20‏/01‏/2009

Asia Session - January 20, 2009 2:08 AM

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Some really big moves today in Asia and the biggest of them all was the collapse of the British Pound, which hit a 7 year low against the US Dollar as the UK fell deeper into recession. Adding to the woes of the British Isles was Royal Bank of Scotland recording what looks to be the biggest loss in the history of all corporations in the UK, the stock led all banking stocks lower as it was down by over 65%. GBP/USD was destroyed this trade day, falling from early session highs near 1.4440, to just near 1.4135. This move is a continuation from yesterdays slip from just over 1.4900. A short squeeze near the bottom of the move was over dramatic due to thin markets, and pushed the pair to 1.4345. 1.4250-60 was where we were as of this writing. EUR/GPB was dramatic in its moves as well, climbing from near 0.9050 to a perch at 0.9180, and then the pair fell off a cliff, and dropped a full handle in a matter of minutes. Look for UK CPI later in the Europe session.

The Euro continued it's downward trend today after Spain was downgraded by Standard & Poor's, the single European Currency fell from 1.3100 to just near 1.2980 against the US Dollar. With German and Euro-Zone ZEW data due later, the softening Euro may continue.

The Yen strengthened against the Dollar as risk aversion was again in play in lieu of a dismal day in Asian stocks. USD/JPY dropped from 90.69 to near 90.10. As is the case across the board, bank stock led the fall, in this case HSBC in Hong Kong. GBP/JPY hit what looked like a record low near 127.40.

Tomorrow in the US is the long awaited Presidential Inauguration of Barak Obama, if you care to look back to our ''2008 Predictions'' from one year ago, you will see that our foresight was right on the money as we believed that he would be in the White House before he was even a frontrunner in the primaries.......Enjoy the show.

Upcoming Economic Data Releases (London Session):

1/20/2009

9:30

UK

CPI (MoM)

DEC

-0.10%

-0.90%

1/20/2009

9:30

UK

CPI (YoY)

DEC

4.10%

2.60%

1/20/2009

9:30

UK

Core CPI YOY

DEC

2.00%

1.30%

1/20/2009

9:30

UK

Retail Price Index

DEC

216

212.9

1/20/2009

9:30

UK

RPI (MoM)

DEC

-0.80%

-1.50%

1/20/2009

9:30

UK

RPI (YoY)

DEC

3.00%

0.80%

1/20/2009

9:30

UK

RPI Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY)

DEC

3.90%

2.40%

1/20/2009

10:00

GE

ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment)

JAN

-45.2

-43.1

1/20/2009

10:00

GE

Zew Survey (Current Situation)

JAN

-64.5

-71.5

1/20/2009

10:00

EC

ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment)

JAN

-46.1

-46

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Congress Gets on Board for TARP: Are Tax Cuts Next?

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Fingers are being crossed for economic stimulus
The economy is The News lately. Especially the U.S. economy. And yesterday Congress voted to release the last half of the TARP funds approved for economic stimulus last year. Now, Congress is turning its attention to the economic stimulus plan suggested in part by Barack Obama.

The economic stimulus bill includes funding for:

  • Infrastructure.
  • Tax cuts.
  • Schools.
  • State governments.
  • Health care.
  • Technology.
  • Unemployment.
  • Alternative energy development.

It remains to be seen whether this bill is passed, and whether or not it truly does stimulate the economy.

For now, though, the economic troubles plaguing the U.S. are not causing trouble for the U.S. dollar.

Quite the opposite; with the global economy in ruins, the U.S. dollar is the safe haven currency of choice.

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U.K. Announces Additional Bailout for Financial Market

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Sterling falls in currency trading on new planToday, the U.K. has announced a new, massive bailout for the financial markets. The new program is means to be aggressive, and will set up asset purchases. Unfortunately, many of these assets are toxic, and that means that investors are wary of the plan.

Calculated Risk offers some of the details of the newly aggressive bailout plan in Britain:

  • Consumer car loans will be exchanged for government bonds in an extension of the Special Liquidity Scheme.
  • Northern Rock (state owned) will be required to provide more mortgages.
  • The Credit Guarantee Scheme will be extended until year’s end.
  • Billions in mortgage-backed securities will be guaranteed.

Sterling falls in currency trading as plan is unveiled

This new plan offers further proof that the U.K. economy is in big trouble. Things haven’t been improving, and this bailout of the financial market simply underscores the point. As a result,
the sterling is dropping in currency trading on the FX market as economic recovery is seen as something likely to take place in the far distant future.

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forex news - U.S. Bailout Expectations Help Down Under Currencies in Forex Trading

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Aussie, kiwi do well in currency trading — for nowRight now,

things are looking pretty good for down under currencies in forex trading.

The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar are both making gains against the Japanese yen as risk appetite makes a tentative appearance and high yielding currencies get a little more play.

Stock markets help down under currencies in forex trading

One of the main reasons that the Aussie and the kiwi are doing so well right now in currency trading is due to the fact that stock markets are turning toward optimism.

With talk of bailout in the U.S., there are hopes for economic stimulus, and that is fueling investment in the stock market right now.

Because they are currencies that rely on the global economy, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar are likely to see a bounce as hope returns for economic recovery led by the U.S.

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forex news / Spanish Downgrade Affects Euro in Forex Trading

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EUR/USD pulls back in currency tradingEarlier today, the euro appeared to be making some headway in forex trading. That has stopped however, and EUR/USD has changed course in currency trading, on the news that Spanish government debt has been downgraded.

The euro is suffering as its individual members begin to have problems, contributing to the instability of the overall performance of the euro in forex trading.

ActionForex reports on the euro zone currency:

Today’s news also puts into focus the question of whether the euro, as a currency without a country, can withstand the stress of the current economic slowdown The EUR/USD pair declined in the immediate aftermath of the news and remains near day’s lows as traders become increasingly concerned about the credit worthiness of the individual members of the union.

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forex news - Earnings News to Affect Forex Trading Forecast

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Greenback awaits currency trading directionLast week, earnings began rolling out in the U.S. for the 4th quarter of 2008 — but just a trickle. This week, though, the earnings reports really start rolling in. And what happens this week is likely to affect the forex trading forecast.

So, while bailout news has been dominating the greenback in currency trading lately, it is likely to take a backseat for a little while.

FX Street reports on earnings expected this week:

Today we have Logitech, tomorrow IBM and Johnson & Johnson, on Wednesday United Technologies, on Thursday Google, Microsoft, Nokia, Lockheed Martin and Bank of New York Mellon and finally on Friday GE and Xerox. The impact of these results and the ones coming next week may be much greater than a short term relief after the bailout of Bank of America.

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forex news - Russian Ruble Continues Its Descent in Foreign Exchange

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Ruble devalued again in forex tradingThe Russian ruble has been seeing serious problems as it attempts to maintain some sort of value in foreign exchange. And the problems continue today. Once against, the Russian government has devalued the ruble in forex trading — and still no one wants to purchase rubles.

Indeed, the sad thing is that many feel that the ruble is still overvalued — even after 6 ruble devaluations so far this year. Concerns about continued drops in the price of oil are causing skepticism about how well the Russian ruble will hold up in foreign exchange.

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New York Session / January 19, 2009 5:44 PM

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Today's Market Update


Some really big moves today in Asia and the biggest of them all was the collapse of the British Pound, which hit a 7 year low against the US Dollar as the UK fell deeper into recession. Adding to the woes of the British Isles was Royal Bank of Scotland recording what looks to be the biggest loss in the history of all corporations in the UK, the stock led all banking stocks lower as it was down by over 65%. GBP/USD was destroyed this trade day, falling from early session highs near 1.4440, to just near 1.4135. This move is a continuation from yesterdays slip from just over 1.4900. A short squeeze near the bottom of the move was over dramatic due to thin markets, and pushed the pair to 1.4345. 1.4250-60 was where we were as of this writing. EUR/GPB was dramatic in its moves as well, climbing from near 0.9050 to a perch at 0.9180, and then the pair fell off a cliff, and dropped a full handle in a matter of minutes. Look for UK CPI later in the Europe session.

The Euro continued it's downward trend today after Spain was downgraded by Standard & Poor's, the single European Currency fell from 1.3100 to just near 1.2980 against the US Dollar. With German and Euro-Zone ZEW data due later, the softening Euro may continue.

The Yen strengthened against the Dollar as risk aversion was again in play in lieu of a dismal day in Asian stocks. USD/JPY dropped from 90.69 to near 90.10. As is the case across the board, bank stock led the fall, in this case HSBC in Hong Kong. GBP/JPY hit what looked like a record low near 127.40.

Tomorrow in the US is the long awaited Presidential Inauguration of Barak Obama, if you care to look back to our ''2008 Predictions'' from one year ago, you will see that our foresight was right on the money as we believed that he would be in the White House before he was even a frontrunner in the primaries.......Enjoy the show.

Upcoming Economic Data Releases (London Session):

1/20/2009

9:30

UK

CPI (MoM)

DEC

-0.10%

-0.90%

1/20/2009

9:30

UK

CPI (YoY)

DEC

4.10%

2.60%

1/20/2009

9:30

UK

Core CPI YOY

DEC

2.00%

1.30%

1/20/2009

9:30

UK

Retail Price Index

DEC

216

212.9

1/20/2009

9:30

UK

RPI (MoM)

DEC

-0.80%

-1.50%

1/20/2009

9:30

UK

RPI (YoY)

DEC

3.00%

0.80%

1/20/2009

9:30

UK

RPI Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY)

DEC

3.90%

2.40%

1/20/2009

10:00

GE

ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment)

JAN

-45.2

-43.1

1/20/2009

10:00

GE

Zew Survey (Current Situation)

JAN

-64.5

-71.5

1/20/2009

10:00

EC

ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment)

JAN

-46.1

-46

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