gross domestic product from 50 percent of GDP at the start of the decade, according to Carranza.

“This gave us greater room to implement the economic stimulus plan without difficulty,” Carranza told reporters in Lima.

The government forecasts its deficit will narrow to 1.6 percent of GDP in 2010 from 2 percent this year as tax revenue increases, Carranza said last month. Moody’s said the government’s ability to tap savings to fund its stimulus program was a “positive development.” It said the country’s vulnerabilities include its low income per capita and the “high share” of its debt that’s denominated in dollars.

The extra yield investors demand to own Peru’s dollar bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries has narrowed to 1.93 percentage points from 5.09 percentage points at the end of last year, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Sol Rally

“The upgrade will allow Peru to keep its debt costs low and on a downward trend, while increasing financial and real investment flows,” Carranza said. He predicted foreign-direct investment will jump almost 50 percent next year. “Moody’s upgrade will accentuate this trend.”

The benchmark Lima General Index of stocks has surged 99 percent this year while the sol has gained 8.8 percent to 2.8815 per dollar this year.

Societe Generale’s Anderson said the economic rebound and “responsible fiscal policy” may drive the sol to 2.7 per dollar within six months.

UBS, Credit Suisse Said to Face Tougher Rules on Liquid Assets

Dec. 21 -- UBS AG and Credit Suisse Group AG may have to almost triple the amount of cash they hold in relation to customer deposits under new proposals from Swiss regulators, two people familiar with the matter said.

The two largest Swiss banks may be required to hold 45 percent of customers’ demand deposits in cash or easy-to-sell securities such as government debt, almost three times as much as under current rules, said the people, who declined to be identified because the proposals haven’t been made public. The banks, which are in talks with the regulators, are seeking to soften the requirements, the people said.

Switzerland may be the first country to introduce rules requiring banks to keep more liquid assets on hand following the global credit crisis. Forcing Zurich-based UBS and Credit Suisse to hoard more cash and low-yielding securities against a possible bank run would make them less profitable and may lead them to curb lending, analysts and bank officials said.

“Switzerland has always been stricter with its rules for the banks than other countries,” said Dirk Becker, a Frankfurt- based analyst at Kepler Capital Markets. “Stricter liquidity rules take away the flexibility of the banks in lending. That may lead to fewer loans being made and lower profitability as less interest income is generated.”

Tobias Lux, a spokesman for the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority, said the new rules are aimed at boosting the banks’ short-term liquidity buffers, declining to comment on the details of the proposals.

UBS Rescue

The regulator plans to publish new liquidity management rules in the first quarter of 2010, Lux said. Banks will have to implement them in the second quarter, Swiss National Bank Vice Chairman Philipp Hildebrand said Dec. 10.

The rules as currently envisioned would only apply to the two largest banks, because of concern a collapse of either would endanger the Swiss financial system.

UBS spokeswoman Tatiana Togni and Credit Suisse spokesman Marc Dosch declined to comment.

Swiss regulators have been in discussions with banks to update liquidity rules since before the crisis. The urgency grew when credit markets froze after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s bankruptcy in September 2008. The Swiss government had to support UBS with 6 billion francs ($5.8 billion) in capital to help it spin off risky assets into an SNB fund.

UBS and Credit Suisse held almost 205 billion francs of customers’ sight deposits, or funds that can be transferred immediately and without restrictions, at the end of September. Another 199 billion francs were held in customer deposits, including call money, with a residual maturity of up to one month, according to central bank statistics.

‘Drag’

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision last week said it plans to develop a set of minimum standards for capital and liquidity by the end of 2010, with the aim of implementing them by the end of 2012. The committee proposed introducing a minimum coverage ratio to ensure that banks can meet their liquidity needs for a 30-day period in a stress situation, as well as a ratio to measure the amount of longer-term stable sources of funding used by companies.

The new Basel rules “could be a significant drag on profitability,” Credit Suisse analysts Jagdeep Kalsi, Daniel Davies and Guillaume Tiberghien said in a note on Dec. 18. The cost of extending long-term funding and holding more liquid assets could amount to as much as 30 percent of pretax profits at European banks, they said.

In Switzerland, where the two biggest banks control about a third of domestic lending, stricter liquidity requirements would increase the cost of capital and limit the amount of loans, Hans-Ulrich Meister, Credit Suisse’s head of Swiss business, told a conference on Nov. 30.

‘Credit Crunch’

“The risk is really that we create a credit crunch,” Meister said. “Honestly what will happen is that capital is restricted, gets much more expensive and the two big banks will definitely limit their lending, especially unsecured.”

The tougher rules may also put pressure on the banks to raise fees at a time when profitability is already being squeezed at their private banking operations.

Credit Suisse’s gross margin in the wealth management business fell to 125 basis points in the third quarter from 135 basis points in the second, while UBS’s margin on assets invested by international clients declined to 83 basis points from 87 basis points, in part because of lower interest earnings. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point.

Leverage Cap

The regulators already introduced stricter capital requirements and a cap on leverage for the two banks. They have said that a stable financial industry is more important for Switzerland than other nations, because banks’ assets are the biggest relative to gross domestic product of any G-10 country.

To cushion the effect on banks from stricter rules, the regulators may expand the list of assets that are considered liquid, one person familiar with the matter said.

“In the last two years, the risks presented by systemically important banks to the stability of the financial system and the economy in general have become only too evident,” Hildebrand, who will become chairman of the SNB’s governing board in January, said on Dec. 10. “Another crisis is inevitable and we must be prepared for it.”

Japan’s Exports Fall at Slowest Pace in 14 Months (Update2)

Japan’s Exports Fall at Slowest Pace in 14 Months (Update2)
Dec. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s exports fell at the slowest pace in 14 months in November as demand from Asia supported the nation’s recovery from its worst postwar recession.

Shipments abroad slid 6.2 percent from a year earlier, the smallest drop since September 2008, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. From a month earlier, exports rose a seasonally adjusted 4.9 percent, the biggest advance since November 2002.

Worldwide government spending has spurred demand for cars and electronics goods made by companies including Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd. and Elpida Memory Inc. The improvement in shipments may ease concern Japan’s economic recovery will stall after reports this month showed confidence among large manufacturers rose the least in three quarters and companies plan deeper spending cuts.

“Economic growth may slow in the months ahead as domestic demand remains weak,” said Yoshiki Shinke, senior economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. “But exports are looking solid, so Japan should at least be able to avoid another recession.”

The improvement in exports is partly due to a favorable year-on-year comparison, economists including Shinke said. In November 2008, shipments abroad tumbled 26.8 percent as global trade froze following the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

The median estimate of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for exports to drop 6.8 percent from a year earlier.

Imports Decline

Imports slid 16.8 percent in November from a year earlier, the slowest decline in 12 months, the ministry said. Japan posted a trade surplus for a 10th straight month, totaling 373.9 billion yen ($4.1 billion).

Exports are mending even as the strengthening yen erodes the value of profits companies earn abroad and makes their products less competitive. Japan’s currency traded at 90.41 per dollar at 9:57 a.m. in Tokyo from 90.46 before the report. It has weakened since hitting a 14-year high of 84.83 on Nov. 27. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.6 percent.

Fuji Heavy, the maker of Subaru cars, expects to boost sales in the U.S. and China next year by 15,000 vehicles in each market, Chief Executive Officer Ikuo Mori said in an interview on Dec. 16.

Elpida Memory, Japan’s largest computer-memory chipmaker, may return to profit for the first time in three years, thanks to higher demand, Chief Executive Officer Yukio Sakamoto said this month.

China Growth

Exports to China and Asia both rose for the first time since September 2008. Shipments to Asia advanced 4.7 percent from a year earlier, compared with a 15 percent drop in October. Exports to China, Japan’s biggest overseas customer, climbed 7.8 percent, compared with a 14.4 percent decline the previous month.

Asian economies are benefiting from a global trade rebound that’s being driven by interest-rate cuts and more than $2 trillion in government spending worldwide. Growth in China will accelerate to 9.4 percent next year, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

“Exports to Asia are strong so Japan will be able to avoid a double-dip recession even though a slowdown in domestic demand is unavoidable,” said Azusa Kato, an economist at BNP Paribas in Tokyo. “Demand in Asia is strong enough to offset the adverse impact of the yen’s gain.”

U.S. Sales

Sales to the U.S. fell 7.9 percent, easing from October’s 27.6 percent decrease and automobile shipments to the nation rose for the first time since April 2008, the Finance Ministry said. Exports to Europe slid 15.9 percent after declining 29 percent.

“Exports to the U.S. have hit bottom and are starting to gradually rise,” Dai-Ichi Life’s Shinke said. “Even though it’s not as strong as Asia, it’s positive for Japan’s economy.”

Some companies are coping with the rising currency by trimming costs. Toyota Motor Corp. may avoid an annual loss if the yen trades around 90 per dollar because the automaker will postpone investments and cut costs, the Asahi newspaper reported on Dec. 16.

Japanese policy makers are trying to sustain a recovery that’s under threat from the currency’s gains and deflation. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama unveiled a 7.2 trillion yen economic stimulus package on Dec. 8, a week after the Bank of Japan released a 10 trillion yen credit program. The central bank said last week that it “does not tolerate” falling prices.

Export Revival

The export revival has yet to spread to the domestic economy. Large companies plan to cut spending 13.8 percent in the year ending March 2010, the second-worst projection on record, the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey showed last week. Economic growth slowed to an annualized 1.3 percent in the third quarter, about half the pace of the previous three months.

Household confidence fell in November for the first time this year and wages have slumped for 17 months.

“Even though exports are strong, domestic demand is weaker than people expected earlier this year as employment has worsened rapidly,” said Junko Nishioka, chief economist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo. “That signals the recovery in external demand and the stimulus effects won’t be enough to sustain growth.”

Japan Nov exports fall 6.2 pct year/year - MOF

TOKYO, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Japan's exports fell 6.2 percent in November from a year earlier, Ministry of Finance data showed on Monday, slightly less than economists' median forecast for a 6.5 percent fall. [JPEXPY=ECI]

Exports to Asia, which account for more than half of Japan's total exports, rose 4.7 percent from a year earlier, posting the first annual rise since September last year.

The trade balance came to a surplus of 373.9 billion yen ($4.13 billion), more than the median estimate for a 344.5 billion yen surplus. [JPTBAL=ECI]

Following is a table of the main figures. Economists' median forecasts are in parentheses: -------------------------------------------------------------- (Unadjusted, mln yen, y/y)

NOVEMBER YEAR AGO PCT CHANGE Overall balance +373,925 (+344,500) -227,505 n/a Exports 4,991,667 5,323,503 -6.2 (-6.5) Imports 4,617,742 5,551,008 -16.8(-17.9)

Forex-Swiss.com found a new way to grab money from traders

Forex-Swiss.com found a new way to grab money from traders
Bucketshop brokers have all kinds of tricks to take money from traders. Once traders get sick of the usual games involving slippage and other broker tricks, most of them will at least let you withdraw your money, minus any fees listed on the broker's website and withdrawal forms. Forex-Swiss (aka FXCH, aka Foreign Exchange Clearing House Ltd.) doesn't seem to care that undocumented fees are charged. Forex Swiss doesn't even seem to care that their math makes no sense.

If you check the reviews for Forex-Swiss at the FPA, you'll they are one of the few brokers to have earned and maintained a 1 star rating for an extended period of time. FPA member Raimundas must have missed the reviews. He opened an account. After an incident of very bad slippage cost him a lot of money, he tried to close the account. Since slippage can be so hard to prove as deliberate or not, the FPA doesn't us it as a sole reason for a scam finding. Had Raimundas been paid back in a timely fashion, that would have been he end of the issue.. Instead, delays happened and then he was paid back less than he was owed.

We in Scam Investigations have always suspected that long delays in withdrawals serve 2 purposes. First, some people don't like to fight and will give up and go away quietly. This lets the broker keep all the money. The second is that some people are grateful to get any money back, so won't question unusual fees. We already know some brokers managed to skim $10 or $20 off of wire transfer fees, but Forex-Swiss came up with something different.

It appears that it is impossible to withdraw all of your money from an account at Forex-Swiss. You have to leave $50 in to keep the account active. This is clearly stated on their withdrawal form. We think it's a little harsh, but would not pursue a case based on this. If you want to close an account, they charge $80. We could not find that on their website anywhere or on their withdrawal forms. FPA Investigator Gerard asked, and was told it was on the form. It wasn't.

We have never heard of any other forex broker charging an account closing fee. We also consider it to be very strange that the fee is larger than the amount needed to keep the account open. That means it's cheaper to leave an account open forever than to close it. We wonder if there would be a surprise “inactivity fee” to grab that last $50 later if the account wasn't used. Since the closure fee is not documented on the withdrawal forms we could find on the website, we have no choice but to consider this to be theft.

Forex Swiss also charged him 4% for a credit card withdrawal in addition to the $80. We consider this to be excessive, but not a scam all by itself. The problem was that the amount deducted from Raimundas's account balance was over $100 above what would have been deducted even with both of these fees.

Raimundas asked for explanations and links to where these fees are listed. No one would answer those questions. Forex-Swiss's representatives kept insisting the amount paid was correct. Gerard asked and was also never given a serious answer. Instead, he was given what we would consider to be a nonsensical threat...

Quote:
Be advice every time as you have sent us email with requires and we spent our time to respond to you, 50 USD investigation fee will be charging from the clients accounts and/or will be charged from your side if the client do not have enough funds left in their accounts . The proper invoices will be sent to you in order to cover our expenses.
This means that Forex-Swiss not only won't recheck their own math for a client. They also threaten to take more money from clients or to bill the FPA for trying to help traders who are victimized by Forex-Swiss's accounting department.

Gerard wrote back and promised that the FPA willl process and pay any invoices that Forex-Swiss sends, as long as Forex-Swiss pays a 200% "potential scam company invoice processing fee". 50% of the fee would be fully refundable (less any banking fees and other costs the FPA incurs) if the issue is later resolved.

Gerard gave Forex-Swiss 48 hours to either pay the money still owed to Raimundas or to show were these fees were documented and to show how the calculations could come up with the amount Forex-Swiss paid. The alternative was that he would submit his final report to the FPA Scam Investigations Committee. They did neither.

Raimundas sent them a copy of the withdrawal from downloaded from the Forex Swiss website that showed no account closure fee. Their reply included this...

Quote:
For Bank wire transfer closure account fee is 20 usd.

For Credit card transfer closure account fee is 80 usd, because credit
card banks charge 4% for withdrawal.
This means that Forex-Swiss took out 4%, then charged $80 because they took out 4%, We still don't know why they took out even more. The bank wire withdrawal form makes no mention of an account closure fee.
And there was more...

Quote:
Be advice, you will be charged 50 usd investigation fee, per every
email sent to us from forexpeacearmy or other company, in order to
cover our legal expenses.

There are also 500 usd fine fee for publishing scam about our company.
We will ask Gerard to send a link to this article to Forex-Swiss. Raimundas has already placed a fraud watch on his credit card, so they won't be able to take any more of his money. We look forward to seeing their invoice.

We can reach no other conclusion but to consider Forex-Swiss to be a scam. We warn traders to not open accounts with this Forex-Swiss. If you have an account with them, we recommend you find the fastest, cheapest way to close it immediately.

EUR/USD Outlook– December 21-25

EUR/USD Outlook– December 21-25
The Euro had a terrible week, hit by bad news and losing major support lines. The upcoming week doesn’t have too many major indicators, but they could still move the Euro. Here’s an outlook for this week’s events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD – the pair is in new ground.

EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

his week’s GfK Consumer Climate survey stands out. Let’s review the events. The extended technical analysis will follow:

1. German GfK Consumer Climate: Published on Tuesday at 7:00 GMT. 2000 consumers are polled about their economic confidence. This index already reached 4.3 points in September, but deteriorated since then down to 3.7 points, as confidence is fragile. It’s predicted to tick down to 3.6 points this time.
2. NBB Business Climate: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. Despite coming from one of the Euro-zone’s smaller countries, Belgium, this indicator is highly regarded, since it’s a wide survey of 6000 businesses. This indicator has improved in the past 7 months and even exceeded expectations, but it still remained in the negative zone. It reached -8.8 points last month. An improvement to -4.3 points is expected now.
3. German Import Prices: Published on Wednesday at 7:00 GMT. In deflationary Europe, each price-related figure matters. Prices of imported good surprised with a rise of 0.5% last month, after falling in the previous month. This isn’t a very stable indicator. Prices are expected to rise by 0.2% this time.
4. French Consumer Spending: Published on Wednesday at 7:45 GMT. The continent’s second largest economy has seen impressing growth in consumer spending in the past two months with a neat rise of 1.1% last month. In both months, spending has been far better than early expectations. Spending is expected to rise by 0.5% this month.
5. Industrial New Orders: Published on Wednesday at 10:00 GMT. Although being a late figure, published almost two months after the measured month ended, this is still an important gauge for the economy. The last 4 months saw a strong growth in this indicator, that exceeded expectations each time. Last month saw the “weakest” growth, with a rise of 1.5% – but this was also far better than expected.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

From the fragile close at 1.4625 last week, the Euro went under this minor support quite soon. It later made an impressive break under the very significant support region of 1.4444 – 1.4480 and fell as low as 1.4260 before closing at 1.4342.

Comparing to last week’s outlook, we have lots of new support lines, as the pair is in a totally different ground. Let’s start with the known lines, that turned from resistance to support lines.

1.4444 is the first resistance line, and it’s a major one. This is were the Euro got stuck in the summer, on its way up, before breaking higher. This line returns to that role. The other part of the area, 1.4480, is a minor resistance line.

Looking up, 1.4626, which very temporarily stopped the pair last week, is another minor resistance line. Further up, 1.48 was the bottom border of a range for a long time, and serves as a major resistance line.

Meet new support lines

1.42 worked as a support line before the Euro broke upwards, and now works again as a support line. It was tested also during this Friday. The pair was 60 pips away.

Further below, 1.40 is a round psychological number, and was also a stepping stone for the Euro when it went up. The round number makes it a strong support line.

The most important support line is much lower, at 1.3750. This was both a resistance line in the spring and later worked as a support line in June. Something really big has to happen before this line is breached.

I continue to to be bearish on EUR/USD.

Economy picks up, but can it maintain pace?

Economy picks up, but can it maintain pace?
Over the past few weeks, there have been better-than-expected reports on employment, retail sales and inventories.

As a result, many economists think gross domestic product could easily top a 4% annual rate in the fourth quarter. That would be the faster rate of growth since the first quarter of 2006.
Some are even more optimistic. Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, has raised his fourth-quarter growth forecast to a 6.4% rate from 4.5%. This would be the fastest pace in nine years.

At some point, economists know that the boost to growth from fiscal stimulus and the inventory rebuilding will ease back. The key question remains whether the recovery can become self-sustaining before the stimulus eases.

Jim O'Sullivan, chief economist at MF Global Inc. in New York, is betting that the economy will accomplish this feat.

Companies will soon start to hire back laid-off workers, he said, boosting spending and income.

Some important voices are sounding notes of caution.

For instance, Harvard economic professor Martin Feldstein and the economic team at Goldman Sachs, both watched closely by other economists, remain pessimistic.

They believe the economy is in danger of running out of steam early next year.

"We ... continue to think that the recovery will be sluggish and that hiring will, if anything, come closer to following the 'jobless recovery' templates of 1991-1992 and 2001-2003," the Goldman Sachs team wrote in an email to clients.

This debate won't be settled this week. Instead, investors will generally be able to enjoy a feast of positive news.

The most critical data for financial markets will come on Thursday with the release of the new orders for long-lasting durable goods for November.

Economists expect durable goods orders to rebound 0.4% in November after a 0.6% fall in October.

Companies are starting to place more orders for big-ticket items, said Jonathan Basile, economist at Credit Suisse.

"Companies have found they don't have enough product on hand recently. They ran down inventories to a point where it was too low," Basile said.

Home sales remain impacted by the government's homebuyer tax credit, which was set to expire in November but has been extended until the middle of next year.

Sales of existing homes probably rose about 2.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.25 million, according to a survey of economists. That translates into a 37% year-over-year increase, the biggest since September 1983, economists at Barclays Capital noted. Thinking that there was a deadline, homebuyers rushed to complete their deals, analysts said. The data will be released on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, sales of new homes probably fell about 2.3% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 420,000. The tax-credit is having a more muted impact on new homes because they typically are more expensive, Barclays said. The data will be released Wednesday.

Income and spending data for November will also be released on Wednesday and is expected to be strong.

"Against all expectations, Americans still appear to be in a shopping mood heading into the holiday season," wrote Meny Grauman, economist at CIBC World Markets Inc in Toronto.

Personal income is expected to rise 0.5% in November, a faster pace than October's. That is based on a 0.6% jump in hours worked and a 0.1% gain in average hourly earnings in the November nonfarm payroll report.

Consumer spending is expected to have popped up at a 0.6% pace based on the November retail sales report that showed a stronger-than-expect increase.

Also on Wednesday, the University of Michigan and Reuters will report a revised estimate of consumer sentiment for December.

The Michigan sentiment reading jumped to 73.4 in the first half of December from 67.4 in November and close to the recent peak in September of 73.5.

Analysts polled by MarketWatch are looking for a result of 74 in the final reading of the month.

20‏/12‏/2009

UPDATE 1-Japan exports show double-dip recession less likely

ECB Said to Start Consulting Banks, Investors on Collatera

Spyker CEO Says EIB Loan Is Biggest Saab Deal Hurdle

Peru to Win More Rating Increases, Credit Suisse Says (Update2)

UBS, Credit Suisse Said to Face Tougher Rules on Liquid Assets

Japan’s Exports Fall at Slowest Pace in 14 Months (Update2)

Japan Nov exports fall 6.2 pct year/year - MOF

Forex-Swiss.com found a new way to grab money from traders

EUR/USD Outlook– December 21-25

Economy picks up, but can it maintain pace?

تصفح الموقع بالعربية

show english mode

عداد الزوار